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>China’s GDP has been slowing in recent years as it achieved relative parity with the US and the Eurozone: This is misleading; the relevant metric for measurin

>China’s GDP has been slowing in recent years as it achieved relative parity with the US and the Eurozone: This is misleading; the relevant metric for measuring development is GDP per capita, which is only around $8,500 in China, compared to $59,000 for the US and and $33,000 for the EU (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...). The average person in China is much poorer than the average person in America or Europe; a significant portion are still subsistence farmers, the only reason absolute GDP is comparable with the US and Europe is that China's population is way bigger. One would only expect growth to slow when China's per-person GDP approaches that of a developed country, not it's total GDP.

ed_balls 8y ago
PPP per capita is a better metric, but far from ideal.
xiaq 8y ago
It depends on how much growth has been driven by international demand and how much by domestic demand. China has been heavily export-oriented in the past few decades.
oconnor663 8y ago
It's misleading if you're discussing individual standards of living, but it could be relevant if you're discussing trade wars or military power.
ttflee 8y ago
China's growth in the past 30 years largely depended on foreign direct investment and export. With current dispute on trade escalating to an all out trade war, the prospect in 2019 would be even more dimmer. If China invades Taiwan and further disrupts global supply chain, a such slower global growth could be expected.
beat 8y ago
"THE relevant statistic" (emphasis mine) is also misleading. Lots of different things measure development. It's not surprising that China is seeing some slowdown in growth, as they climb that curve. Jumping from $50 to $100 is easier than jumping from $5000 to $10,000. Or another way, a 10% growth rate at $1000 requires increasing revenue by $100. At $10,000, it means increasing by $1000. On top of that, China is an export-driven economy, and it's tangling with slowdowns among its customers (who aren't growing nearly as fast anyway), and a trade war with the US. edit: Rather than just measuring China vs "developed world", measure China vs China. The per capita GDP of China has increased a hundredfold in the past 50 years. To sustain that rate for another 50 years, per capita GDP would have to reach over $800,000 (in constant dollars). That seems... unlikely.
- srcmap 8y ago
  Agree with your comments. Adding few other points: * China's new infrastructures are good and modern. (+) * Education system is reasonable - produce large number of engineers, college educated young people. (+) * Entrepreneurial spirits/activities are very high in a lot of cities. (+) * The new roads system are mostly build/own with private money and adding non-trivial cost to the normal business when they need to transport goods. As compare to the highway system in the US. (-) * The society is NOT govern by the rule of law. It is govern by the will of the Party and who ever is in power. As shown recently by the some famous actors, actress go fine massive amount because of tax issues. The new rules show up one day can cause the majority movie industry disappear in a few weeks. (-) * The housing bubble is a big issue similar to what happen to Japan 20+ years ago. (-) * The debt in private industries and local government are BIG issue. (-) * The central government has recently created new much stricter rules about people (local/business ) taking the money out of China. It looks good on the surface for majority of population when present as rich people's issue. But imagine a bank allow for deposit but only allow for redraw of $100 per day. With that kind of policy, no business would trust a country enough to do new or continue investments. * The old reformer (DengXiaoPeng)'s believe: It doesn't matter if it is a black cat or a white cat, if it can catch a mouse, it is a good cat. * The new believe: Those black/write cats who turn into fat cats have served their purposes. It is harvest time..... * Overall, it don't look good for China in near/long term.
product50 8y ago
Why are you expecting China to grow till it achieves per person GDP parity? What is the logic for that? Do you realize that if China ppp rises that the very factors that makes China such a growing force such as cheaper manufacturing will erode away?
- logicchains 8y ago
  Why wouldn't it? Other majority Chinese countries have, e.g. Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, as have Korea and Japan.

ed_balls 8y ago

PPP per capita is a better metric, but far from ideal.

xiaq 8y ago

It depends on how much growth has been driven by international demand and how much by domestic demand. China has been heavily export-oriented in the past few decades.

oconnor663 8y ago

It's misleading if you're discussing individual standards of living, but it could be relevant if you're discussing trade wars or military power.

ttflee 8y ago

China's growth in the past 30 years largely depended on foreign direct investment and export. With current dispute on trade escalating to an all out trade war, the prospect in 2019 would be even more dimmer. If China invades Taiwan and further disrupts global supply chain, a such slower global growth could be expected.

beat 8y ago

"THE relevant statistic" (emphasis mine) is also misleading. Lots of different things measure development. It's not surprising that China is seeing some slowdown in growth, as they climb that curve. Jumping from $50 to $100 is easier than jumping from $5000 to $10,000. Or another way, a 10% growth rate at $1000 requires increasing revenue by $100. At $10,000, it means increasing by $1000. On top of that, China is an export-driven economy, and it's tangling with slowdowns among its customers (who aren't growing nearly as fast anyway), and a trade war with the US. edit: Rather than just measuring China vs "developed world", measure China vs China. The per capita GDP of China has increased a hundredfold in the past 50 years. To sustain that rate for another 50 years, per capita GDP would have to reach over $800,000 (in constant dollars). That seems... unlikely.

srcmap 8y ago
Agree with your comments. Adding few other points: * China's new infrastructures are good and modern. (+) * Education system is reasonable - produce large number of engineers, college educated young people. (+) * Entrepreneurial spirits/activities are very high in a lot of cities. (+) * The new roads system are mostly build/own with private money and adding non-trivial cost to the normal business when they need to transport goods. As compare to the highway system in the US. (-) * The society is NOT govern by the rule of law. It is govern by the will of the Party and who ever is in power. As shown recently by the some famous actors, actress go fine massive amount because of tax issues. The new rules show up one day can cause the majority movie industry disappear in a few weeks. (-) * The housing bubble is a big issue similar to what happen to Japan 20+ years ago. (-) * The debt in private industries and local government are BIG issue. (-) * The central government has recently created new much stricter rules about people (local/business ) taking the money out of China. It looks good on the surface for majority of population when present as rich people's issue. But imagine a bank allow for deposit but only allow for redraw of $100 per day. With that kind of policy, no business would trust a country enough to do new or continue investments. * The old reformer (DengXiaoPeng)'s believe: It doesn't matter if it is a black cat or a white cat, if it can catch a mouse, it is a good cat. * The new believe: Those black/write cats who turn into fat cats have served their purposes. It is harvest time..... * Overall, it don't look good for China in near/long term.

product50 8y ago

Why are you expecting China to grow till it achieves per person GDP parity? What is the logic for that? Do you realize that if China ppp rises that the very factors that makes China such a growing force such as cheaper manufacturing will erode away?

logicchains 8y ago
Why wouldn't it? Other majority Chinese countries have, e.g. Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, as have Korea and Japan.