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Specifically, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3352/Will-Donald-Trump-be-president-at-year-end-2019 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3352/Will-D

• aidenn0 8y ago
  What's the overhead of trading on predictit because the impeachment[1] "yes" of 37% is way too close to the currently 30% "no" of him being in office; I think the odds of him ending the year as president if impeached is at least 50%, so there should be some way to arbitrage this. [edit] I suppose there is the chance of him pulling a Nixon and resigning before impeachment, as well as the chance of him dying. I consider both of those to be less likely; he is to confrontational to back down from just the threat of impeachment of a house with an opposition majority; if anything being impeached by a partisan vote would be fodder for his conservative base. 1: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4319/Will-Donald-Trump-be-impeached-by-year-end-2019 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4319/Will-Donald-Tr...
  • iak8god 8y ago
    10% on gains, plus 5% on withdrawals: https://predictit.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/articles/5000516383-what-are-your-fees- https://predictit.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/articles/5... The volume may be too low to do much arbitrage.
• gadders 8y ago
  Well, at least most people on there agree with me.