5 ms·

> At $50B Market Cap, Tesla should be delivering at least $2B Annual profits. LOL what? Show me another company with $50B market cap growing at 50% a year on

by btian 8y ago

> At $50B Market Cap, Tesla should be delivering at least $2B Annual profits. LOL what? Show me another company with $50B market cap growing at 50% a year on the top line to deliver $2B in profits. I'll wait.

qroshan 8y ago
Huh? Did you compare Q3 and Q4 numbers, the growth has pretty much reached steady state. 90,000 per quarter is what Tesla will be and probably 500 Million annual profit. 50% profit growth is delusional at this stage
- jacobkranz 8y ago
  I think OP's point is that Tesla isn't just a car company but they're also an energy storage & solar producer. While the car biz may have be leveling off (and that's not accounting for the semi & modely Y launching this year and next respectively), their energy storage is starting to take off along with the solar roofs so this provides huge growth opportunities in the future.
- 300bps 8y ago
  Q32018: 55,800 Model 3s delivered. Q42018: 63,100 Model 3s delivered. That's a 13% growth rate in a single quarter which is more than 50% growth rate annualized.
  - gamblor956 8y ago
    If Tesla was expecting 50% annualized growth, or even growth comparable to their recent historical trends, they would not have cut the price tag on every model of car they sell.
    - mulmen 8y ago
      That... isn’t how economies of scale or elasticity of demand work.
      - gamblor956 8y ago
        I think you might need to brush up on your understanding of demand elasticity curves. Tesla is dropping the sticker price of their vehicles because they think that demand for their cars is at least somewhat elastic with respect to sticker price, and they're in a better position than you or me to have the data and analysis on this. (Tesla has also announced that this is why they're dropping the price so I'm not sure why you're arguing this point?) Economies of scale are not related to this drop in price. Economies of scale refers to it being cheaper to product an product at scale due to efficiencies in the use of the largely fixed-cost capital expenditures. Companies don't usually drop prices due to EOS until at least a quarter or two after they've reached that point in the production cost cycle, largely to confirm that they've actually reached EOS operationally, and some company's retain the efficiencies from EOS as profit until/unless they need to for competitive market reasons.
        mulmen 8y ago
        Or: they’re dropping the sticker price to keep the overall cost of the vehicle stable or lower to meet demand. Economies of scale allow them to do this.
        gamblor956 8y ago
        Or: since the car is actually more expensive out-of-pocket even after the price "drop", they're simply doing this to reduce the sticker price they quote on all of their marketing materials.
    - jsight 8y ago
      I don't follow your logic here. With the reduced tax incentive, Teslas have seen an effective increase of ~$1,750 USD. Would you normally argue that a yearly price increase of ~3% on a car portends anything in particular about demand? I guess it implies that they expected demand to fall if the increase had been ~6% instead, but that doesn't seem like anything that would preclude 50% worldwide growth.
  - microtherion 8y ago
    Yes, but during Q3, weekly production ramped up from ~2000 to ~4200. During Q4, weekly production stayed pretty much flat. https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iqPFhpeWEISc/v1/-1x-1.png https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iqPFhpeWEIS... Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
    - zaroth 8y ago
      It’s almost like the company should consider manufacturing and selling Teslas in a country other than the USA...
dang 8y ago
Please don't post in the flamewar style to Hacker News. It degrades discussion, regardless of how right you are. Your comment would be fine with just the middle sentence. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

by btian 8y ago

qroshan 8y ago

Huh? Did you compare Q3 and Q4 numbers, the growth has pretty much reached steady state. 90,000 per quarter is what Tesla will be and probably 500 Million annual profit. 50% profit growth is delusional at this stage

jacobkranz 8y ago
I think OP's point is that Tesla isn't just a car company but they're also an energy storage & solar producer. While the car biz may have be leveling off (and that's not accounting for the semi & modely Y launching this year and next respectively), their energy storage is starting to take off along with the solar roofs so this provides huge growth opportunities in the future.
300bps 8y ago
Q32018: 55,800 Model 3s delivered. Q42018: 63,100 Model 3s delivered. That's a 13% growth rate in a single quarter which is more than 50% growth rate annualized.
- gamblor956 8y ago
  If Tesla was expecting 50% annualized growth, or even growth comparable to their recent historical trends, they would not have cut the price tag on every model of car they sell.
  - mulmen 8y ago
    That... isn’t how economies of scale or elasticity of demand work.
    - gamblor956 8y ago
      I think you might need to brush up on your understanding of demand elasticity curves. Tesla is dropping the sticker price of their vehicles because they think that demand for their cars is at least somewhat elastic with respect to sticker price, and they're in a better position than you or me to have the data and analysis on this. (Tesla has also announced that this is why they're dropping the price so I'm not sure why you're arguing this point?) Economies of scale are not related to this drop in price. Economies of scale refers to it being cheaper to product an product at scale due to efficiencies in the use of the largely fixed-cost capital expenditures. Companies don't usually drop prices due to EOS until at least a quarter or two after they've reached that point in the production cost cycle, largely to confirm that they've actually reached EOS operationally, and some company's retain the efficiencies from EOS as profit until/unless they need to for competitive market reasons.
      - mulmen 8y ago
        Or: they’re dropping the sticker price to keep the overall cost of the vehicle stable or lower to meet demand. Economies of scale allow them to do this.
        gamblor956 8y ago
        Or: since the car is actually more expensive out-of-pocket even after the price "drop", they're simply doing this to reduce the sticker price they quote on all of their marketing materials.
  - jsight 8y ago
    I don't follow your logic here. With the reduced tax incentive, Teslas have seen an effective increase of ~$1,750 USD. Would you normally argue that a yearly price increase of ~3% on a car portends anything in particular about demand? I guess it implies that they expected demand to fall if the increase had been ~6% instead, but that doesn't seem like anything that would preclude 50% worldwide growth.
- microtherion 8y ago
  Yes, but during Q3, weekly production ramped up from ~2000 to ~4200. During Q4, weekly production stayed pretty much flat. https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iqPFhpeWEISc/v1/-1x-1.png https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iqPFhpeWEIS... Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
  - zaroth 8y ago
    It’s almost like the company should consider manufacturing and selling Teslas in a country other than the USA...

dang 8y ago

Please don't post in the flamewar style to Hacker News. It degrades discussion, regardless of how right you are. Your comment would be fine with just the middle sentence. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html