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I don't know what this article is really trying to say, if it's saying that a zero cost labour force will drive a third industrial revolution, then I'd disagree

by iuguy 16y ago

I don't know what this article is really trying to say, if it's saying that a zero cost labour force will drive a third industrial revolution, then I'd disagree. The economy here in the UK is on the brink of collapse, as is our government. While the coalition looks solid on the outside the two parties involved are both undergoing an internal identity crisis, with some members of the lib dems leaning to the right and some tories leaning towards the centre. It's not really a radical government in any other concept than it's doing what is the only option left - to stop spending money. I don't see this revolution in the UK. There's a fair old bit of unemployment, nobody wants to spend money and interest rates are so low that any savings are being pretty much destroyed. Add rising prices for common things like food and petrol and you're not really creating the conditions for an industrial revolution.

Qz 16y ago
The economy here in the UK is on the brink of collapse, as is our government. Which is exactly when a revolution is likely to happen.
- rwmj 16y ago
  Don't worry though because neither the UK economy nor the government are really on the brink of collapse.
  - lwhi 16y ago
    We are on the brink of a double-dip recession though, and also face rising unemployment.
hnhg 16y ago
I don't what the article is trying to say either but I wouldn't say that the economy is on the brink of collapse. It's healthy in some parts, and in dire need of direction and help in others. That's from someone working across a lot of industries at the moment. I have a feeling the 2 ruling parties will work together until the first results of the cuts will come through before the next election, and then both will apportion blame/take credit in a vicious contest.
- iuguy 16y ago
  I would respectfully disagree. As someone who also works across a lot of industries I can tell you that retail has been through various forms of dead for the past two years, banking is recovering from the prior shocks but is pretending it's still ongoing to maximise profits (while in other parts of banking it still is ongoing - e.g. RBS) and the defence industry is about to go south (no falklands reference intended). Anything that sells to government is going to see a big reduction in revenues over the next few years, anything that sells B2C is going to face price pressures too. There's rising unemployment, rising costs despite the massaged inflation figures and credit interest rates are creeping up while saving interests remain locked at rates that destroy wealth. I think your point about the ruling parties is fine, except there's a bigger problem. We booted the Labour party out, but there's now no opposition. So when the two parties in power apportion blame, there's a very real risk that labour may come back in. If they do I would hope that they are able to put ideologies partly aside and work for the best interests of the country's future, but I'm not convinced they will. Thanks for your comment though, I appreciate seeing another view of the world on a site like this, where intelligent people can engage in intelligent debate. Thanks for showing me your view of things - we may not agree but I respect your opinion.
  - hnhg 16y ago
    I think your point of view is compelling, it's just that I'm choosing to be optimistic, for all that's worth. I hope that the nature of the coalition makes them think through some better thought-out economic policies by virtue of having to work together. I have my fingers-crossed but I can understand that this could also end up terribly. I also totally agree with your point about sharing a different point on things. Your reply certainly has got me thinking.
fauigerzigerk 16y ago
What the article is trying to say is that Britain is once again leading the world thanks to the far sighted, determined and wise leadership of the Conservative Party. It's a little comical considering that Germany, Switzerland and many others are much further along the way towards a knowledge driven re-emergence of manufacturing that doesn't depend on cheap labour. Britain is a glorified hedge fund with no manufacturing to speak of.
- iuguy 16y ago
  I'd say that the concept of our economy as a glorified hedge fund is going a bit too far. Ireland is a glorified hedge fund due to it's tax policies and financial investments. Britain is able to trade on it's asset base which is actually pretty large compared to the likes of Ireland. The manufacturing of which you speak has gone downhill, but given the country's history as the manufacturing powerhouse of the world initially, followed by the dissolution, renaissance and redissolution of it's base I don't see that as a huge problem. The British economy these days is largely a value-add services-driven economy. We don't manufacture because it's cheaper to get other countries to manufacture then develop services on top and make money through arbitrage on the difference. I'm not suggesting this is sustainable but it's the only thing we can do for now to remain competitive.
  - fauigerzigerk 16y ago
    Of course "glorified hedge fund" is an exaggeration and the UK does have pockets of innovation in industries like biotech. Services is 75% of GDP, 10% of GDP is financial services in the narrowest sense. That's compared to 7.5% in the US and 3.8% in Germany. How much of that huge services sector is linked to financial services? My own observation is that about half of all IT jobs in the UK are related to finance. I think it's fair to say that the value Britain adds to the world economy is dominated by investment banking. There are historical reasons for that, but the extremely lax approach to regulation plays a huge role as well. The UK is where hedge funds and investment banks from all over the world go to do the most daring kinds of gambles. AIG was the biggest insurer in the world. Their small London office bankrupted the entire company. Why was that office in London instead of New York? But my point is that any claim that the UK is leading the world in terms of a new type of knowledge driven, highly automated manufacturing model is completely delusional. It just doesn't exist outside of a few speeches David Cameron gave during the election campaign. Britain is not even on the map when it comes to technology. I don't know if this is a big problem. Maybe the world can sustain a few bloated financial centres and will do so for a long time to come. But if it turns out that finance as a share of world GDP has peaked, then the UK is in a very dire situation, arguably the worst outside if Iceland.

by iuguy 16y ago

Qz 16y ago

The economy here in the UK is on the brink of collapse, as is our government. Which is exactly when a revolution is likely to happen.

rwmj 16y ago
Don't worry though because neither the UK economy nor the government are really on the brink of collapse.
- lwhi 16y ago
  We are on the brink of a double-dip recession though, and also face rising unemployment.

hnhg 16y ago

I don't what the article is trying to say either but I wouldn't say that the economy is on the brink of collapse. It's healthy in some parts, and in dire need of direction and help in others. That's from someone working across a lot of industries at the moment. I have a feeling the 2 ruling parties will work together until the first results of the cuts will come through before the next election, and then both will apportion blame/take credit in a vicious contest.

iuguy 16y ago
I would respectfully disagree. As someone who also works across a lot of industries I can tell you that retail has been through various forms of dead for the past two years, banking is recovering from the prior shocks but is pretending it's still ongoing to maximise profits (while in other parts of banking it still is ongoing - e.g. RBS) and the defence industry is about to go south (no falklands reference intended). Anything that sells to government is going to see a big reduction in revenues over the next few years, anything that sells B2C is going to face price pressures too. There's rising unemployment, rising costs despite the massaged inflation figures and credit interest rates are creeping up while saving interests remain locked at rates that destroy wealth. I think your point about the ruling parties is fine, except there's a bigger problem. We booted the Labour party out, but there's now no opposition. So when the two parties in power apportion blame, there's a very real risk that labour may come back in. If they do I would hope that they are able to put ideologies partly aside and work for the best interests of the country's future, but I'm not convinced they will. Thanks for your comment though, I appreciate seeing another view of the world on a site like this, where intelligent people can engage in intelligent debate. Thanks for showing me your view of things - we may not agree but I respect your opinion.
- hnhg 16y ago
  I think your point of view is compelling, it's just that I'm choosing to be optimistic, for all that's worth. I hope that the nature of the coalition makes them think through some better thought-out economic policies by virtue of having to work together. I have my fingers-crossed but I can understand that this could also end up terribly. I also totally agree with your point about sharing a different point on things. Your reply certainly has got me thinking.

fauigerzigerk 16y ago

What the article is trying to say is that Britain is once again leading the world thanks to the far sighted, determined and wise leadership of the Conservative Party. It's a little comical considering that Germany, Switzerland and many others are much further along the way towards a knowledge driven re-emergence of manufacturing that doesn't depend on cheap labour. Britain is a glorified hedge fund with no manufacturing to speak of.

iuguy 16y ago
I'd say that the concept of our economy as a glorified hedge fund is going a bit too far. Ireland is a glorified hedge fund due to it's tax policies and financial investments. Britain is able to trade on it's asset base which is actually pretty large compared to the likes of Ireland. The manufacturing of which you speak has gone downhill, but given the country's history as the manufacturing powerhouse of the world initially, followed by the dissolution, renaissance and redissolution of it's base I don't see that as a huge problem. The British economy these days is largely a value-add services-driven economy. We don't manufacture because it's cheaper to get other countries to manufacture then develop services on top and make money through arbitrage on the difference. I'm not suggesting this is sustainable but it's the only thing we can do for now to remain competitive.
- fauigerzigerk 16y ago
  Of course "glorified hedge fund" is an exaggeration and the UK does have pockets of innovation in industries like biotech. Services is 75% of GDP, 10% of GDP is financial services in the narrowest sense. That's compared to 7.5% in the US and 3.8% in Germany. How much of that huge services sector is linked to financial services? My own observation is that about half of all IT jobs in the UK are related to finance. I think it's fair to say that the value Britain adds to the world economy is dominated by investment banking. There are historical reasons for that, but the extremely lax approach to regulation plays a huge role as well. The UK is where hedge funds and investment banks from all over the world go to do the most daring kinds of gambles. AIG was the biggest insurer in the world. Their small London office bankrupted the entire company. Why was that office in London instead of New York? But my point is that any claim that the UK is leading the world in terms of a new type of knowledge driven, highly automated manufacturing model is completely delusional. It just doesn't exist outside of a few speeches David Cameron gave during the election campaign. Britain is not even on the map when it comes to technology. I don't know if this is a big problem. Maybe the world can sustain a few bloated financial centres and will do so for a long time to come. But if it turns out that finance as a share of world GDP has peaked, then the UK is in a very dire situation, arguably the worst outside if Iceland.