4 ms·

I came here to say exactly the same thing. I'd be happy to stick money down on Trump still being in power by the end of 2019. And probably by the end of 2024 as

I came here to say exactly the same thing. I'd be happy to stick money down on Trump still being in power by the end of 2019. And probably by the end of 2024 as well. I think it's an example of a Silicon Valley filter bubble.

devy 8y ago
Technically, Fred Wilson is based in New York though.
lesss365 8y ago
Here's your chance https://www.predictit.org https://www.predictit.org
- iak8god 8y ago
  Specifically, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3352/Will-Donald-Trump-be-president-at-year-end-2019 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3352/Will-Donald-Tr... Currently about 73% yes
  - aidenn0 8y ago
    What's the overhead of trading on predictit because the impeachment[1] "yes" of 37% is way too close to the currently 30% "no" of him being in office; I think the odds of him ending the year as president if impeached is at least 50%, so there should be some way to arbitrage this. [edit] I suppose there is the chance of him pulling a Nixon and resigning before impeachment, as well as the chance of him dying. I consider both of those to be less likely; he is to confrontational to back down from just the threat of impeachment of a house with an opposition majority; if anything being impeached by a partisan vote would be fodder for his conservative base. 1: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4319/Will-Donald-Trump-be-impeached-by-year-end-2019 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4319/Will-Donald-Tr...
    - iak8god 8y ago
      10% on gains, plus 5% on withdrawals: https://predictit.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/articles/5000516383-what-are-your-fees- https://predictit.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/articles/5... The volume may be too low to do much arbitrage.
  - gadders 8y ago
    Well, at least most people on there agree with me.
- llao 8y ago
  Wow, I haven't heard about that site before. Was ready to bash it for being yet another get-rich-quick Cryptocoin scam but it is actual real money (I believe?) and an academic project: > PredictIt is a research project of Victoria University of Wellington. In order to take full advantage of the research opportunities presented by prediction markets like PredictIt, we make our data available to members of the academic community at no cost. PredictIt’s market data offers researchers a wealth of information that can be used to further our understanding of a wide array of subjects in fields of study as diverse as microeconomics, political behavior, computer science and game theory. PredictIt is excited to support the work of our researcher partners as they push the boundaries of human knowledge.

devy 8y ago

Technically, Fred Wilson is based in New York though.

lesss365 8y ago

Here's your chance https://www.predictit.org https://www.predictit.org

iak8god 8y ago
Specifically, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3352/Will-Donald-Trump-be-president-at-year-end-2019 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3352/Will-Donald-Tr... Currently about 73% yes
- aidenn0 8y ago
  What's the overhead of trading on predictit because the impeachment[1] "yes" of 37% is way too close to the currently 30% "no" of him being in office; I think the odds of him ending the year as president if impeached is at least 50%, so there should be some way to arbitrage this. [edit] I suppose there is the chance of him pulling a Nixon and resigning before impeachment, as well as the chance of him dying. I consider both of those to be less likely; he is to confrontational to back down from just the threat of impeachment of a house with an opposition majority; if anything being impeached by a partisan vote would be fodder for his conservative base. 1: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4319/Will-Donald-Trump-be-impeached-by-year-end-2019 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4319/Will-Donald-Tr...
  - iak8god 8y ago
    10% on gains, plus 5% on withdrawals: https://predictit.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/articles/5000516383-what-are-your-fees- https://predictit.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/articles/5... The volume may be too low to do much arbitrage.
- gadders 8y ago
  Well, at least most people on there agree with me.
llao 8y ago
Wow, I haven't heard about that site before. Was ready to bash it for being yet another get-rich-quick Cryptocoin scam but it is actual real money (I believe?) and an academic project: > PredictIt is a research project of Victoria University of Wellington. In order to take full advantage of the research opportunities presented by prediction markets like PredictIt, we make our data available to members of the academic community at no cost. PredictIt’s market data offers researchers a wealth of information that can be used to further our understanding of a wide array of subjects in fields of study as diverse as microeconomics, political behavior, computer science and game theory. PredictIt is excited to support the work of our researcher partners as they push the boundaries of human knowledge.