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Statistics are bullshit. God help us when we replace judges with ML-powered blackboxes. Previous history is only a good indicator of future performance because

Statistics are bullshit. God help us when we replace judges with ML-powered blackboxes. Previous history is only a good indicator of future performance because we wrote the rules that way. When you're taken out of society for a few years and the world moves on without you, the only connections you've made upon release are with other criminals. And when your record is made public and discreetly used to discriminate against you as a job candidate, is it any wonder so many criminals reoffend? It's all too easy to be tempted back into easy (or illegitimate) money when you're surrounded by people playing that game. Funny thing is, it's acknowledged to be a real problem-- the parole system tries to discourage you from maintaining associations with criminals as a condition of release-- but it isn't realistic depending on where you're from or what support you have.

barry-cotter 8y ago
If statistics are bullshit I’m sure you’ll never refer to the below evidence. If you refuse to look at or listen to evidence unless it’s ideologically congenial you’re not a thinker, you’re a hack. https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/reasonable-doubt-new-look-whether-prison-growth-cuts-crime https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/reasonable-doubt-new-l... > I estimate, that at typical policy margins in the United States today, decarceration has zero net impact on crime outside of prison. That estimate is uncertain, but at least as much evidence suggests that decarceration reduces crime as increases it. The crux of the matter is that tougher sentences hardly deter crime, and that while imprisoning people temporarily stops them from committing crime outside prison walls, it also tends to increase their criminality after release. As a result, “tough-on-crime” initiatives can reduce crime in the short run but cause offsetting harm in the long run.

barry-cotter 8y ago

If statistics are bullshit I’m sure you’ll never refer to the below evidence. If you refuse to look at or listen to evidence unless it’s ideologically congenial you’re not a thinker, you’re a hack. https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/reasonable-doubt-new-look-whether-prison-growth-cuts-crime https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/reasonable-doubt-new-l... > I estimate, that at typical policy margins in the United States today, decarceration has zero net impact on crime outside of prison. That estimate is uncertain, but at least as much evidence suggests that decarceration reduces crime as increases it. The crux of the matter is that tougher sentences hardly deter crime, and that while imprisoning people temporarily stops them from committing crime outside prison walls, it also tends to increase their criminality after release. As a result, “tough-on-crime” initiatives can reduce crime in the short run but cause offsetting harm in the long run.