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The cheapest Tesla will be $46k once the tax credit expires at the end of the year. While that is a lot cheaper than before, it's still out of reach of the vas

The cheapest Tesla will be $46k once the tax credit expires at the end of the year. While that is a lot cheaper than before, it's still out of reach of the vast majority of Americans. I'm rooting for Tesla but that is a huge gap to close.

rory096 8y ago
Note that the tax credit phases out over the course of a year, so for Tesla it'll be $3750 in H1 '19 and $1875 in H2.
Retric 8y ago
That’s way off the mark. The federal tax credit is only 7,500$ and it’s not removed only dropping ~4K. As to affordability, it’s the used car market that attracts discount buyers making the sticker price largely irrelevant. Which is why even a new Honda Civic runs 20,000+$.
- nightski 8y ago
  What's off the mark? That is the price listed on Tesla's website. It's obfuscated by the fact that they incorporate "gas savings" into the displayed price, but if you click the info button they give you the "real" price.
  - Retric 8y ago
    The credit is only changing by 3,750 on January 1, it’s not hitting zero. $7,500 On or before December 31, 2018 $3,750 January 1 to June 30, 2019 $1,875 July 1 to December 31, 2019 That’s not to say the low battery range Tesla 3 will be out by June 30th, but the difference is not dramatic. You can argue how ‘real’ that gas savings is, but gas is not free and it’s going to be more relevant when someone is buying a used electric vehicle. The gas savings is just as meaningful in years 5-15 but you’re not paying MSRP.
    - nightski 8y ago
      So it will be $44k+ in July (vs the stated 46k). I stand corrected... If they can get the low battery range Tesla to mid 20s then we'll be talking. But if it is in the mid to upper 30s then the numbers don't really add up and the vehicle remains a luxury.
      - Retric 8y ago
        Again, if someone wants a car under 20k they are likely looking at a used car. We don’t have a lot of used electric cars yet, but that’s just a matter of time. PS: The fuel savings is massive which will push up resale prices and directly save their original owner money. Saving 20+k over 15+ years and several owners is not the same as a lower sticker price, but it’s far from meaningless.
_ph_ 8y ago
During 2019, cheaper versions with a smaller battery are expected, maybe even hitting the promised 35k for the entry level model. But probably still limited to the black color, others cost extra.
- cjhopman 8y ago
  Sure, but that was also true of 2017.
  - _ph_ 8y ago
    Tesla was quite explicit, that deliveries of the Model 3 started with the high end models first and work downwards from there. They actually started with a middle level model - long range battery but only rear wheel drive. That the production ramp-up was slower than hoped for is known. Mid 2018 they added the AWD model and the performance AWD model, later the mid-range rear wheel drive. Next step, that is clearly communicated by Tesla, will be the standard range battery. For that, they will build a new smaller and cheaper battery pack - the mid range has the same pack as the long range, just with fewer cells in it.
    - cjhopman 8y ago
      I'm sorry, but you are simply rewriting history. As late as July 2017 (when the Model 3 launched), Tesla was claiming that the base model would be available that year (https://electrek.co/2017/07/29/tesla-model-3-production-specs-revealed/ https://electrek.co/2017/07/29/tesla-model-3-production-spec...). They had been saying the same thing (that a $35,000 would exist and be available in 2017 for the previous 3 years).
dkhenry 8y ago
The top selling automobile in America (Ford F150), has a base price of 43k. The Second best selling automobile ( Chevy Silverado ) is at 42k. In total the Average sale price of an automobile in America is 34k Tesla is still above that, but not by much. I think people discount how much all those trucks and SUV's they see rolling around cost.
- linksnapzz 8y ago
  ~42K for a base domestic pickup might be MSRP. The actual transaction price is much, much less.
  - dkhenry 8y ago
    That is the actual transaction cost. The MSRP is lower for base model's but most cars sold are not base models.
    - justtopost 8y ago
      You specifically stated base model price in your post. Why are you arguing?
- CydeWeys 8y ago
  The F-150 has a base price of $28k. The Chevy Silverado also has a base price of $28k. Those are MSRPs, so you can get them cheaper with bargaining, though of course the average person ends up paying more because they're adding on options. I have no idea where you're getting those $43k figures from??
  - dkhenry 8y ago
    The average person ends up paying a lot more. Here is where I got my data from Ford F150 - https://www.truecar.com/prices-new/ford/f-150-pricing/ https://www.truecar.com/prices-new/ford/f-150-pricing/ Chevy Silverado - https://www.truecar.com/prices-new/chevrolet/silverado-1500-pricing/ https://www.truecar.com/prices-new/chevrolet/silverado-1500-... Thats the actual average paid.

rory096 8y ago

Note that the tax credit phases out over the course of a year, so for Tesla it'll be $3750 in H1 '19 and $1875 in H2.

Retric 8y ago

That’s way off the mark. The federal tax credit is only 7,500$ and it’s not removed only dropping ~4K. As to affordability, it’s the used car market that attracts discount buyers making the sticker price largely irrelevant. Which is why even a new Honda Civic runs 20,000+$.

nightski 8y ago
What's off the mark? That is the price listed on Tesla's website. It's obfuscated by the fact that they incorporate "gas savings" into the displayed price, but if you click the info button they give you the "real" price.
- Retric 8y ago
  The credit is only changing by 3,750 on January 1, it’s not hitting zero. $7,500 On or before December 31, 2018 $3,750 January 1 to June 30, 2019 $1,875 July 1 to December 31, 2019 That’s not to say the low battery range Tesla 3 will be out by June 30th, but the difference is not dramatic. You can argue how ‘real’ that gas savings is, but gas is not free and it’s going to be more relevant when someone is buying a used electric vehicle. The gas savings is just as meaningful in years 5-15 but you’re not paying MSRP.
  - nightski 8y ago
    So it will be $44k+ in July (vs the stated 46k). I stand corrected... If they can get the low battery range Tesla to mid 20s then we'll be talking. But if it is in the mid to upper 30s then the numbers don't really add up and the vehicle remains a luxury.
    - Retric 8y ago
      Again, if someone wants a car under 20k they are likely looking at a used car. We don’t have a lot of used electric cars yet, but that’s just a matter of time. PS: The fuel savings is massive which will push up resale prices and directly save their original owner money. Saving 20+k over 15+ years and several owners is not the same as a lower sticker price, but it’s far from meaningless.

_ph_ 8y ago

During 2019, cheaper versions with a smaller battery are expected, maybe even hitting the promised 35k for the entry level model. But probably still limited to the black color, others cost extra.

cjhopman 8y ago
Sure, but that was also true of 2017.
- _ph_ 8y ago
  Tesla was quite explicit, that deliveries of the Model 3 started with the high end models first and work downwards from there. They actually started with a middle level model - long range battery but only rear wheel drive. That the production ramp-up was slower than hoped for is known. Mid 2018 they added the AWD model and the performance AWD model, later the mid-range rear wheel drive. Next step, that is clearly communicated by Tesla, will be the standard range battery. For that, they will build a new smaller and cheaper battery pack - the mid range has the same pack as the long range, just with fewer cells in it.
  - cjhopman 8y ago
    I'm sorry, but you are simply rewriting history. As late as July 2017 (when the Model 3 launched), Tesla was claiming that the base model would be available that year (https://electrek.co/2017/07/29/tesla-model-3-production-specs-revealed/ https://electrek.co/2017/07/29/tesla-model-3-production-spec...). They had been saying the same thing (that a $35,000 would exist and be available in 2017 for the previous 3 years).

dkhenry 8y ago

The top selling automobile in America (Ford F150), has a base price of 43k. The Second best selling automobile ( Chevy Silverado ) is at 42k. In total the Average sale price of an automobile in America is 34k Tesla is still above that, but not by much. I think people discount how much all those trucks and SUV's they see rolling around cost.

linksnapzz 8y ago
~42K for a base domestic pickup might be MSRP. The actual transaction price is much, much less.
- dkhenry 8y ago
  That is the actual transaction cost. The MSRP is lower for base model's but most cars sold are not base models.
  - justtopost 8y ago
    You specifically stated base model price in your post. Why are you arguing?
CydeWeys 8y ago
The F-150 has a base price of $28k. The Chevy Silverado also has a base price of $28k. Those are MSRPs, so you can get them cheaper with bargaining, though of course the average person ends up paying more because they're adding on options. I have no idea where you're getting those $43k figures from??
- dkhenry 8y ago
  The average person ends up paying a lot more. Here is where I got my data from Ford F150 - https://www.truecar.com/prices-new/ford/f-150-pricing/ https://www.truecar.com/prices-new/ford/f-150-pricing/ Chevy Silverado - https://www.truecar.com/prices-new/chevrolet/silverado-1500-pricing/ https://www.truecar.com/prices-new/chevrolet/silverado-1500-... Thats the actual average paid.