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So many comments about product features and dongles, USB-C and certain design elements of Apple notebooks… these are all trivial. Apple’s growth for the last 1

So many comments about product features and dongles, USB-C and certain design elements of Apple notebooks… these are all trivial. Apple’s growth for the last 10 years has been very heavily weighted towards the iPhone, and now everyone has one… or two or three or their are on their 11th. The market saturated. Everything is an iPhone, even non-iPhones. It wasn’t going to continue forever. It’s why they’ve been creating new products like the Apple TV and Apple Watch. But they haven’t yet found something like the iPhone that literally everyone wants. Maybe they find a universal computing platform, maybe they don’t. But Apple’s future doesn’t rest on adding back the headphone jack or getting rid of the touchbar or so-called “game changing” or “killer” features on existing platforms. If you want Apple to sell one billion devices again then it’s gotta be some real sci-fi level shit. As pretty as the iPhone was, it’s the software that made it magic and set a new standard for how we interact with machines. That “next thing” is probably voice, but no one even seems close. Siri, Alexa, Google Now, Cortana… it’s BlackBerry, Nokia, Palm, etc.. Give me that Hollywood-level magic where the machine gets it right 99% of the time, goes beyond what I thought possible and responds instantly. Impossible? Maybe. But so was a fully optimized touch-based OS before someone did it.

sparkling 8y ago
> That “next thing” is probably voice, but no one even seems close. Am i the only person who has zero interest in voice control? I got a iPhone 4S very early, the first phone that had Siri installed and i can not remember ever using it. Not even trying it out just for fun.
- themagician 8y ago
  You could have said that about touch screens before the iPhone too. Even after it came out people remained skeptical. No one wanted to tap on a sheet of glass when it sucked. One day it didn’t suck anymore and everything was different. 10 years and a billion devices later it worked out. Voice will have the same revolution at some point. You have zero interest in it now because it sucks. When someone makes it not suck so badly you’ll give it another go.
  - eeeeeeeeeeeee 8y ago
    Can you imagine an occupation where you have to give speeches all day? This is voice control. I think people massively overstate the future of voice control. I think it will be used for small things “turn on lights” but not for full computing control interface.
- natecavanaugh 8y ago
  I have to mostly agree. There are times, very few, when it's useful, and I can see some more areas where it might have some benefit, but honestly? I don't want the world listening to my searches. I think AR has more potential growth, but repeating the iPhones success is probably going to be from left field and not in an obvious area.
- jaabe 8y ago
  You’re likely not alone, we seldom are, but in my anecdotal point of view most people seem to like it. I personally doubt it’ll be the “next” thing though. For one it’s already here. It’s not perfect but it works most of the time, and unless someone actually develops true AI, I just see it altering the world any way close to what the smartphone did. It’s a nice way to interface, but it’s not really that great in public.
  - themagician 8y ago
    I like playing with Alexa, which is probably the most feature complete, but lets be real it doesn’t work “most of the time”. It’s garbage. Absolute garbage. Even basic dictation is maybe 90% accurate at best, which makes it virtually useless.
- nlh 8y ago
  Not at all - I can't stand voice UI (at the moment). The problem with voice UI as I see it is that until it's perfect, it's horrible. Even if Siri is 80% great, the 20% of the time I have to repeat myself 3, 4, 5 times to get what I want, I've now spent more time than if I'd just using touch UI in the first place. Eventually that gets better, but until then it's too frustrating / slower than just typing.
  - themagician 8y ago
    If you recall, that’s how touch screens used to be. You’d either have to use a stylus or sometimes press multiple times. Even the virtual keyboards on old devices weren’t designed. All the keys were right next to each other, there was no intelligent touch correction/rejection. Pre iPhone was pretty bad.
  - mercer 8y ago
    Aside from that I don't imagine voice will ever be 'dominant' as a UI until we can do so without making sounds. So much of my day consists of using technology while other people are doing the same thing in my vicinity, and even just that one person in the room with a non-silent device is already annoying, let alone a room full of people talking to themselves.
    - c1sc0 8y ago
      Subvocalisation or telepathic interfaces should solve that. I think that is actually closer than we think it is.
  - jonknee 8y ago
    Voice calls always work and I dumped them in favor of texting as soon as it was an option. I just don't want to use voice outside of special situations.
  - Nerdfest 8y ago
    Try Google Assistant. Most of the studies and tests show it's far more usable than Siri. It still misses things too of course.
nlh 8y ago
I have a slightly different take -- I think that 'next thing' is AR (glasses, contacts, etc.), and I think Apple is as poised as anyone to take advantage of it. The big revolutions in computing devices have been room full of equipment + punch cards -> desktop w/ big display -> laptop w/ small display -> phone with really small display. I think the logical next move after isn't ever-bigger phones/phablets/tablets, it's contact lens / glasses device with A/R display.
- acct1771 8y ago
  Contact detects hands with laser, shows you AR on your side. Perfect.
ksec 8y ago
There may never be another "iPhone" or Smartphone market. I am not aware of any other product in human history that has access to near 80% of adults in developed countries, and has a replacement cycle in 2 to 4 years. I don't think AR will be it, I don't want Glasses or even Contacts Lens. There aren't any more ground breaking things left. I mean even the iPhone concept goes back as far as Newton. What Apple needs is to slowly grows its user base in key market like China and India, while tries to not lose market usage shares in others. I have always wanted or argued that Apple should roll out its iPhone upgrade programme worldwide. And has payment terms from 24 months and 48 months. By default it should include Apple Care+ and iCloud Backup Storage, and allow its customers to upgrade one year before their programme ends. Further locking them in to the ecosystem. Apple has plenty of cash and the spread out payment would not cause them cash flow problem, which only a few company on the smartphone market could do. Customers could also choose to add Apple Music, Apple TV or Apple Magazine to their Subscription. Using payment through Apple Pay or Apple Cash ( Which is still not rolled out outside US ). And all customer had to do is to choose their Network via eSIM. There is no reason why Apple Pay can't be the central services to pay everything from electrify bills, water bills, mobile bills etc. And has a non cloud / on devices Financial Planning shown on my phone. Monthly spending etc. They talked about getting rid of Wallet, but 4 years have passed since then and they have nothing to show for. What cant I get rid of my loyalty and rewards cards? ( That is only just happening in Japan, and likely take a lot longer worldwide ). Why I still need ATM cards to get cash? Why aren't Apple actively working with banks to give me an option not to carry it? 7 Years since Steve Jobs passed away. The first four were still OK, up to iPhone 6s. But there has been clearly a lack of progress on many front, all while they were breaking records and earning more profits years after years. For the past three years I gave them benefits of doubt since they were too focused on Apple Park. But 2019 may likely be the last year my patients wears off and think Apple is no longer the Apple it once were. Actually Steve Jobs kind of predicted this: “they cared about making a lot of money… they got very greedy and instead of following the original trajectory of the original vision which was to make this thing an appliance and get this out there to as many people as possible, they went for profits, and they made outlandish profits for about 4 years, one of the most profitable companies in America for 4 years, and what that cost them was their future, because what they should have been doing was making rational profits…” Starts at minute 38:00: https://youtu.be/M6Oxl5dAnR0 https://youtu.be/M6Oxl5dAnR0
expertentipp 8y ago
I don't image being interested in voice, unless some physical disability would not allow me to interact with the eletronic devices otherwise. Then the advent of voice came in the wrong era when the tracking/ad business models decide about everything and from the fundaments it'll be designed that the user will be unable to block or interfere with the unneeded services. One word and you're hugged to death by advertisers. Second word and you're on the no-fly list. The third word left for second-tier entities for monetization.
- eeeeeeeeeeeee 8y ago
  Same here. I really have no interest in talking for eight hours to an inanimate object. Maybe it’s just me, but if I’ve been talking for four hours a day, I can feel it the next day as throat itch.

sparkling 8y ago

> That “next thing” is probably voice, but no one even seems close. Am i the only person who has zero interest in voice control? I got a iPhone 4S very early, the first phone that had Siri installed and i can not remember ever using it. Not even trying it out just for fun.

themagician 8y ago
You could have said that about touch screens before the iPhone too. Even after it came out people remained skeptical. No one wanted to tap on a sheet of glass when it sucked. One day it didn’t suck anymore and everything was different. 10 years and a billion devices later it worked out. Voice will have the same revolution at some point. You have zero interest in it now because it sucks. When someone makes it not suck so badly you’ll give it another go.
- eeeeeeeeeeeee 8y ago
  Can you imagine an occupation where you have to give speeches all day? This is voice control. I think people massively overstate the future of voice control. I think it will be used for small things “turn on lights” but not for full computing control interface.
natecavanaugh 8y ago
I have to mostly agree. There are times, very few, when it's useful, and I can see some more areas where it might have some benefit, but honestly? I don't want the world listening to my searches. I think AR has more potential growth, but repeating the iPhones success is probably going to be from left field and not in an obvious area.
jaabe 8y ago
You’re likely not alone, we seldom are, but in my anecdotal point of view most people seem to like it. I personally doubt it’ll be the “next” thing though. For one it’s already here. It’s not perfect but it works most of the time, and unless someone actually develops true AI, I just see it altering the world any way close to what the smartphone did. It’s a nice way to interface, but it’s not really that great in public.
- themagician 8y ago
  I like playing with Alexa, which is probably the most feature complete, but lets be real it doesn’t work “most of the time”. It’s garbage. Absolute garbage. Even basic dictation is maybe 90% accurate at best, which makes it virtually useless.
nlh 8y ago
Not at all - I can't stand voice UI (at the moment). The problem with voice UI as I see it is that until it's perfect, it's horrible. Even if Siri is 80% great, the 20% of the time I have to repeat myself 3, 4, 5 times to get what I want, I've now spent more time than if I'd just using touch UI in the first place. Eventually that gets better, but until then it's too frustrating / slower than just typing.
- themagician 8y ago
  If you recall, that’s how touch screens used to be. You’d either have to use a stylus or sometimes press multiple times. Even the virtual keyboards on old devices weren’t designed. All the keys were right next to each other, there was no intelligent touch correction/rejection. Pre iPhone was pretty bad.
- mercer 8y ago
  Aside from that I don't imagine voice will ever be 'dominant' as a UI until we can do so without making sounds. So much of my day consists of using technology while other people are doing the same thing in my vicinity, and even just that one person in the room with a non-silent device is already annoying, let alone a room full of people talking to themselves.
  - c1sc0 8y ago
    Subvocalisation or telepathic interfaces should solve that. I think that is actually closer than we think it is.
- jonknee 8y ago
  Voice calls always work and I dumped them in favor of texting as soon as it was an option. I just don't want to use voice outside of special situations.
- Nerdfest 8y ago
  Try Google Assistant. Most of the studies and tests show it's far more usable than Siri. It still misses things too of course.

nlh 8y ago

I have a slightly different take -- I think that 'next thing' is AR (glasses, contacts, etc.), and I think Apple is as poised as anyone to take advantage of it. The big revolutions in computing devices have been room full of equipment + punch cards -> desktop w/ big display -> laptop w/ small display -> phone with really small display. I think the logical next move after isn't ever-bigger phones/phablets/tablets, it's contact lens / glasses device with A/R display.

acct1771 8y ago
Contact detects hands with laser, shows you AR on your side. Perfect.

ksec 8y ago

There may never be another "iPhone" or Smartphone market. I am not aware of any other product in human history that has access to near 80% of adults in developed countries, and has a replacement cycle in 2 to 4 years. I don't think AR will be it, I don't want Glasses or even Contacts Lens. There aren't any more ground breaking things left. I mean even the iPhone concept goes back as far as Newton. What Apple needs is to slowly grows its user base in key market like China and India, while tries to not lose market usage shares in others. I have always wanted or argued that Apple should roll out its iPhone upgrade programme worldwide. And has payment terms from 24 months and 48 months. By default it should include Apple Care+ and iCloud Backup Storage, and allow its customers to upgrade one year before their programme ends. Further locking them in to the ecosystem. Apple has plenty of cash and the spread out payment would not cause them cash flow problem, which only a few company on the smartphone market could do. Customers could also choose to add Apple Music, Apple TV or Apple Magazine to their Subscription. Using payment through Apple Pay or Apple Cash ( Which is still not rolled out outside US ). And all customer had to do is to choose their Network via eSIM. There is no reason why Apple Pay can't be the central services to pay everything from electrify bills, water bills, mobile bills etc. And has a non cloud / on devices Financial Planning shown on my phone. Monthly spending etc. They talked about getting rid of Wallet, but 4 years have passed since then and they have nothing to show for. What cant I get rid of my loyalty and rewards cards? ( That is only just happening in Japan, and likely take a lot longer worldwide ). Why I still need ATM cards to get cash? Why aren't Apple actively working with banks to give me an option not to carry it? 7 Years since Steve Jobs passed away. The first four were still OK, up to iPhone 6s. But there has been clearly a lack of progress on many front, all while they were breaking records and earning more profits years after years. For the past three years I gave them benefits of doubt since they were too focused on Apple Park. But 2019 may likely be the last year my patients wears off and think Apple is no longer the Apple it once were. Actually Steve Jobs kind of predicted this: “they cared about making a lot of money… they got very greedy and instead of following the original trajectory of the original vision which was to make this thing an appliance and get this out there to as many people as possible, they went for profits, and they made outlandish profits for about 4 years, one of the most profitable companies in America for 4 years, and what that cost them was their future, because what they should have been doing was making rational profits…” Starts at minute 38:00: https://youtu.be/M6Oxl5dAnR0 https://youtu.be/M6Oxl5dAnR0

expertentipp 8y ago

I don't image being interested in voice, unless some physical disability would not allow me to interact with the eletronic devices otherwise. Then the advent of voice came in the wrong era when the tracking/ad business models decide about everything and from the fundaments it'll be designed that the user will be unable to block or interfere with the unneeded services. One word and you're hugged to death by advertisers. Second word and you're on the no-fly list. The third word left for second-tier entities for monetization.

eeeeeeeeeeeee 8y ago
Same here. I really have no interest in talking for eight hours to an inanimate object. Maybe it’s just me, but if I’ve been talking for four hours a day, I can feel it the next day as throat itch.