4 ms·

Hate to be a naysayer but I disagree. English is used in international dealings and is spoken in a very large number of countries due to the british empire's wi

Hate to be a naysayer but I disagree. English is used in international dealings and is spoken in a very large number of countries due to the british empire's wide reach and influence compounded by americas dominance after WW2. Mandarin is a great language to learn in as much as Japanese,French and German are. Japan has long had a strong economy and exports a large number of goods,same with France and Germany except their colonial past and EU leadership positions makes their languages profitable to learn. China wants to influence the world and be the dominant super power. however,much like Japan and Korea,they are not interested in expanding their cultural reach. Westerners wanted everyone to dress like them,speak like them and act like them -- the "civilized" way. Sharing your culture eventually leads to immigration and the cultural influence of others impacting yours. Their ambition is purely for the success and prosperity of their own people,not a "manifest destiny" conquest and as such I strongly suspect they have little desire to force others to speak mandarin. What I'm trying to say is that while Mandarin has good ROI if you learn it,even 50 years from now it will likely still be comparable to learning French,German,Arabic and similar languages,and even then only if you deal with international trade and relations (or read tech/science publications -- seen some great write ups from Korean and Japanese security researchers FYI). Mandarin should not be thought of a replacement for english but rather a complement. I can see a future where people speak both languages for academia and international relations.

conanbatt 8y ago
Only that mandarin may open up a world of 1.2 billion people, a whole universe to explore. The case with japanese is a great one tho! Japan is way more advanced and still a huge place to learn about, and although it has less population, its way more relatable and maybe even more practical.
- iforgotpassword 8y ago
  > Only that mandarin may open up a world of 1.2 billion people, a whole universe to explore. Just that they're all from the same country mostly. Going by raw numbers isn't a good metric here. Something like "number of countries or cultures where you can communicate with the average person using that language" would be a better fit, and this is where English will probably still be king for a long time.
  - conanbatt 8y ago
    Its not about replacing english but why not pick it as a second language? Even japan doesnt speak english very well: when I was there almost nobody spoke well enough for a conversation. And japan is obsessed with english as well!
    - iforgotpassword 8y ago
      Sure, if it's just about broadening your mind picking a language that's far away from yours is the best choice. But considering China's importance as a potential market it's probably not relevant for you as a tech person, but rather for your company's sales people and decision makers. And even then, China's English skills are probably only getting better over time. My experience regarding English in Asia was similar to yours. Actually I feel like China is doing slightly better regarding English. The average college student there is able to have simple conversation. In Japan, most struggled to express the most basic things. Obviously, outside of these circles you're completely lost in both counties. Except this odd experience in one McDonald's in Beijing where they had one lady on staff that spoke perfect English. I don't know if China is putting more emphasis on teaching English, or it's because more Chinese students spend time abroad (not just in absolute numbers obviously).
shanghaiaway 8y ago
50 years from now, Mandarin will be much more useful than Arabic or French, because it will be the largest market in the world. If you deal with China professionally, knowing Mandarin will be an advantage.
- BuckRogers 8y ago
  Markets are unifying, eg the EU, in reaction to large nations like the US and China. It's extremely unlikely in 50 years that things are as you described. A bi-polar Chinese and US world will accelerate single market pacts. These mega nations are likely spelling the end of the nation state as a useful concept, which after regional market pacts leads to world government. Trump is a last battle cry against globalism, but it can't be stopped. US and Chinese power guarantees it.
  - shanghaiaway 8y ago
    China will pass the US as the largest market within five years so what I'm saying is certain to happen. Sure, as a regular boring American 9-5er you won't need it but if you want something more from life you better learn a language and Mandarin is objectively going to be the most useful.
    - votepaunchy 8y ago
      Within 5 years India will overtake China as the world’s most populated country, and Africa is expected to reach 4 billion by the end of the century. China’s moment is now, not 50 years from now.
      - shanghaiaway 8y ago
        Africa is not a country.
        balt_s 8y ago
        Where would you rather live and work: a random African country, or China? Does this answer change in 50 years?
commandlinefan 8y ago
I thought the same thing about Japanese back in the 90’s, when Japan seemed to be going the same way. Being able to speak, read & write Japanese has not been professionally useful to me in any way. I’m glad I learned it and all, but it definitely was no kind of “investment”.

conanbatt 8y ago

Only that mandarin may open up a world of 1.2 billion people, a whole universe to explore. The case with japanese is a great one tho! Japan is way more advanced and still a huge place to learn about, and although it has less population, its way more relatable and maybe even more practical.

iforgotpassword 8y ago
> Only that mandarin may open up a world of 1.2 billion people, a whole universe to explore. Just that they're all from the same country mostly. Going by raw numbers isn't a good metric here. Something like "number of countries or cultures where you can communicate with the average person using that language" would be a better fit, and this is where English will probably still be king for a long time.
- conanbatt 8y ago
  Its not about replacing english but why not pick it as a second language? Even japan doesnt speak english very well: when I was there almost nobody spoke well enough for a conversation. And japan is obsessed with english as well!
  - iforgotpassword 8y ago
    Sure, if it's just about broadening your mind picking a language that's far away from yours is the best choice. But considering China's importance as a potential market it's probably not relevant for you as a tech person, but rather for your company's sales people and decision makers. And even then, China's English skills are probably only getting better over time. My experience regarding English in Asia was similar to yours. Actually I feel like China is doing slightly better regarding English. The average college student there is able to have simple conversation. In Japan, most struggled to express the most basic things. Obviously, outside of these circles you're completely lost in both counties. Except this odd experience in one McDonald's in Beijing where they had one lady on staff that spoke perfect English. I don't know if China is putting more emphasis on teaching English, or it's because more Chinese students spend time abroad (not just in absolute numbers obviously).

shanghaiaway 8y ago

50 years from now, Mandarin will be much more useful than Arabic or French, because it will be the largest market in the world. If you deal with China professionally, knowing Mandarin will be an advantage.

BuckRogers 8y ago
Markets are unifying, eg the EU, in reaction to large nations like the US and China. It's extremely unlikely in 50 years that things are as you described. A bi-polar Chinese and US world will accelerate single market pacts. These mega nations are likely spelling the end of the nation state as a useful concept, which after regional market pacts leads to world government. Trump is a last battle cry against globalism, but it can't be stopped. US and Chinese power guarantees it.
- shanghaiaway 8y ago
  China will pass the US as the largest market within five years so what I'm saying is certain to happen. Sure, as a regular boring American 9-5er you won't need it but if you want something more from life you better learn a language and Mandarin is objectively going to be the most useful.
  - votepaunchy 8y ago
    Within 5 years India will overtake China as the world’s most populated country, and Africa is expected to reach 4 billion by the end of the century. China’s moment is now, not 50 years from now.
    - shanghaiaway 8y ago
      Africa is not a country.
      - balt_s 8y ago
        Where would you rather live and work: a random African country, or China? Does this answer change in 50 years?

commandlinefan 8y ago

I thought the same thing about Japanese back in the 90’s, when Japan seemed to be going the same way. Being able to speak, read & write Japanese has not been professionally useful to me in any way. I’m glad I learned it and all, but it definitely was no kind of “investment”.