> Nature prefers sigmoids over exponentials anyway, so it’s basically always unrealistic to predict things getting exponentially different unless you have reall

> Nature prefers sigmoids over exponentials anyway, so it’s basically always unrealistic to predict things getting exponentially different unless you have really good priors to let you predict when that sigmoid necks over. I'm pretty sure that Kurzweil is aware of this, given that he sees ICs already as the fifth paradigm in computation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near#/media/File:PPTMooresLawai.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near#/media... The problem (it seems to me) is that there basically was no further paradigm shift after ICs so far, which would have been necessary for many of Kurzweil's predictions to come true this year.