12 ms·

What I learned at work this year

265 points by johndbeatty 8y ago

kosei 8y ago
"[Warren Buffett] says his measure of success is, “Do the people you care about love you back?” I think that is about as good a metric as you will find." I love this.
- seizethecheese 8y ago
  It's one of the few things you can't buy. Good goal for an ambitious billionaire.
- Jedi72 8y ago
  The problem is that Warren Buffet doesn't care, as in love which is what he's implying, about 99.99% of the population. If he gives a large portion of the population diabetes (BerkshireHathaway own CocaCola stock) and uses the profits to buy his family aeroplanes, by this definition he is a success.
  - throw0u1t 8y ago
    This is complete nonsense.
- code_duck 8y ago
  So then why does he bother being an investor? He could probably find that level of success working at Walmart and concentrating on his home life. Given that he’s successful at investing, he must have some other standards.
  - bdhess 8y ago
    Maybe a good number of the people he cares about work at or invest in the company he built?
- Double_a_92 8y ago
  That doesn't help much if you and your loved ones are just barely not-starving. :/
- gravity_123 8y ago
  This reminds me of the song 'what Sarah said' by death cab for cutie. "That love is watching someone die So who's gonna watch you die"
ssivark 8y ago
> [...] we are also going to be focusing more on improving the quality of life. I think this will be the thrust of many big breakthroughs of the future. For example, software will be able to notice when you’re feeling down, connect you with your friends, give you personalized tips for sleeping and eating better, and help you use your time more efficiently. Seems like a retrofitted use case that is more of an answer to the question "What could technology do next?" rather than the question "How to improve quality of life?" If one started with the latter question---which is what is worth answering---a significant component of the answer would be to strengthen relationships and make them more authentic. Since the medium undeniably biases the message, it is important to prevent the disintermediation of relationships by corporations looking to insert themselves (or their technology) into positions from where they can better extract rent. Technology can of course be useful in numerous ways, but the right solutions would put human emotions and relationships front and center, and sparingly sprinkle technical solutions only when needed -- and in many ways force people to interact more directly, even if it were temporarily (somewhat) inconvenient.
- apatters 8y ago
  Has Bill ever been good at predictions? No mention of smartphones or social media in The Road Ahead. Blindsided by how quickly the Internet developed, underestimated "bazaar" economies that enabled millions of people building both software and content. All the smart home stuff he was in love with has gone hardly anywhere. I think he's very smart and great at setting huge goals then hitting them, but I'm not sure he's a great prognosticator.
  - max76 8y ago
    His most famous prediction was one he helped make true. Microsoft's original mission statement was "A computer on every desk and in every home"
    - Steve44 8y ago
      The ending seems to have been missed off most quotes, it appears to have been "A computer on every desk and in every home running Microsoft software".
thatfrenchguy 8y ago
> software will be able to notice when you’re feeling down Facebook-controlled depression, what a dream
- heavyset_go 8y ago
  Depressed people are likely to shop to alleviate their depression symptoms temporarily, too.
- charlesism 8y ago
  It's an article about the future, so we don't need to bring up Facebook.
- r3bl 8y ago
  I keep spamming this link, but it's important to be repeated: Facebook already intentionally manipulated emotions of a "small number of users" (700k), proved it was possible, and released a paper on it almost half a decade ago. https://slate.com/technology/2014/06/facebook-unethical-experiment-it-made-news-feeds-happier-or-sadder-to-manipulate-peoples-emotions.html https://slate.com/technology/2014/06/facebook-unethical-expe...
  - trishmapow2 8y ago
    Link to paper: https://www.pnas.org/content/111/24/8788 https://www.pnas.org/content/111/24/8788. (It does say 'massive-scale' though)
usaphp 8y ago
> Unfortunately, America is no longer the global leader on nuclear energy that it was 50 years ago. To regain this position, it will need to commit new funding, update regulations, and show investors that it’s serious. > We had hoped to build a pilot project in China, but recent policy changes here in the U.S. have made that unlikely. Maybe running pilot projects in U.S. instead of China can solve the first issue he mentions?
- sargun 8y ago
  I believe that a Chinese company had already inked a deal to provide cash and regulatory help.
- mattzito 8y ago
  Mere sentences later he says that they would like to do a pilot in the US but regulatory constraints make it impossible.
  - bluquark 8y ago
    The whole section is kind of strange. First he says that he believes only technology breakthroughs can solve the climate crisis, despite the expert consensus that the technology is mostly there if the political will can be found to disruptively deploy it. So, presumably, he thinks that mustering the political will is intractable. Then, a few paragraphs later, he admits that his preferred fix of nuclear energy is also blocked by... political constraints. Why he thinks he'll make more progress touting nuclear energy, which is wildly unpopular, instead of "green jobs", which polls well, he doesn't say.
    - credit_guy 8y ago
      This note was quite short, so Bill Gates didn't go into much details. The details are: * Bill believes in a new nuclear fission technology that addresses the concern of nuclear waste, traveling wave reactor [1]. * He financed a startup called TerraPower [2] to demonstrate and then to put in use this technology * Being aware of the strong anti-nuclear sentiment in the US and of the more friendly attitude in China, he signed an agreement with China National Nuclear Corporation to build a 600MW reactor in China * With the new US administration more hawkish approach towards China, some new restrictions on nuclear deals were announced by the Department of Energy in October [3] * Gates' TerraPower venture found itself in the crosshairs of these restrictions, so the deal with the CNNC became for all practical purposes void [4] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traveling_wave_reactor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traveling_wave_reactor [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TerraPower https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TerraPower [3] https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-measures-prevent-china-s-illegal-diversion-us-civil-nuclear-technology https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-measures-preve... [4] https://www.rt.com/business/447910-bill-gates-nuclear-china/ https://www.rt.com/business/447910-bill-gates-nuclear-china/
usaphp 8y ago
> If you’ve never been exposed to the flu, it’s possible to make a vaccine that teaches your immune system to look for those structures and attack them. But once you’ve had the flu, your body obsesses over the strain that got you sick. That makes it really hard to get your immune system to look for the common structures. Very interesting, I did not know that.
- vincentmarle 8y ago
  Ah, so the body is basically overfitting the training data.
  - nikbackm 8y ago
    Probably better than the other way around.
gamma-male 8y ago
Are there other great and insightful blogs from important personalities like this one? Maybe warren buffet's blog?
- peteretep 8y ago
  Warren Buffet writes very insightful letters to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway which you can find online
  - rococode 8y ago
    Here's a link: http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html
lostmsu 8y ago
IMHO, what he thought at 25 is more useful than what he thinks now.
- kieckerjan 8y ago
  Say that again when he has eradicated polio or malaria.
  - lostmsu 8y ago
    Many would like to eradicate polio or malaria. The methods are known. Problem is to get resources to do that. Those resources were created by the work of 25yo Bill Gates.
- leesec 8y ago
  This comment is so useless and belittling.
peteretep 8y ago
> The only problem where I don’t yet see a clear path forward yet is how to develop more efficient ways to recruit patients for clinical trials. Without a simple and reliable diagnostic for Alzheimer’s, it’s hard to find eligible people early enough in the disease’s progression who can participate in trials. There’s an interesting use case for Facebook’s Machine Learning algorithms
- yulaow 8y ago
  Oh please NO. Let's try to not insert facebook also in our supersensitive medical data, considering how shady they are even with non-sensitive data it's clear it won't end well at all.
  - peteretep 8y ago
    Medical data has strong governance around it
    - majewsky 8y ago
      Which is why Facebook should not be allowed to touch it with a ten-foot pole.
ensiferum 8y ago
"We still need a lot of innovation to solve problems like malaria or obesity ..." There's really no innovation needed for the latter. Just educate people and when that fails implement better controls, i.e. sugar taxes on sodas and food. Fundamentally the goal should be get rid of refined sugars in foods, especially high fructose corn syrup.
- lnsru 8y ago
  You have no idea about obesity...
  - maccard 8y ago
    I saw an article [0] posted on here, which made me reconsider my feelings on obesity. It's worth a read even if you don't agree with the conclusion (I still don't), it was very thought provoking 0 - https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/12/7/16587316/bariatric-surgery-weight-loss-lap-band https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/12/7/16587316/ba...
  - sjroot 8y ago
    Either bring more to the discussion or abstain from commenting. What exactly are you trying to say?
    - lnsru 8y ago
      It’s not about education or price. It’s a pure emotional thing. You can ban sugar and all fast food, but the people will find something to abuse. There is a need for some nation wide happiness improvement program.
      - sjroot 8y ago
        Perhaps it could be more than one factor? I agree that there will always be something to abuse.
- hguhghuff 8y ago
Aardwolf 8y ago
If this is Bill Gates blog, I do wonder the following: On first visit, it pops up a modal subscribe email dialog. On a second visit, a distracting large survey thing slid in from the bottom. Why would Bill Gates need spammy patterns that detract from reading the text on his personal blog?
- fabricexpert 8y ago
  He's still a brand that needs to be marketed
  - majewsky 8y ago
    This assertion is presented without any arguments to support it.
  - PavlovsCat 8y ago
    Put a super pretty looking button in the sidebar to subscribe to the newsletter, and on subsequent visits have a "take the survey" button show up. As a bonus, that doesn't get blocked by adblockers, and doesn't annoy those who aren't interested. I might be bored and see what the questions of a survey are, and maybe take it if they're interesting, but not if it's a pop-up.
  - Aardwolf 8y ago
    Wouldn't his brand look better without these spammy things? It's a person writing insightful stuff, not an entity shoving clickbait in your face.
- vishalsharma 8y ago
  you should consider using uBlock Origin , I am using it and not getting any messages
ratsimihah 8y ago
> Did I devote enough time to my family? Did I learn enough new things? Did I develop new friendships and deepen old ones? These would have been laughable to me when I was 25 I'm almost 30 and those are my priorities, maybe that's why I am not as "successful" as Bill Gates?
- ArcMex 8y ago
  I was thinking something similar. I'm 28 and 2018 was a difficult year because I had to end many, many friendships because it became harder and harder for me to relate to them on a level I desire for my personal growth but I digress. The fact that Gates mentions that he thinks about these things now as opposed to his 20s makes me wonder if I am making the right decisions here. Still, I have made great progress. Sober and cigarette free for over a year, in a committed relationship for the first time since 7 years ago and a stable income and some savings in there somewhere. So maybe there is benefit to be had from being old young.
  - kamaal 8y ago
    >>I had to end many, many friendships because it became harder and harder for me to relate to them >>I desire for my personal growth but I digress. >>The fact that Gates mentions that he thinks about these things now as opposed to his 20s makes me wonder if I am making the right decisions here. A few days back some one on HN mentioned that most people on earth, are not going to terrible failures or spectacular successes. Once you come to this realization. You will take your health, mental health, friendships, relationships and hobbies far more seriously. After a while all you want is a peaceful, normal life with happy relationships and healthy body. After a while you can earn enough. And you are going to be eating the same burgers, as a billionaire eats to fill stomach. The beef ain't exactly going to come from heaven for trading extra efforts for sure failure. >> Still, I have made great progress. That which is in locomotion must arrive at the half-way stage before it arrives at the goal. — as recounted by Aristotle, Physics VI:9, 239b10 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#Achilles_and_the_tortoise https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#Achilles_an... For a lot of things in life, there are indeed infinite sub tasks you need to complete. Most of us aren't going to make it. Bail out while you have time.
cyrilllllll 8y ago
In the same way that windows is not bug-free, nuclear plants are not safe, at all. And they will never be. Without considering accidents, for only 50 years of comfort, we have shamefully produced deadly waste, that future generations will have to keep confined at all costs for thousands and thousands and thousands of years. Unlike CO2, uranium pollutes in the very long term, destroying all bacteria in the environment. It is high time to get up-to-date with renewable sources of energy.
- arnoooooo 8y ago
  Also, climate change promises a lot of trouble, I'm not sure we want so many nuclear power plants lying around.
- lexpar 8y ago
  You say "without considering accidents", but I'd argue that accidents are usually negligible to begin with. Yes there were the "big" incidents early in the history of nuclear power, but besides being huge public relation disasters, these disasters are not so "big" compared to other energy production accidents (e.g. offshore drilling, mining, etc). Yes 100% solar/wind would be virtually accident free, but if you argue this point too hard you let the perfect become the enemy of the good. I always like to point out to people (it often surprises them) that the province of Ontario gets more than half of its energy from nuclear plants [1]. How often do you hear about horrible accidents in Ontario? Not so often - there hasn't been a major clean up required since the mid 90s. And these are facilities built in the 60s! Anecdotal, but this is the sort of "quiet evidence" of nuclear safety that is easy to ignore. [1] https://www.ontario.ca/document/2017-long-term-energy-plan-discussion-guide/ontarios-energy-mix-end-2015 https://www.ontario.ca/document/2017-long-term-energy-plan-d...
- cesnja 8y ago
  The very basic point you're using here might be incorrect [1]. The difference is that all the nuclear radioactive waste is concentrated while the things coming out of coal plants are significantly diluted and mixed with local air. Therefore I think nuclear is better than coal plants even in the short term. [1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-ash-is-more-radioactive-than-nuclear-waste/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-ash-is-more-...
rtx 8y ago
> Nuclear is ideal for dealing with climate change, because it is the only carbon-free, scalable energy source that’s available 24 hours a day. The problems with today’s reactors, such as the risk of accidents, can be solved through innovation. So refreshing to see someone with his reach pushing for nuclear.
- Retric 8y ago
  Though still missing the mark. Nuclear’s biggest issue is cost. If it was cheap enough companies would have built more and scaled them up and down to meet demand, instead France only got mostly Nuclear by exporting its excess and nobody else really got very close to full nuclear. The problem today is wind costs less. But, when you add a lot of wind during times of high wind your nuclear becomes useless. This ends up driving up the effective cost of nuclear even higher. Storage makes this worse as you would then just want ever more wind due to cost.
  - SCHiM 8y ago
    The cost is a political problem. It's easier for the opponents of nuclear to find support for stricter and stricter safety laws for new reactors. Driving up the cost, making them economically nonviable. Meanwhile the older and far more dangerous reactors are rotting away and cannot be replaced (or are replaced with fossil fuels). It's been pointed out again, again and again. Coal plants pump out more radioactive waste than is ever released by all the accidents to date, catching a plane will irradiate you more than living next to one, etc. etc.
    - Retric 8y ago
      If that where true China would happily jump on the nuclear bandwagon. Instead, they use minimal Nuclear because the basic cost of running a nuclear power plant reasonably safely can’t become really cheap. Nuclear in China is 40.6 GW vs 290GW or so total power production. They are adding 14 GW but these things take time so the ratio will stay about the same. Meanwhile they are ramping up wind and solar extremely quickly with a stated goal of 1,300 GW of peak solar capacity by 2050 which they are on pace to reach. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_China https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_China
davebryand 8y ago
"We still need a lot of innovation to solve problems like malaria or obesity, but we are also going to be focusing more on improving the quality of life." To solve obesity we need the opposite of innovation. Nature has delivered the perfect array of nutrition for the human animal to thrive. We have innovated ourself into obesity and the reversion to the simple truth of natural nutrition is the cure.
- kup0 8y ago
  A reversion that very few will undertake. Unless there is some kind of innovation that can affect that (social engineering? who knows) So in light of the harsh reality that obesity is essentially a given, what CAN be done?
  - davebryand 8y ago
    I don't see why anything should be done. Obesity is your body telling you that you are doing food consumption wrong. If the human that is wearing a large body in life doesn't find the awareness to recognize that they must change their behavior, I don't believe society should try to innovate them a thinner body. Their currently large body is a gift from nature intended to signal that a course correction is needed. This enlarged body (which will usually come back to shape and health through corrected nutrition) is a manifestation of a more fundamental internal issue (mental or emotional). Innovating thin bodies while not addressing the internal issues will only cause more problems for this human and society at large.
    - Wowfunhappy 8y ago
      > Obesity is your body telling you that you are doing food consumption wrong. On the contrary, obesity likely exists because evolution optimized for the ability to survive long famines, which isn't a big problem in most developed nations nowadays.
    - kup0 8y ago
      I've tried losing weight and eating healthier and I can always stick to doing it for a while, but always gradually start eating worse and worse again. So I am aware, and have tried, and yet it feels like there's something bigger always pulling me back to eating poorly. Is it addiction? Is it some biological process (the body wanting to retain its new equilibrium)? Is it the fact that my taste buds tend to prefer the flavors of unhealthy food a majority of the time? Clearly the problem is bigger than obese people being aware of their obesity and trying (and failing) to change it. There are other forces at play, and I think, difficult ones to overcome. Separately, why not still try to innovate or do something to reduce the burden obesity places on the healthcare system (regardless of how you feel about the individuals)?
ipython 8y ago
Gates' resolution to learn and think more about the intersection between privacy and innovation is absolutely spot on. I've been thinking about better ways that we can approach chronic illnesses through health tracking, but absolutely terrified of the implication of that data falling into the wrong hands - and not even for nefarious purposes. For example, I would not trust my health insurance company with information that may indicate I am predisposed to an illness or disease lest they brand me as a high risk, pre-existing condition patient, and deny or price me out of coverage forever. I'd rather do my own experimentation outside of the 'official' medical community than to risk my own data being used as a weapon against me. Somewhat unrelated, I feel that the next underexplored area of medical science is that of the gut & intestines. Having a toilet that could do continual personalized analyses of your urine and stool is going to revolutionize medicine. However, as much as I believe that this is an opportunity to change the world for the better, I would never purchase such a device under the current privacy and security climate. I hope we can start to resolve these issues in 2019 and beyond so we can unlock these sorts of innovations to help people on a daily basis with chronic conditions.
allentucker 8y ago
We’re asking the guy who thought the internet had no potential to predict the future?

265 points by johndbeatty 8y ago

"[Warren Buffett] says his measure of success is, “Do the people you care about love you back?” I think that is about as good a metric as you will find." I love this.

seizethecheese 8y ago
It's one of the few things you can't buy. Good goal for an ambitious billionaire.
Jedi72 8y ago
The problem is that Warren Buffet doesn't care, as in love which is what he's implying, about 99.99% of the population. If he gives a large portion of the population diabetes (BerkshireHathaway own CocaCola stock) and uses the profits to buy his family aeroplanes, by this definition he is a success.
- throw0u1t 8y ago
  This is complete nonsense.
code_duck 8y ago
So then why does he bother being an investor? He could probably find that level of success working at Walmart and concentrating on his home life. Given that he’s successful at investing, he must have some other standards.
- bdhess 8y ago
  Maybe a good number of the people he cares about work at or invest in the company he built?
Double_a_92 8y ago
That doesn't help much if you and your loved ones are just barely not-starving. :/
gravity_123 8y ago
This reminds me of the song 'what Sarah said' by death cab for cutie. "That love is watching someone die So who's gonna watch you die"

ssivark 8y ago

> [...] we are also going to be focusing more on improving the quality of life. I think this will be the thrust of many big breakthroughs of the future. For example, software will be able to notice when you’re feeling down, connect you with your friends, give you personalized tips for sleeping and eating better, and help you use your time more efficiently. Seems like a retrofitted use case that is more of an answer to the question "What could technology do next?" rather than the question "How to improve quality of life?" If one started with the latter question---which is what is worth answering---a significant component of the answer would be to strengthen relationships and make them more authentic. Since the medium undeniably biases the message, it is important to prevent the disintermediation of relationships by corporations looking to insert themselves (or their technology) into positions from where they can better extract rent. Technology can of course be useful in numerous ways, but the right solutions would put human emotions and relationships front and center, and sparingly sprinkle technical solutions only when needed -- and in many ways force people to interact more directly, even if it were temporarily (somewhat) inconvenient.

apatters 8y ago
Has Bill ever been good at predictions? No mention of smartphones or social media in The Road Ahead. Blindsided by how quickly the Internet developed, underestimated "bazaar" economies that enabled millions of people building both software and content. All the smart home stuff he was in love with has gone hardly anywhere. I think he's very smart and great at setting huge goals then hitting them, but I'm not sure he's a great prognosticator.
- max76 8y ago
  His most famous prediction was one he helped make true. Microsoft's original mission statement was "A computer on every desk and in every home"
  - Steve44 8y ago
    The ending seems to have been missed off most quotes, it appears to have been "A computer on every desk and in every home running Microsoft software".

thatfrenchguy 8y ago

> software will be able to notice when you’re feeling down Facebook-controlled depression, what a dream

heavyset_go 8y ago
Depressed people are likely to shop to alleviate their depression symptoms temporarily, too.
charlesism 8y ago
It's an article about the future, so we don't need to bring up Facebook.
r3bl 8y ago
I keep spamming this link, but it's important to be repeated: Facebook already intentionally manipulated emotions of a "small number of users" (700k), proved it was possible, and released a paper on it almost half a decade ago. https://slate.com/technology/2014/06/facebook-unethical-experiment-it-made-news-feeds-happier-or-sadder-to-manipulate-peoples-emotions.html https://slate.com/technology/2014/06/facebook-unethical-expe...
- trishmapow2 8y ago
  Link to paper: https://www.pnas.org/content/111/24/8788 https://www.pnas.org/content/111/24/8788. (It does say 'massive-scale' though)

usaphp 8y ago

> Unfortunately, America is no longer the global leader on nuclear energy that it was 50 years ago. To regain this position, it will need to commit new funding, update regulations, and show investors that it’s serious. > We had hoped to build a pilot project in China, but recent policy changes here in the U.S. have made that unlikely. Maybe running pilot projects in U.S. instead of China can solve the first issue he mentions?

sargun 8y ago
I believe that a Chinese company had already inked a deal to provide cash and regulatory help.
mattzito 8y ago
Mere sentences later he says that they would like to do a pilot in the US but regulatory constraints make it impossible.
- bluquark 8y ago
  The whole section is kind of strange. First he says that he believes only technology breakthroughs can solve the climate crisis, despite the expert consensus that the technology is mostly there if the political will can be found to disruptively deploy it. So, presumably, he thinks that mustering the political will is intractable. Then, a few paragraphs later, he admits that his preferred fix of nuclear energy is also blocked by... political constraints. Why he thinks he'll make more progress touting nuclear energy, which is wildly unpopular, instead of "green jobs", which polls well, he doesn't say.
  - credit_guy 8y ago
    This note was quite short, so Bill Gates didn't go into much details. The details are: * Bill believes in a new nuclear fission technology that addresses the concern of nuclear waste, traveling wave reactor [1]. * He financed a startup called TerraPower [2] to demonstrate and then to put in use this technology * Being aware of the strong anti-nuclear sentiment in the US and of the more friendly attitude in China, he signed an agreement with China National Nuclear Corporation to build a 600MW reactor in China * With the new US administration more hawkish approach towards China, some new restrictions on nuclear deals were announced by the Department of Energy in October [3] * Gates' TerraPower venture found itself in the crosshairs of these restrictions, so the deal with the CNNC became for all practical purposes void [4] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traveling_wave_reactor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traveling_wave_reactor [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TerraPower https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TerraPower [3] https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-measures-prevent-china-s-illegal-diversion-us-civil-nuclear-technology https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-measures-preve... [4] https://www.rt.com/business/447910-bill-gates-nuclear-china/ https://www.rt.com/business/447910-bill-gates-nuclear-china/

usaphp 8y ago

> If you’ve never been exposed to the flu, it’s possible to make a vaccine that teaches your immune system to look for those structures and attack them. But once you’ve had the flu, your body obsesses over the strain that got you sick. That makes it really hard to get your immune system to look for the common structures. Very interesting, I did not know that.

vincentmarle 8y ago
Ah, so the body is basically overfitting the training data.
- nikbackm 8y ago
  Probably better than the other way around.

gamma-male 8y ago

Are there other great and insightful blogs from important personalities like this one? Maybe warren buffet's blog?

peteretep 8y ago
Warren Buffet writes very insightful letters to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway which you can find online
- rococode 8y ago
  Here's a link: http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html

lostmsu 8y ago

IMHO, what he thought at 25 is more useful than what he thinks now.

kieckerjan 8y ago
Say that again when he has eradicated polio or malaria.
- lostmsu 8y ago
  Many would like to eradicate polio or malaria. The methods are known. Problem is to get resources to do that. Those resources were created by the work of 25yo Bill Gates.
leesec 8y ago
This comment is so useless and belittling.

peteretep 8y ago

> The only problem where I don’t yet see a clear path forward yet is how to develop more efficient ways to recruit patients for clinical trials. Without a simple and reliable diagnostic for Alzheimer’s, it’s hard to find eligible people early enough in the disease’s progression who can participate in trials. There’s an interesting use case for Facebook’s Machine Learning algorithms

yulaow 8y ago
Oh please NO. Let's try to not insert facebook also in our supersensitive medical data, considering how shady they are even with non-sensitive data it's clear it won't end well at all.
- peteretep 8y ago
  Medical data has strong governance around it
  - majewsky 8y ago
    Which is why Facebook should not be allowed to touch it with a ten-foot pole.

ensiferum 8y ago

"We still need a lot of innovation to solve problems like malaria or obesity ..." There's really no innovation needed for the latter. Just educate people and when that fails implement better controls, i.e. sugar taxes on sodas and food. Fundamentally the goal should be get rid of refined sugars in foods, especially high fructose corn syrup.

lnsru 8y ago
You have no idea about obesity...
- maccard 8y ago
  I saw an article [0] posted on here, which made me reconsider my feelings on obesity. It's worth a read even if you don't agree with the conclusion (I still don't), it was very thought provoking 0 - https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/12/7/16587316/bariatric-surgery-weight-loss-lap-band https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/12/7/16587316/ba...
- sjroot 8y ago
  Either bring more to the discussion or abstain from commenting. What exactly are you trying to say?
  - lnsru 8y ago
    It’s not about education or price. It’s a pure emotional thing. You can ban sugar and all fast food, but the people will find something to abuse. There is a need for some nation wide happiness improvement program.
    - sjroot 8y ago
      Perhaps it could be more than one factor? I agree that there will always be something to abuse.
hguhghuff 8y ago

Aardwolf 8y ago

If this is Bill Gates blog, I do wonder the following: On first visit, it pops up a modal subscribe email dialog. On a second visit, a distracting large survey thing slid in from the bottom. Why would Bill Gates need spammy patterns that detract from reading the text on his personal blog?

fabricexpert 8y ago
He's still a brand that needs to be marketed
- majewsky 8y ago
  This assertion is presented without any arguments to support it.
- PavlovsCat 8y ago
  Put a super pretty looking button in the sidebar to subscribe to the newsletter, and on subsequent visits have a "take the survey" button show up. As a bonus, that doesn't get blocked by adblockers, and doesn't annoy those who aren't interested. I might be bored and see what the questions of a survey are, and maybe take it if they're interesting, but not if it's a pop-up.
- Aardwolf 8y ago
  Wouldn't his brand look better without these spammy things? It's a person writing insightful stuff, not an entity shoving clickbait in your face.
vishalsharma 8y ago
you should consider using uBlock Origin , I am using it and not getting any messages

ratsimihah 8y ago

> Did I devote enough time to my family? Did I learn enough new things? Did I develop new friendships and deepen old ones? These would have been laughable to me when I was 25 I'm almost 30 and those are my priorities, maybe that's why I am not as "successful" as Bill Gates?

ArcMex 8y ago
I was thinking something similar. I'm 28 and 2018 was a difficult year because I had to end many, many friendships because it became harder and harder for me to relate to them on a level I desire for my personal growth but I digress. The fact that Gates mentions that he thinks about these things now as opposed to his 20s makes me wonder if I am making the right decisions here. Still, I have made great progress. Sober and cigarette free for over a year, in a committed relationship for the first time since 7 years ago and a stable income and some savings in there somewhere. So maybe there is benefit to be had from being old young.
- kamaal 8y ago
  >>I had to end many, many friendships because it became harder and harder for me to relate to them >>I desire for my personal growth but I digress. >>The fact that Gates mentions that he thinks about these things now as opposed to his 20s makes me wonder if I am making the right decisions here. A few days back some one on HN mentioned that most people on earth, are not going to terrible failures or spectacular successes. Once you come to this realization. You will take your health, mental health, friendships, relationships and hobbies far more seriously. After a while all you want is a peaceful, normal life with happy relationships and healthy body. After a while you can earn enough. And you are going to be eating the same burgers, as a billionaire eats to fill stomach. The beef ain't exactly going to come from heaven for trading extra efforts for sure failure. >> Still, I have made great progress. That which is in locomotion must arrive at the half-way stage before it arrives at the goal. — as recounted by Aristotle, Physics VI:9, 239b10 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#Achilles_and_the_tortoise https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeno%27s_paradoxes#Achilles_an... For a lot of things in life, there are indeed infinite sub tasks you need to complete. Most of us aren't going to make it. Bail out while you have time.

cyrilllllll 8y ago

In the same way that windows is not bug-free, nuclear plants are not safe, at all. And they will never be. Without considering accidents, for only 50 years of comfort, we have shamefully produced deadly waste, that future generations will have to keep confined at all costs for thousands and thousands and thousands of years. Unlike CO2, uranium pollutes in the very long term, destroying all bacteria in the environment. It is high time to get up-to-date with renewable sources of energy.

arnoooooo 8y ago
Also, climate change promises a lot of trouble, I'm not sure we want so many nuclear power plants lying around.
lexpar 8y ago
You say "without considering accidents", but I'd argue that accidents are usually negligible to begin with. Yes there were the "big" incidents early in the history of nuclear power, but besides being huge public relation disasters, these disasters are not so "big" compared to other energy production accidents (e.g. offshore drilling, mining, etc). Yes 100% solar/wind would be virtually accident free, but if you argue this point too hard you let the perfect become the enemy of the good. I always like to point out to people (it often surprises them) that the province of Ontario gets more than half of its energy from nuclear plants [1]. How often do you hear about horrible accidents in Ontario? Not so often - there hasn't been a major clean up required since the mid 90s. And these are facilities built in the 60s! Anecdotal, but this is the sort of "quiet evidence" of nuclear safety that is easy to ignore. [1] https://www.ontario.ca/document/2017-long-term-energy-plan-discussion-guide/ontarios-energy-mix-end-2015 https://www.ontario.ca/document/2017-long-term-energy-plan-d...
cesnja 8y ago
The very basic point you're using here might be incorrect [1]. The difference is that all the nuclear radioactive waste is concentrated while the things coming out of coal plants are significantly diluted and mixed with local air. Therefore I think nuclear is better than coal plants even in the short term. [1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-ash-is-more-radioactive-than-nuclear-waste/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coal-ash-is-more-...

rtx 8y ago

> Nuclear is ideal for dealing with climate change, because it is the only carbon-free, scalable energy source that’s available 24 hours a day. The problems with today’s reactors, such as the risk of accidents, can be solved through innovation. So refreshing to see someone with his reach pushing for nuclear.

Retric 8y ago
Though still missing the mark. Nuclear’s biggest issue is cost. If it was cheap enough companies would have built more and scaled them up and down to meet demand, instead France only got mostly Nuclear by exporting its excess and nobody else really got very close to full nuclear. The problem today is wind costs less. But, when you add a lot of wind during times of high wind your nuclear becomes useless. This ends up driving up the effective cost of nuclear even higher. Storage makes this worse as you would then just want ever more wind due to cost.
- SCHiM 8y ago
  The cost is a political problem. It's easier for the opponents of nuclear to find support for stricter and stricter safety laws for new reactors. Driving up the cost, making them economically nonviable. Meanwhile the older and far more dangerous reactors are rotting away and cannot be replaced (or are replaced with fossil fuels). It's been pointed out again, again and again. Coal plants pump out more radioactive waste than is ever released by all the accidents to date, catching a plane will irradiate you more than living next to one, etc. etc.
  - Retric 8y ago
    If that where true China would happily jump on the nuclear bandwagon. Instead, they use minimal Nuclear because the basic cost of running a nuclear power plant reasonably safely can’t become really cheap. Nuclear in China is 40.6 GW vs 290GW or so total power production. They are adding 14 GW but these things take time so the ratio will stay about the same. Meanwhile they are ramping up wind and solar extremely quickly with a stated goal of 1,300 GW of peak solar capacity by 2050 which they are on pace to reach. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_China https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_China

davebryand 8y ago

"We still need a lot of innovation to solve problems like malaria or obesity, but we are also going to be focusing more on improving the quality of life." To solve obesity we need the opposite of innovation. Nature has delivered the perfect array of nutrition for the human animal to thrive. We have innovated ourself into obesity and the reversion to the simple truth of natural nutrition is the cure.

kup0 8y ago
A reversion that very few will undertake. Unless there is some kind of innovation that can affect that (social engineering? who knows) So in light of the harsh reality that obesity is essentially a given, what CAN be done?
- davebryand 8y ago
  I don't see why anything should be done. Obesity is your body telling you that you are doing food consumption wrong. If the human that is wearing a large body in life doesn't find the awareness to recognize that they must change their behavior, I don't believe society should try to innovate them a thinner body. Their currently large body is a gift from nature intended to signal that a course correction is needed. This enlarged body (which will usually come back to shape and health through corrected nutrition) is a manifestation of a more fundamental internal issue (mental or emotional). Innovating thin bodies while not addressing the internal issues will only cause more problems for this human and society at large.
  - Wowfunhappy 8y ago
    > Obesity is your body telling you that you are doing food consumption wrong. On the contrary, obesity likely exists because evolution optimized for the ability to survive long famines, which isn't a big problem in most developed nations nowadays.
  - kup0 8y ago
    I've tried losing weight and eating healthier and I can always stick to doing it for a while, but always gradually start eating worse and worse again. So I am aware, and have tried, and yet it feels like there's something bigger always pulling me back to eating poorly. Is it addiction? Is it some biological process (the body wanting to retain its new equilibrium)? Is it the fact that my taste buds tend to prefer the flavors of unhealthy food a majority of the time? Clearly the problem is bigger than obese people being aware of their obesity and trying (and failing) to change it. There are other forces at play, and I think, difficult ones to overcome. Separately, why not still try to innovate or do something to reduce the burden obesity places on the healthcare system (regardless of how you feel about the individuals)?

ipython 8y ago

Gates' resolution to learn and think more about the intersection between privacy and innovation is absolutely spot on. I've been thinking about better ways that we can approach chronic illnesses through health tracking, but absolutely terrified of the implication of that data falling into the wrong hands - and not even for nefarious purposes. For example, I would not trust my health insurance company with information that may indicate I am predisposed to an illness or disease lest they brand me as a high risk, pre-existing condition patient, and deny or price me out of coverage forever. I'd rather do my own experimentation outside of the 'official' medical community than to risk my own data being used as a weapon against me. Somewhat unrelated, I feel that the next underexplored area of medical science is that of the gut & intestines. Having a toilet that could do continual personalized analyses of your urine and stool is going to revolutionize medicine. However, as much as I believe that this is an opportunity to change the world for the better, I would never purchase such a device under the current privacy and security climate. I hope we can start to resolve these issues in 2019 and beyond so we can unlock these sorts of innovations to help people on a daily basis with chronic conditions.

allentucker 8y ago

We’re asking the guy who thought the internet had no potential to predict the future?