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If ask Reddit is anything to go by this is slowly becoming normal. You have to wonder if 20-30 years from now mores will have shifted to reflect the reality th

If ask Reddit is anything to go by this is slowly becoming normal. You have to wonder if 20-30 years from now mores will have shifted to reflect the reality that there are often familial buried secrets of every kind out there. https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/search?q=Dna&restrict_sr=on https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/search?q=Dna&restrict_sr=...

lallysingh 8y ago
There was a study in the UK some decades ago showing that roughly 30% of kids weren't from the father's they thought they were. I got this reference indirectly from The Red Queen, an interesting book. It's packed away, so I can't give anything more specific.
- danieltillett 8y ago
  The non-paternatity rate is very class dependant. In the upper-middle the rate is quite low, but in the underclasses it can get up to around 20%.
  - iguy 8y ago
    No way, 1-2% is more like the range. For the western world, for serious studies e.g. tracking surnames vs Y chromosomes. Most much higher figures come from counting only disputed cases, which are obviously going to be skewed. Edit, some links: Surname "Sykes": https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1288207/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1288207/ Bone marrow: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22688803 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22688803
    - danieltillett 8y ago
      Most people are not members of the underclass. Anyway you can't really use historical data like this to estimate the non-paternity rate today.
      - iguy 8y ago
        Indeed the Sykes data is long-term history, and I think of a middle-class sample. But it does teach us that received wisdom was badly wrong there, which should make us less confident of the same wisdom elsewhere. The bone marrow study was 2012, and no class has a monopoly on Leukemia. I would not be surprised if there were a class gradient, but an average of under 2% doesn't leave room for a very big underclass to be scoring 20% or 30%. These are England and Germany, things could be different elsewhere, I don't know whether there is good data.
- tvjoyfbhde 8y ago
  IIRC that might have been a convenience sample of families where non-paternity was suspected. Most estimates of historical non-paternity in Europe yield low single digits.
- opportune 8y ago
  I’m pretty sure the historical rate has been around 4%. Depends on the population, Wikipedia cites 2-12%: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-paternity_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-paternity_event. Wouldn’t be surprised if that study had some kind of confounding variable
- barry-cotter 8y ago
  > How Well Does Paternity Confidence Match Actual Paternity? > Evolutionary theory predicts that males will provide less parental investment for putative offspring who are unlikely to be their actual offspring. Crossculturally, paternity confidence (a mans assessment of the likelihood that he is the father of a putative child) is positively associated with mens involvement with children and with investment or inheritance from paternal kin. A survey of 67 studies reporting nonpaternity suggests that for men with high paternity confidence rates of nonpaternity are(excluding studies of unknown methodology) typically 1.9%, substantially less than the typical rates of 10% or higher cited by many researchers. Further crosscultural investigation of the relationship between paternity and paternity confidence is warranted. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/504167 https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/504167
mjfl 8y ago
I read somewhere that paternal uncertainty is the leading cause of male violence in every culture in the world, from aboriginal Australia to New York. You wonder, if evolution (cultural or biological) has not allowed any variance in this trait - it must be necessary for reproduction. It would mean that men who don't get angry at the prospect of raising another man's children, inescapably raise another man's children.
- scythe 8y ago
  http://www.martindaly.ca/uploads/2/3/7/0/23707972/cinderella_effect_2008.pdf http://www.martindaly.ca/uploads/2/3/7/0/23707972/cinderella... >The most thorough analyses are from Canada, where data in a national archive of all homicides known to police indicate that children under 5 years of age were beaten to death by their putative genetic fathers at a rate of 2.6 deaths per million child-years at risk (residing with their fathers), while the corresponding rate for stepfathers was over 120 times higher at 321.6 (Daly&Wilson, 2001). That is a very large odds ratio.
  - BurningFrog 8y ago
    You know, that does make me think about my step dad a bit differently...
  - MRD85 8y ago
    I wouldn't attribute this entirely to "my kid vs not my kid". I live in a western country and it's typically lower socio-economic groups that split and recouple with really young kids (i.e <5). The most at-risk groups for violence in these early years tend to also have uncoupled parents who are constantly seeing new men. If you split these statistics through 10th percentile socioeconomic groups I'm sure it wouldn't be as significant as 120 times. This paper is 10 years old and references Sweden as having less than a 10x increase.
  - iguy 8y ago
    > 2.6 deaths per million child-years at risk Thinking aloud: that's about 1/7 of Canada's murder rate, and if I guess that under-5 children are 7% of population, such things would make up 1% of all murders, which does not sound crazy to me. If step-dads are 100x more dangerous, and 10% of kids have one (just a guess) then step-kid murders would be 10% of all murders. That sounds high but perhaps not crazy? 321.6 / million is about 20x the whole country's murder rate.
paulcole 8y ago
Many of those posts are shills doing viral marketing for 23andMe. Check out /r/HailCorporate for more details.
alecco 8y ago
In France and Germany they banned paternity tests https://www.irishtimes.com/news/french-men-s-insecurity-over-paternity-of-offspring-creating-a-society-of-doubt-1.773569 https://www.irishtimes.com/news/french-men-s-insecurity-over...
- Semaphor 8y ago
  > On May 15th, the German Bundesrat adopted a similar measure. Not sure what this is talking about, but DNA Paternity tests are most certainly legal in Germany there is even a right to have one done: https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/bgb/__1598a.html https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/bgb/__1598a.html edit: So I checked, what happened is that Germany banned genetic tests where there is no consent from the party a sample was taken from. In the case of a paternity test where the father, mother or child is unwilling, a court can instead force the test as knowing paternity has been decided to be a constitutional right.
  - solidsnack9000 8y ago
    Auf Antrag eines Klärungsberechtigten hat das Familiengericht eine nicht erteilte Einwilligung zu ersetzen und die Duldung einer Probeentnahme anzuordnen. Upon a right-of-clarification request, the family court may substitute for consent not given and order submission to a test sample.
gammateam 8y ago
I hope so because my more is “who cares” and apparently thats not the popular thought right now But what does it really change The rapport you built or didnt is the same, with the people you grew up with Whatever they taught you about infidelity is still to make your life more convenient Find out whatever diseases you are actually predisposed to, or dont If you have a decent life already, probability is your “real” family lived in an overpopulated bottom rung of society. If not, its still unlikely you get to be part of anything now that the secret is out. Send a note for kicks, but why create the drama?

lallysingh 8y ago

There was a study in the UK some decades ago showing that roughly 30% of kids weren't from the father's they thought they were. I got this reference indirectly from The Red Queen, an interesting book. It's packed away, so I can't give anything more specific.

danieltillett 8y ago
The non-paternatity rate is very class dependant. In the upper-middle the rate is quite low, but in the underclasses it can get up to around 20%.
- iguy 8y ago
  No way, 1-2% is more like the range. For the western world, for serious studies e.g. tracking surnames vs Y chromosomes. Most much higher figures come from counting only disputed cases, which are obviously going to be skewed. Edit, some links: Surname "Sykes": https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1288207/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1288207/ Bone marrow: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22688803 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22688803
  - danieltillett 8y ago
    Most people are not members of the underclass. Anyway you can't really use historical data like this to estimate the non-paternity rate today.
    - iguy 8y ago
      Indeed the Sykes data is long-term history, and I think of a middle-class sample. But it does teach us that received wisdom was badly wrong there, which should make us less confident of the same wisdom elsewhere. The bone marrow study was 2012, and no class has a monopoly on Leukemia. I would not be surprised if there were a class gradient, but an average of under 2% doesn't leave room for a very big underclass to be scoring 20% or 30%. These are England and Germany, things could be different elsewhere, I don't know whether there is good data.
tvjoyfbhde 8y ago
IIRC that might have been a convenience sample of families where non-paternity was suspected. Most estimates of historical non-paternity in Europe yield low single digits.
opportune 8y ago
I’m pretty sure the historical rate has been around 4%. Depends on the population, Wikipedia cites 2-12%: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-paternity_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-paternity_event. Wouldn’t be surprised if that study had some kind of confounding variable
barry-cotter 8y ago
> How Well Does Paternity Confidence Match Actual Paternity? > Evolutionary theory predicts that males will provide less parental investment for putative offspring who are unlikely to be their actual offspring. Crossculturally, paternity confidence (a mans assessment of the likelihood that he is the father of a putative child) is positively associated with mens involvement with children and with investment or inheritance from paternal kin. A survey of 67 studies reporting nonpaternity suggests that for men with high paternity confidence rates of nonpaternity are(excluding studies of unknown methodology) typically 1.9%, substantially less than the typical rates of 10% or higher cited by many researchers. Further crosscultural investigation of the relationship between paternity and paternity confidence is warranted. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/504167 https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/504167

mjfl 8y ago

I read somewhere that paternal uncertainty is the leading cause of male violence in every culture in the world, from aboriginal Australia to New York. You wonder, if evolution (cultural or biological) has not allowed any variance in this trait - it must be necessary for reproduction. It would mean that men who don't get angry at the prospect of raising another man's children, inescapably raise another man's children.

scythe 8y ago
http://www.martindaly.ca/uploads/2/3/7/0/23707972/cinderella_effect_2008.pdf http://www.martindaly.ca/uploads/2/3/7/0/23707972/cinderella... >The most thorough analyses are from Canada, where data in a national archive of all homicides known to police indicate that children under 5 years of age were beaten to death by their putative genetic fathers at a rate of 2.6 deaths per million child-years at risk (residing with their fathers), while the corresponding rate for stepfathers was over 120 times higher at 321.6 (Daly&Wilson, 2001). That is a very large odds ratio.
- BurningFrog 8y ago
  You know, that does make me think about my step dad a bit differently...
- MRD85 8y ago
  I wouldn't attribute this entirely to "my kid vs not my kid". I live in a western country and it's typically lower socio-economic groups that split and recouple with really young kids (i.e <5). The most at-risk groups for violence in these early years tend to also have uncoupled parents who are constantly seeing new men. If you split these statistics through 10th percentile socioeconomic groups I'm sure it wouldn't be as significant as 120 times. This paper is 10 years old and references Sweden as having less than a 10x increase.
- iguy 8y ago
  > 2.6 deaths per million child-years at risk Thinking aloud: that's about 1/7 of Canada's murder rate, and if I guess that under-5 children are 7% of population, such things would make up 1% of all murders, which does not sound crazy to me. If step-dads are 100x more dangerous, and 10% of kids have one (just a guess) then step-kid murders would be 10% of all murders. That sounds high but perhaps not crazy? 321.6 / million is about 20x the whole country's murder rate.

paulcole 8y ago

Many of those posts are shills doing viral marketing for 23andMe. Check out /r/HailCorporate for more details.

alecco 8y ago

In France and Germany they banned paternity tests https://www.irishtimes.com/news/french-men-s-insecurity-over-paternity-of-offspring-creating-a-society-of-doubt-1.773569 https://www.irishtimes.com/news/french-men-s-insecurity-over...

Semaphor 8y ago
> On May 15th, the German Bundesrat adopted a similar measure. Not sure what this is talking about, but DNA Paternity tests are most certainly legal in Germany there is even a right to have one done: https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/bgb/__1598a.html https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/bgb/__1598a.html edit: So I checked, what happened is that Germany banned genetic tests where there is no consent from the party a sample was taken from. In the case of a paternity test where the father, mother or child is unwilling, a court can instead force the test as knowing paternity has been decided to be a constitutional right.
- solidsnack9000 8y ago
  Auf Antrag eines Klärungsberechtigten hat das Familiengericht eine nicht erteilte Einwilligung zu ersetzen und die Duldung einer Probeentnahme anzuordnen. Upon a right-of-clarification request, the family court may substitute for consent not given and order submission to a test sample.

gammateam 8y ago

I hope so because my more is “who cares” and apparently thats not the popular thought right now But what does it really change The rapport you built or didnt is the same, with the people you grew up with Whatever they taught you about infidelity is still to make your life more convenient Find out whatever diseases you are actually predisposed to, or dont If you have a decent life already, probability is your “real” family lived in an overpopulated bottom rung of society. If not, its still unlikely you get to be part of anything now that the secret is out. Send a note for kicks, but why create the drama?