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Yes and no. Yes, the US has a ton of debt, and we definitely need to reduce our accumulation of it soon. No in that the US debt is out in the open, as is our g
by village-idiot 8y ago
Yes and no.
Yes, the US has a ton of debt, and we definitely need to reduce our accumulation of it soon. No in that the US debt is out in the open, as is our growth numbers.
The important thing with debt is the growth rate in interest payments. Those can go up by changing rates, and by changing levels of debt. As long as your GDP out-grows your interest payments, there is no reason to stop. It's once your interest payments start outgrowing your economy (and thus your ability to tax & cover the payments) then you end up in a world of hurt.
With China, there are two distinct possibilities:
1. They're lying about their GDP growth.
2. They're lying about their debt.
They're been accused of 1 for a long time. There are some researchers using light emission to estimate GDP, who claim that China's GDP might be 25% lower than they claim [0]. Meanwhile they might have up to $5.8 trillion in debt tied up in their local government. This doubles the "official" debt level of the Chinese government, a massive level of fraud if true.
Combined, the Chinese debt to GDP ratio might be as high as 150%. This is alarmingly high, much much higher than the US has ever reached. Keep in mind that China currently is paying a higher interest rate on its federal debt too compared to the US.
[0] https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/new-study-shines-light-literally-on-chinas-and-russias-fake-gdp-data/ https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/new-study-shin...
[1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-debt/china-local-governments-hidden-debt-could-total-58-trillion-sp-idUSKCN1MQ0JH https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-debt/china-...