3 ms·

I think you're overstating the 'definitely' column here by an enormous amount. Most of the things you included just have not happened. Here are two examples: 1

by grkvlt 8y ago

I think you're overstating the 'definitely' column here by an enormous amount. Most of the things you included just have not happened. Here are two examples: 1. Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable. No. Household robots exist and are in an early stage of adoption and development, but are not very capable (single tasks) or reliable, and have yet to reach widespread adoption outside of wealthy, early adopters and enthusiasts. 2. Computers do most of the vehicle driving. No. Some cars have driver assistance technologies, but mainly expensive luxury models. Most vehicles are driven by humans with zero computer assistance. I think you are confusing the existance of a thing with the universal availability and adoption of that thing. Where Kurzweil says most he means it. Even back in 1999 there were examples of these things in research labs and so on, the prediction he was making was that they would have moved forward from there to becoming everyday household items, present in the council estates, trailer parks and so on of the world, as well as the San Francisco area...

armitron 8y ago
1. Roomba. 2. Computers in an average modern car control steering, braking and acceleration to degrees not possible in the past. It's clear that Kurzweil is more right than wrong if you read his predictions as trends and account for some degree of variation. Since he's talking about processes I am not sure what reading his predictions with a letter-of-the-law critical mindset buys you. The vast majority of what he talks about - has been invented - and is well on the way to becoming widespread. For me, it's the point of origin ("invention") of a technology and it's near-term projection that's most salient and Kurzweil nails it down.
- grkvlt 8y ago
  No, he's not. Autonomous vehicles and household robots existed when he made these predictions. The predictions are about the ubiquity and widespread, mass market adoption of these things - which has not happened. Yes, the robots and driver assistance systems are better, sometimes hugely improved, and more widespread than 20 years ago, but the operative word in the predictions is MOST and that is where they fall down, and fail to be true.

by grkvlt 8y ago

armitron 8y ago

1. Roomba. 2. Computers in an average modern car control steering, braking and acceleration to degrees not possible in the past. It's clear that Kurzweil is more right than wrong if you read his predictions as trends and account for some degree of variation. Since he's talking about processes I am not sure what reading his predictions with a letter-of-the-law critical mindset buys you. The vast majority of what he talks about - has been invented - and is well on the way to becoming widespread. For me, it's the point of origin ("invention") of a technology and it's near-term projection that's most salient and Kurzweil nails it down.

grkvlt 8y ago
No, he's not. Autonomous vehicles and household robots existed when he made these predictions. The predictions are about the ubiquity and widespread, mass market adoption of these things - which has not happened. Yes, the robots and driver assistance systems are better, sometimes hugely improved, and more widespread than 20 years ago, but the operative word in the predictions is MOST and that is where they fall down, and fail to be true.