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The partial goverment shutdown is caused by the president's unwillingness to sign a bill as well as Congress's inability to pass a bill the president is willing

by max76 8y ago

The partial goverment shutdown is caused by the president's unwillingness to sign a bill as well as Congress's inability to pass a bill the president is willing to sign. The defused blame sets the game matrix to a state where the delta value between the bill congress agrees on and the bill the president will sign is significantly larger than the defecting penalty any oneside side will suffer. Removing a paycheck from all actors won't provide a significant adjustment to the game matrix, because the reputation deduction portion of the the defector penalty is significantly more valuable than salary. Some actors actually see a reputation increase for fighting this fight. While increasing the defector penalty is a good idea, reduction of salary doesn't increase it much.

smallnamespace 8y ago
Yes, but politics is also a game about making people feel that their government is fair and legitimate, not 'merely' efficient at decisionmaking.
- max76 8y ago
  Right, the largest sufferer of reputation loss is Congress's collective brand. Individual actors are relatively consequence free.
gammateam 8y ago
> The partial goverment shutdown is caused by the president's unwillingness to sign a bill as well as Congress's inability to pass a bill the president is willing to sign. you forgot: or pass a bill the president can't sign, by overriding a veto but that also requires even greater consensus than Congress can currently achieve.
- max76 8y ago
  > you forgot: or pass a bill the president can't sign, by overriding a veto Are you talking about passing a bill with such a high majority that the president cannot veto the bill? I wonder if the budget was ever passed with such a majority.
- stephenboyd 8y ago
  The Senate unanimously passed a budget bill to extend current funding levels into February. It had a good chance of veto-proof supermajority support in the House, but the outgoing Speaker of the House refused to bring it to a vote.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
ecp9 8y ago
You're pretending people are rational automata who make decisions in their own self interest, which is rarely true in life. Very rarely true among political actors. I hope we can stop treating politics as a silly statistics game theory simulation for every actor and decision, because two decades of thinking like that has clearly not worked out for us. New ways of thinking, including consequences for bad actors, are a way to move the needle forward a bit even if it's not Spock's ideal solution.
- beaconstudios 8y ago
  > You're pretending people are rational automata who make decisions in their own self interest, which is rarely true in life. why do you think this? I would wager that most people are acting in the way they think is best, either for themselves or the people around them, either of which is a form of self-interest. Often in my experience what seems to me to be irrational from the outside is in fact very rational, and I just didn't have all the pertinent information.
  - HugeTom 8y ago
    I don't know, he seems to be right. Most people would ignore what they know to be good for them most of the times when it counts. Some of the examples that I can think of are Exercise good for health is known fact. Eating healthy food. Global warming consideration in day today work. Cigarette smoking. Continuous study vs last minute study for exams.
    - max76 8y ago
      I will agree that people do not typically act rationally, the entire field of economics learned this lesson the hard way. I think people act very strategically with their political careers, and while they may make blunders they are caused by bad luck and incompetence more than a lack of rational thought, especially at the national level.
    - beaconstudios 8y ago
      > Some of the examples that I can think of are You are assuming other people's goals - "good for you" is not always a clear objective measure. For some example counters: > Exercise good for health is known fact. > Eating healthy food. It also takes more time and most people find exercise and health food somewhat unpleasant compared to not taking these choices. If you're not optimising for longevity (which most people aren't, and it's not immediately obvious that they should given you're arguably subtracting usable time now to add time later on) then these aren't inherently rational choices. > Global warming consideration in day today work. This is a classic externality. It's perfectly logical to not shoulder the burden of trying to save the planet, especially if you don't think your efforts will make a difference. It's more of a moral responsibility, which while perfectly valid, it's not inherently rational to accept said responsibilities. > Cigarette smoking. There are many reasons people smoke, even though they know they're bad for you (though arguably lung cancer falls under the "won't happen to me" and "it's a problem for future me" logic fallacies, though then again people tend to positively weight benefits in youth vs costs in old age which seems sensible-ish). Social status. Being able to remain in the "in-group" if friends smoke. A feeling of danger or risk of being caught. All of these are reasons someone might start smoking as a teenager. which AFAIK is when most smokers start. > Continuous study vs last minute study for exams. That's genuinely irrational, and obviously ties into the way our brains work. My point wasn't that people are never irrational; it was that often behaviours that seem irrational from the outside make some kind of sense from the perspective of the participant/s. People don't generally just do things for no reason and rationality is inseparable from context.
danek 8y ago
Also caused by a president changing his mind at the last minute about signing a bill passed by Congress because Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh said he’d look weak if he signed it.
myrandomcomment 8y ago
A logical but morally flawed view. All services for both the congress and the executive branch (with the exception of the absolutely minimum required) should be stopped at this point. Cars, gym, Internet, TV, etc. No TV in the office of the congress, none in the White House. Meals should be cut to Army rations for the president, etc. We as citizens should demand this. In a rational system the failure of supply should trigger an election. The least we can do here is remove all but the most required items. A sensible solution would be for us to pass a law that requires funding to continue based on the last levels. I am tried of our leaders playing chicken with the lives of others. Our government on both sides lacks consequences for their actions.
- RileyJames 8y ago
  In 1975 in Australia, that’s pretty much what happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Australian_constitutional_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Australian_constitutional... A little more complicated, but it was sparked by the inability to pass the supply bill, which funds government expenditure.

by max76 8y ago

smallnamespace 8y ago

Yes, but politics is also a game about making people feel that their government is fair and legitimate, not 'merely' efficient at decisionmaking.

max76 8y ago
Right, the largest sufferer of reputation loss is Congress's collective brand. Individual actors are relatively consequence free.

gammateam 8y ago

> The partial goverment shutdown is caused by the president's unwillingness to sign a bill as well as Congress's inability to pass a bill the president is willing to sign. you forgot: or pass a bill the president can't sign, by overriding a veto but that also requires even greater consensus than Congress can currently achieve.

max76 8y ago
> you forgot: or pass a bill the president can't sign, by overriding a veto Are you talking about passing a bill with such a high majority that the president cannot veto the bill? I wonder if the budget was ever passed with such a majority.
stephenboyd 8y ago
The Senate unanimously passed a budget bill to extend current funding levels into February. It had a good chance of veto-proof supermajority support in the House, but the outgoing Speaker of the House refused to bring it to a vote.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

ecp9 8y ago

You're pretending people are rational automata who make decisions in their own self interest, which is rarely true in life. Very rarely true among political actors. I hope we can stop treating politics as a silly statistics game theory simulation for every actor and decision, because two decades of thinking like that has clearly not worked out for us. New ways of thinking, including consequences for bad actors, are a way to move the needle forward a bit even if it's not Spock's ideal solution.

beaconstudios 8y ago
> You're pretending people are rational automata who make decisions in their own self interest, which is rarely true in life. why do you think this? I would wager that most people are acting in the way they think is best, either for themselves or the people around them, either of which is a form of self-interest. Often in my experience what seems to me to be irrational from the outside is in fact very rational, and I just didn't have all the pertinent information.
- HugeTom 8y ago
  I don't know, he seems to be right. Most people would ignore what they know to be good for them most of the times when it counts. Some of the examples that I can think of are Exercise good for health is known fact. Eating healthy food. Global warming consideration in day today work. Cigarette smoking. Continuous study vs last minute study for exams.
  - max76 8y ago
    I will agree that people do not typically act rationally, the entire field of economics learned this lesson the hard way. I think people act very strategically with their political careers, and while they may make blunders they are caused by bad luck and incompetence more than a lack of rational thought, especially at the national level.
  - beaconstudios 8y ago
    > Some of the examples that I can think of are You are assuming other people's goals - "good for you" is not always a clear objective measure. For some example counters: > Exercise good for health is known fact. > Eating healthy food. It also takes more time and most people find exercise and health food somewhat unpleasant compared to not taking these choices. If you're not optimising for longevity (which most people aren't, and it's not immediately obvious that they should given you're arguably subtracting usable time now to add time later on) then these aren't inherently rational choices. > Global warming consideration in day today work. This is a classic externality. It's perfectly logical to not shoulder the burden of trying to save the planet, especially if you don't think your efforts will make a difference. It's more of a moral responsibility, which while perfectly valid, it's not inherently rational to accept said responsibilities. > Cigarette smoking. There are many reasons people smoke, even though they know they're bad for you (though arguably lung cancer falls under the "won't happen to me" and "it's a problem for future me" logic fallacies, though then again people tend to positively weight benefits in youth vs costs in old age which seems sensible-ish). Social status. Being able to remain in the "in-group" if friends smoke. A feeling of danger or risk of being caught. All of these are reasons someone might start smoking as a teenager. which AFAIK is when most smokers start. > Continuous study vs last minute study for exams. That's genuinely irrational, and obviously ties into the way our brains work. My point wasn't that people are never irrational; it was that often behaviours that seem irrational from the outside make some kind of sense from the perspective of the participant/s. People don't generally just do things for no reason and rationality is inseparable from context.

danek 8y ago

Also caused by a president changing his mind at the last minute about signing a bill passed by Congress because Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh said he’d look weak if he signed it.

myrandomcomment 8y ago

A logical but morally flawed view. All services for both the congress and the executive branch (with the exception of the absolutely minimum required) should be stopped at this point. Cars, gym, Internet, TV, etc. No TV in the office of the congress, none in the White House. Meals should be cut to Army rations for the president, etc. We as citizens should demand this. In a rational system the failure of supply should trigger an election. The least we can do here is remove all but the most required items. A sensible solution would be for us to pass a law that requires funding to continue based on the last levels. I am tried of our leaders playing chicken with the lives of others. Our government on both sides lacks consequences for their actions.

RileyJames 8y ago
In 1975 in Australia, that’s pretty much what happened: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Australian_constitutional_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Australian_constitutional... A little more complicated, but it was sparked by the inability to pass the supply bill, which funds government expenditure.