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>so if the debt keeps increasing and the interest rates go up then things will turn nasty. Or what happens when something like the Tunguska event happens over
by ryanmercer 8y ago
>so if the debt keeps increasing and the interest rates go up then things will turn nasty.
Or what happens when something like the Tunguska event happens over NYC or London or Tokyo and you suddenly have 500 billion or a trillion in damage including mass casualties and likely hundreds of thousands of dead.
Then what? You just lost a tremendous amount of value and the ability to generate a very large amount of income and probably just completely lost some companies and private individuals that owned debt.
Or if not an asteroid/comet/meteor, what if it's a hurricane barreling right into NYC or 'the big one' hitting one or major cities in California or an Asian city on the ring of fire?
>everyone could liquidate and have some money left over.
Problem with that though is real estate. Real estate in NYC alone is worth something like 1.5 trillion dollars. I imagine at least 10% of that total wealth of the world is just in the real estate in a dozen or two cities. And what happens when global warming leads to flooding of the land of many coastal cities, in fact 14 of the world's 17 largest cities are located along coasts so in 10, 50, 100 years when some of those cities have either had to expend huge amounts of money finding a geoengineering solution, or have been abandoned and are now flooded, what happens with the debt that still exists? Are companies, are people, going to keep servicing loans on property underwater? Are they going to be able to move their manufacturing without taking on large loans at potentially unreasonable rates?
Debt often lasts several decades and we now live in a world where drastic events can happen in days or weeks. 1 nuclear weapon can effectively destroy a city (even if it doesn't outright level the city, the economic implications of even a small nuclear detonation would be catastrophic for the host country at a minimum), single storms can severely impact the lives of millions, a single volcano can displace millions of people for days or weeks like when Eyjafjallajökull erupted in Iceland in 2010 and resulted in a 6 day travel ban that canceled 95,000 flights.
The more debt the world creates, the higher the risk of failure increases by nature but it increases even quicker in the 21st century when there are extreme buying fads and trends, destabilizing climate, weapons of mass destruction.