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The problem is the word 'beat' in the title. Markets aren't zero-sum. Apple has thrived over the past decade by focussing on rich margins and on expanding marke
by gabrielroth 16y ago
The problem is the word 'beat' in the title. Markets aren't zero-sum. Apple has thrived over the past decade by focussing on rich margins and on expanding markets, rather than by competing for a bigger sliced of a fixed-size pie.
There's no reason Apple and Android can't both "win" in the phone market. But we'd need to define "win." For Apple it would mean selling a lot of devices and making a good profit on each device. For Google it would mean, uh, some kind of complicated bank shot where more people click on AdSense ads from their phone. (It's hard to see how they'd even know if they won.)
But note that Google would be fine with a future in which the iPhone is still very popular, as long as it doesn't completely dominate the market. (People do a lot of Google searches from their iPhones.) And Apple would be fine with a future in which Android owns the low end of the phone market, i.e. the low-margin commodity devices that are given away free or very cheap with low-end plans.
But of course, stories like "It's X versus Y in a cage match to the death!" are very appealing, even when they're wrong.
- Andrewski 16y agoThere is a cage match, and it is for developer mindshare. Google's java clone environment vs. Apple's Obj-c solution. This was the whole thrust of his article. Code for Android because pretty soon they will be dropping them from blimps for free. The crucial bit for a developer is how do you make any money on a platform where cheap is the prime consideration. There are more Android units out there than iOS devices, yet iOS devices yield something like 92% of the dollar sales of applications. This is the most important figure to a developer who wants to eat, and yet in his analysis it is strangely absent.
- gabrielroth 16y agoThere is a cage match, and it is for developer mindshare. But that too is non-zero-sum. The number of hours spent on phone software development is increasing rapidly. If Apple continues to sell a substantial number of iPhones, and Android users start buying apps for their devices too, there's no reason there can't be two viable markets for phone-app developers. (I'm not saying it's inevitable that Android will become a viable platform—I'm just saying that, even if it does, its growth won't necessarily come out of Apple's hide.)
- Andrewski 16y agoI am not optimistic about the success of droid phone store solutions. Much money can be had by individuals coding for app stores on their own, and most individuals will not target both platforms (in my opinion) so they go where the money is. The fact of the matter is that droid users do NOT buy apps for the most part. Some do, but most do not. There is also a desire to own the iPhone as a status symbol / fashion accessory. Nobody buys an iPhone clone running Android because it is cool, they get one thrown in for free with their contract.
- NickPollard 16y agoConsidering the number of my co-workers who have been raving about their HTC Desires for the last 6 months, I think you should be careful with your generalizations.
- gte910h 16y agoAdditionally, thinks like titanium are doing well enough at bringing out cross platform apps which work fine on both platforms.
- irons 16y ago* There are more Android units out there than iOS devices, yet iOS devices yield something like 92% of the dollar sales of applications.* Android's only outselling iOS in the US, and only since October — iOS still has a 4:1 or 5:1 edge on installed base. That'll shift over time, of course, but I don't know anyone who expects the iOS/Android revenue split to follow it in short order. Who buys apps for a phone that was dropped out of a blimp?
- JeffL 16y agoI don't know about phone apps, but in online games, some of the really big winners that you don't hear too much about are the games that are "free" but then make money off of micro-transactions. Once you get a huge install base, there are all kinds of ways to make money. Perhaps it's a valid analogy.
- skinnymuch 16y agocan you name some really big winners eith online games that fit what you're saying? I'm assuming the obvious one is Zygna, but that's all I know.
- elblanco 16y agoReally "win" just means "able to sell lots of stuff and make a profit". Nintendo realized this a few years ago and actually was profitable with the gamecube even though it didn't come close to outselling the PS2.
- access_denied 16y ago> People do a lot of Google searches from their iPhones. You have it right there. Google already has 'win'. As long as the #1 search engine on mobile devices by a large chunk is Google, the have 'win'. Extra-bonus if they make some dough out of some Android plus Ads scheme.