3 ms·

Look at the "light drinking"[] result in figure 2 - most whiskers cross the 1.0 line when it's not downright in the left-hand side! (e.g. lung cancer relative

Look at the "light drinking"[] result in figure 2 - most whiskers cross the 1.0 line when it's not downright in the left-hand side! (e.g. lung cancer relative risk - if you trust that result, it means light drinking _improves_ your lung cancer prospects). They flat out state that lymphoma risk is inversely correlated with drinking. AND it's only about cancer - no word about other diseases (e.g. ischemic heart disease, where there are studies showing light wine drinking improve your odds). Overall, your meta-study hardly proves that "any quantity of alcohol is bad for your health"; quite the contrary in fact, I'd say. [] 1 glass of wine a day according to their definition.

Retric 8y ago
You are ignoring what the paper actually says. Each cancer type is independently analyzed independently. 1 wine a day measurably increases overal cancer risks as stated by the authors. Rather than assuming you have a better understanding after a quick analysis you may want to rethink your analysis. Hint the base rate for each cancer is not equivalent.
- virgilp 8y ago
  > 1 wine a day measurably increases overal cancer risks as stated by the authors. Where? I just re-read it and didn't see this conclusion. (And even if they did - it's just cancer. What if we include heart diseases, too?)
  - Retric 8y ago
    Beyond the original statement. “Every category of drinking was associated with an increased risk of cancer.” “In the present study, alcohol drinking was associated withcancer of the oral cavity and pharynx, oesophagus (SCC) andfemale breast even at low doses. These results represent an updateand corroboration of previously published findings on the linkbetween light alcohol drinking and cancer (Bagnardi et al, 2013).Given the high proportion of light drinkers in the population andthe high incidence of these tumours, especially breast cancer(Ferlay et al, 2010), even small increases in cancer risk might be of great public health relevance. Approximately 5000 deaths from oraland pharyngeal cancer, 24 000 from oesophageal SCC and 5000 from breast cancer were attributable to light drinking in 2004worldwide (Bagnardi et al, 2013).” Yes, some cancers where negatively associated with drinking, but the net effect was negative over the range of cancers studied. As to light drinking and heart disease, that link is under some question as to the relative gain from drinking vs associated lifestyle factors. Short term controlled studies suggest some benifit, but it’s less clear for younger drinkers and people with good cardiovascular heath. At a guess, the benifit of moderate drinking might win somewhere between 40 and 70 depending on specific risk factors.

Retric 8y ago

You are ignoring what the paper actually says. Each cancer type is independently analyzed independently. 1 wine a day measurably increases overal cancer risks as stated by the authors. Rather than assuming you have a better understanding after a quick analysis you may want to rethink your analysis. Hint the base rate for each cancer is not equivalent.

virgilp 8y ago
> 1 wine a day measurably increases overal cancer risks as stated by the authors. Where? I just re-read it and didn't see this conclusion. (And even if they did - it's just cancer. What if we include heart diseases, too?)
- Retric 8y ago
  Beyond the original statement. “Every category of drinking was associated with an increased risk of cancer.” “In the present study, alcohol drinking was associated withcancer of the oral cavity and pharynx, oesophagus (SCC) andfemale breast even at low doses. These results represent an updateand corroboration of previously published findings on the linkbetween light alcohol drinking and cancer (Bagnardi et al, 2013).Given the high proportion of light drinkers in the population andthe high incidence of these tumours, especially breast cancer(Ferlay et al, 2010), even small increases in cancer risk might be of great public health relevance. Approximately 5000 deaths from oraland pharyngeal cancer, 24 000 from oesophageal SCC and 5000 from breast cancer were attributable to light drinking in 2004worldwide (Bagnardi et al, 2013).” Yes, some cancers where negatively associated with drinking, but the net effect was negative over the range of cancers studied. As to light drinking and heart disease, that link is under some question as to the relative gain from drinking vs associated lifestyle factors. Short term controlled studies suggest some benifit, but it’s less clear for younger drinkers and people with good cardiovascular heath. At a guess, the benifit of moderate drinking might win somewhere between 40 and 70 depending on specific risk factors.