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VCs are going to talk up things that they’ve invested in, but his emphasis on crypto as meaningful in any way beyond a temporary buzzword and a sink for suckers

VCs are going to talk up things that they’ve invested in, but his emphasis on crypto as meaningful in any way beyond a temporary buzzword and a sink for suckers’ money is pretty indicative of the amount of trust one should put in his predictions. Skimming his recent articles, including the look back at 2018, it’s clear he sees crypto as a hedge against political and economic instability, but the irony is that crypto’s primary use case is in _facilitating_ the destabilization of existing economic infrastructure. That’s its explicit goal! So it’s weird that someone so heavily invested in it thinks it’ll be a savior of society. But then again the author operates in a different economy than the rest of us... he’ll probably be just fine.

ianai 8y ago
One of my Econ classes posed a question “why would basing a currency on gold be bad” (some hint like that). Essentially, any currency with a finite supply and that can never increase will restrain economic growth.
- kuhhk 8y ago
  Yup. The word you’re trying to remember is a ‘deflationary’ currency. It encourages hoarding of the currency, rather than spending it.
  - ianai 8y ago
    I prefer to describe the mechanism than use a singular term in aide of explanation. You’re totally correct.
- ethbro 8y ago
  In the case of gold, there's also exploration, colonization, and foreign resource exploitation. There's probably an argument that one of the main drivers of European colonization was pursuit of a de facto increase in currency supply.
seibelj 8y ago
There are many kooky economic experiments in crypto right now that are not only 1) Not failing miserably, but 2) Are growing steadily. Decentralized financial products like MakerDAO and Compound Finance are very interesting. Augur is a prediction marketplace that was pilloried for having some 30 users per day when it launched, but now has around $2 million in open interest. It is very early days, and it is quite complicated to build new products and businesses given that the tooling is poor, the crypto networks are slow, and many mainstream technologists take endless pleasure in shitting on crypto and cheering when prices fall, but progress continues. I think cryptocurrencies and smart contracts have earned a seat at the table for disruptive technologies of the 21st century, along with cloud computing, AI / ML / big data, and smart phones.
- mikedouglas 8y ago
  Augur hasn't really seen any uptick in usage: https://dappradar.com/app/673/augur https://dappradar.com/app/673/augur
KasianFranks 8y ago
Outside of VC's there's an entire group of software engineers in the financial markets, in particular decent quants that double as ML/NLP specialists, who also understand the value of globally accessible trading vehicles. Time to put the crypto pitchforks away.
ThomPete 8y ago
While I agree there is a lot of BS in the crypto world I think we are dealing with a classic case of overestimating in the short run and underestimating in the long run. Instead of starting with decentralization in your thinking and then trying to find value through that, start instead with de-institutionalization. The potential of crypto is not the individual currency but the network of currencies. Our parents/grandparents invented the internet but didn't find ways to turn it into what it is today. Our generation invented the blockchain but it will be our kids who will end up turning it into valuable infrastructure. They will not be limited to understanding and applying it like we do but be able to think about it from a "born blockchain" perspective. We keep trying to think how we can use it for things we already have solutions for which is of course not really going to do much. Instead we have to think about things that we don't have solutions for and which can't be done easily. CryptoKitties is one of the best examples of how this can be used and if you think that is silly then you are right so are many other ideas that end up turning into amazing businesses. So I say, let a million cryptocurrencies bloom it's the network itself that's the utility not the individual currency.
- hannasanarion 8y ago
  >Our parents/grandparents invented the internet but didn't find ways to turn it into what it is today. Repeating this over and over again doesn't make it true. Google, Amazon, and Ebay we're established in the first year of the eternal September, and immediately started changing people's lives. We're 10 years after Bitcoin, and still with nothing to show for it but money laundering and pump and dump schemes.
  - ThomPete 8y ago
    It doesn't make it false either. The blockchain is a protocol, not a company. The TCP/IP protocol was decades old before it became useful to build companies on top of exactly because it required A LOT of networked connectivity, people to make various investments and critical mass from users. Give it time.
    - hannasanarion 8y ago

ianai 8y ago

One of my Econ classes posed a question “why would basing a currency on gold be bad” (some hint like that). Essentially, any currency with a finite supply and that can never increase will restrain economic growth.

kuhhk 8y ago
Yup. The word you’re trying to remember is a ‘deflationary’ currency. It encourages hoarding of the currency, rather than spending it.
- ianai 8y ago
  I prefer to describe the mechanism than use a singular term in aide of explanation. You’re totally correct.
ethbro 8y ago
In the case of gold, there's also exploration, colonization, and foreign resource exploitation. There's probably an argument that one of the main drivers of European colonization was pursuit of a de facto increase in currency supply.

seibelj 8y ago

There are many kooky economic experiments in crypto right now that are not only 1) Not failing miserably, but 2) Are growing steadily. Decentralized financial products like MakerDAO and Compound Finance are very interesting. Augur is a prediction marketplace that was pilloried for having some 30 users per day when it launched, but now has around $2 million in open interest. It is very early days, and it is quite complicated to build new products and businesses given that the tooling is poor, the crypto networks are slow, and many mainstream technologists take endless pleasure in shitting on crypto and cheering when prices fall, but progress continues. I think cryptocurrencies and smart contracts have earned a seat at the table for disruptive technologies of the 21st century, along with cloud computing, AI / ML / big data, and smart phones.

mikedouglas 8y ago
Augur hasn't really seen any uptick in usage: https://dappradar.com/app/673/augur https://dappradar.com/app/673/augur

KasianFranks 8y ago

Outside of VC's there's an entire group of software engineers in the financial markets, in particular decent quants that double as ML/NLP specialists, who also understand the value of globally accessible trading vehicles. Time to put the crypto pitchforks away.

ThomPete 8y ago

While I agree there is a lot of BS in the crypto world I think we are dealing with a classic case of overestimating in the short run and underestimating in the long run. Instead of starting with decentralization in your thinking and then trying to find value through that, start instead with de-institutionalization. The potential of crypto is not the individual currency but the network of currencies. Our parents/grandparents invented the internet but didn't find ways to turn it into what it is today. Our generation invented the blockchain but it will be our kids who will end up turning it into valuable infrastructure. They will not be limited to understanding and applying it like we do but be able to think about it from a "born blockchain" perspective. We keep trying to think how we can use it for things we already have solutions for which is of course not really going to do much. Instead we have to think about things that we don't have solutions for and which can't be done easily. CryptoKitties is one of the best examples of how this can be used and if you think that is silly then you are right so are many other ideas that end up turning into amazing businesses. So I say, let a million cryptocurrencies bloom it's the network itself that's the utility not the individual currency.

hannasanarion 8y ago
>Our parents/grandparents invented the internet but didn't find ways to turn it into what it is today. Repeating this over and over again doesn't make it true. Google, Amazon, and Ebay we're established in the first year of the eternal September, and immediately started changing people's lives. We're 10 years after Bitcoin, and still with nothing to show for it but money laundering and pump and dump schemes.
- ThomPete 8y ago
  It doesn't make it false either. The blockchain is a protocol, not a company. The TCP/IP protocol was decades old before it became useful to build companies on top of exactly because it required A LOT of networked connectivity, people to make various investments and critical mass from users. Give it time.
  - hannasanarion 8y ago