Humans tend to naturally do this. The danger is hindsight bias; we can't put ourselves in the same position as those making the decision. (Not just in an info

Humans tend to naturally do this. The danger is hindsight bias; we can't put ourselves in the same position as those making the decision. (Not just in an informational sense -- people's worldviews were different because society was structured differently). Hindsight bias is incredibly powerful, it's impossible for us to blend "obvious" signal back into the noise. Think about the discussions around whether the US should have "known" about the Pearl Harbor raid -- in hindsight, there were signals that should have alerted leadership. In reality, there was so much information that the actual signal blended into the noise. It's only much later that we know the Japanese telegrams were meaningful.