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> I imagine it went something like this.... >- Apple heavily subsidizes battery replacements for everyone > - Some people decide that they'll stick with their

> I imagine it went something like this.... >- Apple heavily subsidizes battery replacements for everyone > - Some people decide that they'll stick with their phone a bit longer than they otherwise would have, reducing iPhone sales. > - Apple misses their earnings target This is a gross misrepresentation of the report which clearly states "Greater China and other emerging markets accounted for the vast majority of the year-over-year iPhone revenue decline." Battery replacements may have been notable, but it is incorrect to imply that they were the dominant factor.

madeofpalk 8y ago
> Of course there are other factors addressed in the letter, but this issue was notable enough to be included.
- abalone 8y ago
  Despite noting that the comment still implies that battery replacements were the dominant factor why “Apple misses their earnings target.” This is an invalid logical leap in its step by step reasoning.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - tomnipotent 8y ago
    > implies that battery replacements were the dominant factor why No it doesn't, only that it was "notable enough".
    - abalone 8y ago
      Clearly that is not "only" what it says. It jumps directly from "stick with their phone a bit longer... reducing iPhone sales" to "Apple misses their earnings target, likely costing them more in value than it would have cost them to address the root issue." That is very clearly drawing a casual relationship between the two things, and underscores it by stating it "should be a lesson for more companies" on how to avoid such outcomes. The last line is a dodge because, obviously, China's economy is actually the main culprit stated in the report. But I guess some people are going to hear what they want to hear.
      - alien_ 8y ago
        The recent devices are more overpriced than ever and getting over the limit of what ordinary people are willing to pay for a phone. I have an iPhone 6s and my wife had a 6 and needed a new phone. We bought a new Xr but it was a small fortune, even though we're both working in IT and having good income. The phone is a brick and I saw lots of slicker Android phones costing half the price and providing a very similar if not better experience. My next phone is very unlikely to be an iPhone.
        mike10010100 8y ago
        What exactly does this have to do with the comment you're replying to?
      - tomnipotent 8y ago
        > But I guess some people are going to hear what they want to hear. Like what you're doing with these replies and your focus on something the OP didn't say?
        abalone 8y ago
        I’ve entirely focused on what the OP said using extensive direct quotes. Your reply invalid.
  - jwmoz 8y ago
    You're sounding like a robot. Get a grip.
    - abalone 8y ago
      First time I've been insulted for sounding too logical on a programmer forum.
    - tozeur 8y ago
      Please refrain from using ad hominem remarks on Hacker News.
- simonh 8y ago
  Yes of course, but the narrative the OP constructed where this is the only cause mentioned is clearly a misrepresentation.
- criley2 8y ago
  This is a causation/correlation failure IMO OP is attempting to place causation on the battery problem for the earnings miss or the valuation loss. That is not supported by the evidence, which clearly shows that the primary cause had nothing to do with the Western market at all. It's fair criticism, OP is discussing 5% of the problem and presenting it as if it's 100%.
  - swish_bob 8y ago
    OP did not say "mishandling batterygate screwed Apple's earnings", but instead pointed out that something that could have been better handled and would have cost significantly less was considered a big enough mistake to be mentioned. OP not implying causation, they're calling something interesting out.
    - criley2 8y ago
      I fundamentally disagree with your analysis, as OP helpfully listed their entire thinking out: > "It went something like this:" > .... >- Some people decide that they'll stick with their phone a bit ?longer than they otherwise would have, reducing iPhone sales. >- Apple misses their earnings target, likely costing them more in value than it would have cost them to address the root issue in the first place. OP using a list format is implying a causative link between battery issues and earnings targets. OP even suggests that their value would be safe had they simply corrected the battery issue earlier. It's an extremely clear post they made, IMO
      - bchryfrrl 8y ago
        your opinion is extremely clearly based on your mental edits of the post
      - tomnipotent 8y ago
        > a causative link between battery issues and earnings targets There's is a causative link, which is why Apple included it in this report. How is it possible to miss that connection?
dominotw 8y ago
Was battery replacement not available in those areas?
- ddebernardy 8y ago
  My understanding is that the only thing that really matters in China is the availability of WeChat. What phone you've got matters little as a result. So Apple doesn't enjoy its usual iOS-stickiness factor.
  - simonh 8y ago
    That's not quite right, although yes WeChat rules in China. Having the new shiny does matter - source, my wife is Chinese and I have a Chinese sister-in-law and niece both which got the X last year. They are absolutely typical Chinese consumers in this regard. As soon as iPhone because hard to distinguish from other phones they switched away. As soon as iPhones became clearly distinguishable again they switched back. This is not just an observation, they say this is why they did it. I think there are actually three factors hitting Apple in China this year. One is that a disproportionate number of purchasers got the X when it came out because it was so distinctive bringing forward purchases from this year, then there are a lot of Android phones now that look like the X models and the new X models don't look enough different from the original X to look new, finally the economy in China is pretty soft right now and people there are worried about the future.
    - pishpash 8y ago
      You missed the fourth, which is a trade war going on that is inducing a soft boycott of iPhones. Some of those users may be lost permanently to local alternatives.
  - zelos 8y ago
    WhatsApp has pretty much eclipsed iMessage in many markets too.
- helloindia 8y ago
  Battery replacement scheme was available India. But, due to absence of Apple store, users have to go to Apple authorized service vendors where services take days. It took me 5 days to replace the battery in Dec 2018 because battery had to be specially ordered.(I live in major Indian city.) Cheap Android phones from Xiaomi etc are flooding the Indian market. If Apple doesn't ramp up the quality of experience in areas other than Hardware and OS, it's gonna lose whatever market share it has in India.
muse900 8y ago
yes it mentions the battery replacements and emerging markets as well. I think he forgets to mention lack of innovation. It was the first year that I wasn't surprised from the new iPhone at all and none of my friends did. At this point I don't see much difference in having an X model vs XS. You'll tell me that they had S models in the past and worked fine for them, sure... its not the same market anymore. There are very strong competitors using android which has also evolved and its doing really well as an OS vs what it was in the past at way cheaper prices. At the price tag those iPhones are coming at plus the lack of innovation, I only see a constant drop in sales. Personally I upgraded from an iPhone 7 to XS Max, my wife has an iPhone X and I don't see any difference between them, only the size. That plus the fact that I got my hands on some new android phones and got to use them made me think that I might change to android when my next upgrade is due. The apple ecosystem seems to be okish but I can't really say that it will keep me from changing. And truth be told there are quite a few solutions out there for them to become innovative again like the new ipad pro... have it use OS instead of iOS, that will definitely make people switch over to that and what comes with its ecosystem e.g pairing your mobile phone etc. Also airpods 2, just make some airpods with water resistance etc maybe improve connectivity a bit. Its not like we are requesting crazy innovation here, just simple solutions that will make us stick with the apple ecosystem. Disclaimer: I was an avid windows user and android phone user up till iphone 5s came out, I switched to 5s and the difference on iOS quality vs Android was massive. Due to work I also started working with a mac and so I joined the ecosystem and I can't say am very displeased apart from the price tag, but seeing how Android has progressed over the years and how stock Android can be even superior to iOS has made me thinking of changing back.
- HNLogInShit 8y ago
  What do you expect of this "innovation?" Phones are a mature market now. How much innovation is there in word processors? I'd like to think that Apple's regressions are finally costing it. Idiotic moves like the elimination of the headphone jack from devices that Apple wants us to consume Apple Music with SHOULD result in a market smackdown. As should astronomical prices for increasingly crippled products. Apple's physical design is now abysmal, with the removal of physical buttons from phones, the embarrassing emoji bar (and elimination of a dozen keys from an already pathetic keyboard) on the so-called MacBook "Pro"... not to mention that Apple computers are now glued-together schlock with soldered-in RAM and drives. Now, when your drive fails (and it WILL fail), you get to throw the whole $4000 computer away because Apple made it disposable junk. Macs should be sold in blister packs hanging from pegs at Walgreens. The real "innovation" here would be for Apple to admit its blunders, fire Jony Ive, and bring usefulness back with a vengeance. Their fear of it is just as irrational as Trump supporters.
mike10010100 8y ago
It's also important to note that China is generally experiencing a harsh economic slowdown. https://theweek.com/speedreads/815565/data-reportedly-signals-chinas-economic-slowdown-might-worse-than-beijing-suggests https://theweek.com/speedreads/815565/data-reportedly-signal... It would seem that this issue is far broader than simply Apple's strategy alone.

madeofpalk 8y ago

> Of course there are other factors addressed in the letter, but this issue was notable enough to be included.

abalone 8y ago
Despite noting that the comment still implies that battery replacements were the dominant factor why “Apple misses their earnings target.” This is an invalid logical leap in its step by step reasoning.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- tomnipotent 8y ago
  > implies that battery replacements were the dominant factor why No it doesn't, only that it was "notable enough".
  - abalone 8y ago
    Clearly that is not "only" what it says. It jumps directly from "stick with their phone a bit longer... reducing iPhone sales" to "Apple misses their earnings target, likely costing them more in value than it would have cost them to address the root issue." That is very clearly drawing a casual relationship between the two things, and underscores it by stating it "should be a lesson for more companies" on how to avoid such outcomes. The last line is a dodge because, obviously, China's economy is actually the main culprit stated in the report. But I guess some people are going to hear what they want to hear.
    - alien_ 8y ago
      The recent devices are more overpriced than ever and getting over the limit of what ordinary people are willing to pay for a phone. I have an iPhone 6s and my wife had a 6 and needed a new phone. We bought a new Xr but it was a small fortune, even though we're both working in IT and having good income. The phone is a brick and I saw lots of slicker Android phones costing half the price and providing a very similar if not better experience. My next phone is very unlikely to be an iPhone.
      - mike10010100 8y ago
        What exactly does this have to do with the comment you're replying to?
    - tomnipotent 8y ago
      > But I guess some people are going to hear what they want to hear. Like what you're doing with these replies and your focus on something the OP didn't say?
      - abalone 8y ago
        I’ve entirely focused on what the OP said using extensive direct quotes. Your reply invalid.
- jwmoz 8y ago
  You're sounding like a robot. Get a grip.
  - abalone 8y ago
    First time I've been insulted for sounding too logical on a programmer forum.
  - tozeur 8y ago
    Please refrain from using ad hominem remarks on Hacker News.
simonh 8y ago
Yes of course, but the narrative the OP constructed where this is the only cause mentioned is clearly a misrepresentation.
criley2 8y ago
This is a causation/correlation failure IMO OP is attempting to place causation on the battery problem for the earnings miss or the valuation loss. That is not supported by the evidence, which clearly shows that the primary cause had nothing to do with the Western market at all. It's fair criticism, OP is discussing 5% of the problem and presenting it as if it's 100%.
- swish_bob 8y ago
  OP did not say "mishandling batterygate screwed Apple's earnings", but instead pointed out that something that could have been better handled and would have cost significantly less was considered a big enough mistake to be mentioned. OP not implying causation, they're calling something interesting out.
  - criley2 8y ago
    I fundamentally disagree with your analysis, as OP helpfully listed their entire thinking out: > "It went something like this:" > .... >- Some people decide that they'll stick with their phone a bit ?longer than they otherwise would have, reducing iPhone sales. >- Apple misses their earnings target, likely costing them more in value than it would have cost them to address the root issue in the first place. OP using a list format is implying a causative link between battery issues and earnings targets. OP even suggests that their value would be safe had they simply corrected the battery issue earlier. It's an extremely clear post they made, IMO
    - bchryfrrl 8y ago
      your opinion is extremely clearly based on your mental edits of the post
    - tomnipotent 8y ago
      > a causative link between battery issues and earnings targets There's is a causative link, which is why Apple included it in this report. How is it possible to miss that connection?

dominotw 8y ago

Was battery replacement not available in those areas?

ddebernardy 8y ago
My understanding is that the only thing that really matters in China is the availability of WeChat. What phone you've got matters little as a result. So Apple doesn't enjoy its usual iOS-stickiness factor.
- simonh 8y ago
  That's not quite right, although yes WeChat rules in China. Having the new shiny does matter - source, my wife is Chinese and I have a Chinese sister-in-law and niece both which got the X last year. They are absolutely typical Chinese consumers in this regard. As soon as iPhone because hard to distinguish from other phones they switched away. As soon as iPhones became clearly distinguishable again they switched back. This is not just an observation, they say this is why they did it. I think there are actually three factors hitting Apple in China this year. One is that a disproportionate number of purchasers got the X when it came out because it was so distinctive bringing forward purchases from this year, then there are a lot of Android phones now that look like the X models and the new X models don't look enough different from the original X to look new, finally the economy in China is pretty soft right now and people there are worried about the future.
  - pishpash 8y ago
    You missed the fourth, which is a trade war going on that is inducing a soft boycott of iPhones. Some of those users may be lost permanently to local alternatives.
- zelos 8y ago
  WhatsApp has pretty much eclipsed iMessage in many markets too.
helloindia 8y ago
Battery replacement scheme was available India. But, due to absence of Apple store, users have to go to Apple authorized service vendors where services take days. It took me 5 days to replace the battery in Dec 2018 because battery had to be specially ordered.(I live in major Indian city.) Cheap Android phones from Xiaomi etc are flooding the Indian market. If Apple doesn't ramp up the quality of experience in areas other than Hardware and OS, it's gonna lose whatever market share it has in India.

muse900 8y ago

yes it mentions the battery replacements and emerging markets as well. I think he forgets to mention lack of innovation. It was the first year that I wasn't surprised from the new iPhone at all and none of my friends did. At this point I don't see much difference in having an X model vs XS. You'll tell me that they had S models in the past and worked fine for them, sure... its not the same market anymore. There are very strong competitors using android which has also evolved and its doing really well as an OS vs what it was in the past at way cheaper prices. At the price tag those iPhones are coming at plus the lack of innovation, I only see a constant drop in sales. Personally I upgraded from an iPhone 7 to XS Max, my wife has an iPhone X and I don't see any difference between them, only the size. That plus the fact that I got my hands on some new android phones and got to use them made me think that I might change to android when my next upgrade is due. The apple ecosystem seems to be okish but I can't really say that it will keep me from changing. And truth be told there are quite a few solutions out there for them to become innovative again like the new ipad pro... have it use OS instead of iOS, that will definitely make people switch over to that and what comes with its ecosystem e.g pairing your mobile phone etc. Also airpods 2, just make some airpods with water resistance etc maybe improve connectivity a bit. Its not like we are requesting crazy innovation here, just simple solutions that will make us stick with the apple ecosystem. Disclaimer: I was an avid windows user and android phone user up till iphone 5s came out, I switched to 5s and the difference on iOS quality vs Android was massive. Due to work I also started working with a mac and so I joined the ecosystem and I can't say am very displeased apart from the price tag, but seeing how Android has progressed over the years and how stock Android can be even superior to iOS has made me thinking of changing back.

HNLogInShit 8y ago
What do you expect of this "innovation?" Phones are a mature market now. How much innovation is there in word processors? I'd like to think that Apple's regressions are finally costing it. Idiotic moves like the elimination of the headphone jack from devices that Apple wants us to consume Apple Music with SHOULD result in a market smackdown. As should astronomical prices for increasingly crippled products. Apple's physical design is now abysmal, with the removal of physical buttons from phones, the embarrassing emoji bar (and elimination of a dozen keys from an already pathetic keyboard) on the so-called MacBook "Pro"... not to mention that Apple computers are now glued-together schlock with soldered-in RAM and drives. Now, when your drive fails (and it WILL fail), you get to throw the whole $4000 computer away because Apple made it disposable junk. Macs should be sold in blister packs hanging from pegs at Walgreens. The real "innovation" here would be for Apple to admit its blunders, fire Jony Ive, and bring usefulness back with a vengeance. Their fear of it is just as irrational as Trump supporters.

mike10010100 8y ago

It's also important to note that China is generally experiencing a harsh economic slowdown. https://theweek.com/speedreads/815565/data-reportedly-signals-chinas-economic-slowdown-might-worse-than-beijing-suggests https://theweek.com/speedreads/815565/data-reportedly-signal... It would seem that this issue is far broader than simply Apple's strategy alone.