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Given the impact of the whole Brexit process on the British economy since the referendum date, I don't really see many EU countries willing to repeat the experi

by angott 8y ago

Given the impact of the whole Brexit process on the British economy since the referendum date, I don't really see many EU countries willing to repeat the experiment again.

Silhouette 8y ago
That fits the mood, at least among the pro-Remain press and social circles, but I'm not sure how objectively true it is. Based on the facts we can now measure, quite a lot of the negative predictions from before the referendum about the results of a Leave vote have not proved to be accurate. We haven't gone anywhere near entering a recession, there weren't emergency budgets costing households thousands of pounds, house prices haven't collapsed, etc. Inevitably this also reduces the credibility of the same sources when they now predict severe negative effects over the longer term based on similar models and assumptions. At least in some respects, it appears that the UK economy may be doing better than it has for some time. In some other respects, it's doing worse, but whether the cause is Brexit-related or other factors like austerity or increasingly protectionist global trade is unclear. Probably the two biggest economic effects that have surely been triggered by Brexit itself are the softening of Sterling and the shift in migration patterns, but those are also areas where the change isn't inherently bad. Certainly there are other negative results as well, but a lot of those are more due to uncertainty and negative sentiment than anything that has actually happened so far, so while they are clearly bad for the UK and neither our government nor the EU leadership is going to win any prizes for effective government and leadership any time soon, it wouldn't necessarily be the case that another state considering leaving in the future would mishandle the process as badly as the UK and EU have this time. It's a fascinating social experiment to watch, particularly as someone who is conflicted on the issue and has a lot of friends and family on both sides of the debate, because if you step back and try to look at reality from a neutral point of view, there's a lot of confirmation bias and selective reporting happening on both sides.

by angott 8y ago

Given the impact of the whole Brexit process on the British economy since the referendum date, I don't really see many EU countries willing to repeat the experiment again.

Silhouette 8y ago

That fits the mood, at least among the pro-Remain press and social circles, but I'm not sure how objectively true it is. Based on the facts we can now measure, quite a lot of the negative predictions from before the referendum about the results of a Leave vote have not proved to be accurate. We haven't gone anywhere near entering a recession, there weren't emergency budgets costing households thousands of pounds, house prices haven't collapsed, etc. Inevitably this also reduces the credibility of the same sources when they now predict severe negative effects over the longer term based on similar models and assumptions. At least in some respects, it appears that the UK economy may be doing better than it has for some time. In some other respects, it's doing worse, but whether the cause is Brexit-related or other factors like austerity or increasingly protectionist global trade is unclear. Probably the two biggest economic effects that have surely been triggered by Brexit itself are the softening of Sterling and the shift in migration patterns, but those are also areas where the change isn't inherently bad. Certainly there are other negative results as well, but a lot of those are more due to uncertainty and negative sentiment than anything that has actually happened so far, so while they are clearly bad for the UK and neither our government nor the EU leadership is going to win any prizes for effective government and leadership any time soon, it wouldn't necessarily be the case that another state considering leaving in the future would mishandle the process as badly as the UK and EU have this time. It's a fascinating social experiment to watch, particularly as someone who is conflicted on the issue and has a lot of friends and family on both sides of the debate, because if you step back and try to look at reality from a neutral point of view, there's a lot of confirmation bias and selective reporting happening on both sides.