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The UK declared Brexit after Cameron obtained a special deal with the EU. They won't get anything like that if they come back after a Brexit fiasco, they don't

The UK declared Brexit after Cameron obtained a special deal with the EU. They won't get anything like that if they come back after a Brexit fiasco, they don't have any negotiating power anymore.

coldtea 8y ago
Agreements for trade aside (which they can negotiate with EU still, and they will), why would they want to "come back"? To have their monetary police decided with undue Berlin influence and restricted lawmaking sovereignty?
- DanBC 8y ago
  > To have their monetary police decided with undue Berlin influence and restricted lawmaking sovereignty? We're still going to have those. We just won't be at the table to have any kind of influence.
- icebraining 8y ago
  Agreements for trade are not a boolean issue; you can have better or worse ones. They could want to come back if offered a better deal than they get by being outside.
- Tomte 8y ago
  No EU hater has so far been able to explain to me how exactly Germany is forcing all other member states to acquiesce to a monetary policy that's only in Germany's interest. Please explain in detail how Berlin is overcoming the fact that it is vastly outnumbered in the deciding (and voting) bodies.
  - coldtea 8y ago
    By using its economic and diplomatic might, unofficial channels, backroom deals, and friendly (or bought) satellite countries that vote the way they're told. The nominal equality (e.g. re: number of votes) is like that old Anatole France quote: "The law, in its majestic equality, forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal their bread.".
    - Tomte 8y ago
      Strangely, neither France, nor the UK or any other of the large European countries could ever counter that with their own unofficial channels and backroom deals. They must be real Gentlemen, not to stoop that low!
  - sonnyblarney 8y ago
    This is really very simple. The Euro has strict monetary policy. This favours economies like those of Germany, and makes it very difficult for economies that often need to dilute their currencies to stay competitive. In a 'currency union', basically, there can be no shenanigans. It has to be a 'strict' currency, because it's not like the French are going to allow the Poles to just start 'printing Euros'. So, by the very nature of the shared currency, it's going to be strict. When Italy, Spain and Greece start to have trouble making bond payments - this poses a problem. They can't just start printing Liras or Drachmas anymore. When their economies are faltering - they would normally print money, dilute their currency, meaning everyone in the country is taking a secret pay cut, retirees get less benefits vis-a-vis other countries. But it's stealthy. Nobody sees it. But in Euros ... everything would have to be repriced for the economy to remain competitive. People have to accept lower pay. Retirees lower benefits. That is politically impossible. And so you end up with high unemployment for a very long time while it sinks in that they are poor. Germany was very wary of entering into the Euro because of their historical fears of currency devaluation. It was a big thing for them, to the point that it was a major factor in the rise of Nazism, and that whole WW2 thing. So when they did it, there had to be controls. Most citizens of Europe would prefer a more trade-like situation, not a true political union. The EU is ultimately an elitist project and it's showing serious signs of strain.

The UK declared Brexit after Cameron obtained a special deal with the EU. They won't get anything like that if they come back after a Brexit fiasco, they don't have any negotiating power anymore.

coldtea 8y ago

Agreements for trade aside (which they can negotiate with EU still, and they will), why would they want to "come back"? To have their monetary police decided with undue Berlin influence and restricted lawmaking sovereignty?

DanBC 8y ago
> To have their monetary police decided with undue Berlin influence and restricted lawmaking sovereignty? We're still going to have those. We just won't be at the table to have any kind of influence.
icebraining 8y ago
Agreements for trade are not a boolean issue; you can have better or worse ones. They could want to come back if offered a better deal than they get by being outside.
Tomte 8y ago
No EU hater has so far been able to explain to me how exactly Germany is forcing all other member states to acquiesce to a monetary policy that's only in Germany's interest. Please explain in detail how Berlin is overcoming the fact that it is vastly outnumbered in the deciding (and voting) bodies.
- coldtea 8y ago
  By using its economic and diplomatic might, unofficial channels, backroom deals, and friendly (or bought) satellite countries that vote the way they're told. The nominal equality (e.g. re: number of votes) is like that old Anatole France quote: "The law, in its majestic equality, forbids rich and poor alike to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal their bread.".
  - Tomte 8y ago
    Strangely, neither France, nor the UK or any other of the large European countries could ever counter that with their own unofficial channels and backroom deals. They must be real Gentlemen, not to stoop that low!
- sonnyblarney 8y ago
  This is really very simple. The Euro has strict monetary policy. This favours economies like those of Germany, and makes it very difficult for economies that often need to dilute their currencies to stay competitive. In a 'currency union', basically, there can be no shenanigans. It has to be a 'strict' currency, because it's not like the French are going to allow the Poles to just start 'printing Euros'. So, by the very nature of the shared currency, it's going to be strict. When Italy, Spain and Greece start to have trouble making bond payments - this poses a problem. They can't just start printing Liras or Drachmas anymore. When their economies are faltering - they would normally print money, dilute their currency, meaning everyone in the country is taking a secret pay cut, retirees get less benefits vis-a-vis other countries. But it's stealthy. Nobody sees it. But in Euros ... everything would have to be repriced for the economy to remain competitive. People have to accept lower pay. Retirees lower benefits. That is politically impossible. And so you end up with high unemployment for a very long time while it sinks in that they are poor. Germany was very wary of entering into the Euro because of their historical fears of currency devaluation. It was a big thing for them, to the point that it was a major factor in the rise of Nazism, and that whole WW2 thing. So when they did it, there had to be controls. Most citizens of Europe would prefer a more trade-like situation, not a true political union. The EU is ultimately an elitist project and it's showing serious signs of strain.