7 ms·

It would be better if they gave incentives to their own for having children.

by hnauz 8y ago

bayesian_horse 8y ago
Why would that be better? If that worked, it will take 20 to 30 years to see any improvement in the workforce, but will cost a lot up-front. However, financial incentives have never worked. In fact, I don't know of a single political measure which has significantly raise birth rates. The only way that might work would be to discourage women's education, which of course nobody wants (I hope...). Children are massively expensive, especially to the parents. Parents, especially those who work, can't be "compensated" for the work, costs and risks of raising children. The motivation to raise children is entirely irrational from the perspective of the individual.
- asianthrowaway 8y ago
  Because immigrants are here to stay. This will forever change the demographic composition of Japan. I think one only has to look at Europe to see that mass immigration of low skilled labor from foreign cultures does a lot of harm in the long run.
  - bayesian_horse 8y ago
    So far the immigration of low skilled workers has worked out quite well here in Germany. We still have a better social welfare system, better health care (overall), free university and so on... Turkish, Italian and Polish immigrants, most of them unskilled at arrival, have contributed hugely to Germany's success in the past century, and they still do. The "long term harm" is blown well out of proportion, and to ignore that history is at best dishonest...
  - untog 8y ago
    Europe has had mass migration for hundreds of years, and hasn't suffered from it. The whole idea of Europe being invaded is overblown nonsense.
  - Scarblac 8y ago
    What long run harm in Europe are you talking about?
  - dang 8y ago
    Since we just asked you to stop posting like this, I've banned this account. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- zozbot123 8y ago
  > I don't know of a single political measure which has significantly raise birth rates. Economic freedom, and getting rid of pervasive and extreme rent-seeking (especially at the local level) which raises the cost of caring for kids, and for the kids themselves to start a new household when they grow up. You can see this in places as different politically as the Scandinavian countries (e.g. Denmark), and the U.S. "Red" states. It just works, it's simply anathema in every way to all sorts of out-of-touch elites.
  - bayesian_horse 8y ago
    You're not citing facts, just anecdotes. It's hard to argue that Denmark is seeing a long-term rise in birth rates, let alone attribute that to any one such factor. And guess what, Denmark had a lot of immigration... As for the US "Red" states it gets even more complicated, and part of that equation is the religiosity and that those who can afford it, and maybe would have fewer children anyway, just flee those areas in mass...
- candiodari 8y ago
  This attitude is referred to as "eating your seedcorn" and ... well good luck with that.
- fiblye 8y ago
  >Children are massively expensive, especially to the parents. Parents, especially those who work, can't be "compensated" for the work, costs and risks of raising children. The motivation to raise children is entirely irrational from the perspective of the individual. So, essentially, no reasonable person would have children. Instead we should have an underclass of people who were, in your words, "irrational" enough to have children to move to another country to work for very low wages and serve and literally change the diapers of the aging, enlightened elite who were rational enough to not have children. Raising birth rates to a sustainable level is a long term investment and stable solution. Mass immigration just kicks the can down the road. And currently, only two neighboring countries have birth rates above replacement rates: Indonesia and the Philippines. Their birth rates will likely drop below the replacement rate by 2050, in which case mass immigration from those countries to other countries deprives them of a stable future and royally screws countries who were dependent on immigrants who will no longer exist.
  - bayesian_horse 8y ago
    Nothing wrong with a solidly irrational motivation. The desire to become parents seems to be a neuro-biological thing, influenced by genetics, random stuff and psychological factors. I don't believe that getting children for the greater good is a massive thing. And again, there still is no proven way to increase birth rates short of authoritarian measures.

It would be better if they gave incentives to their own for having children.

by hnauz 8y ago

It would be better if they gave incentives to their own for having children.

Why would that be better? If that worked, it will take 20 to 30 years to see any improvement in the workforce, but will cost a lot up-front. However, financial incentives have never worked. In fact, I don't know of a single political measure which has significantly raise birth rates. The only way that might work would be to discourage women's education, which of course nobody wants (I hope...). Children are massively expensive, especially to the parents. Parents, especially those who work, can't be "compensated" for the work, costs and risks of raising children. The motivation to raise children is entirely irrational from the perspective of the individual.

asianthrowaway 8y ago
Because immigrants are here to stay. This will forever change the demographic composition of Japan. I think one only has to look at Europe to see that mass immigration of low skilled labor from foreign cultures does a lot of harm in the long run.
- bayesian_horse 8y ago
  So far the immigration of low skilled workers has worked out quite well here in Germany. We still have a better social welfare system, better health care (overall), free university and so on... Turkish, Italian and Polish immigrants, most of them unskilled at arrival, have contributed hugely to Germany's success in the past century, and they still do. The "long term harm" is blown well out of proportion, and to ignore that history is at best dishonest...
- untog 8y ago
  Europe has had mass migration for hundreds of years, and hasn't suffered from it. The whole idea of Europe being invaded is overblown nonsense.
- Scarblac 8y ago
  What long run harm in Europe are you talking about?
- dang 8y ago
  Since we just asked you to stop posting like this, I've banned this account. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
zozbot123 8y ago
> I don't know of a single political measure which has significantly raise birth rates. Economic freedom, and getting rid of pervasive and extreme rent-seeking (especially at the local level) which raises the cost of caring for kids, and for the kids themselves to start a new household when they grow up. You can see this in places as different politically as the Scandinavian countries (e.g. Denmark), and the U.S. "Red" states. It just works, it's simply anathema in every way to all sorts of out-of-touch elites.
- bayesian_horse 8y ago
  You're not citing facts, just anecdotes. It's hard to argue that Denmark is seeing a long-term rise in birth rates, let alone attribute that to any one such factor. And guess what, Denmark had a lot of immigration... As for the US "Red" states it gets even more complicated, and part of that equation is the religiosity and that those who can afford it, and maybe would have fewer children anyway, just flee those areas in mass...
candiodari 8y ago
This attitude is referred to as "eating your seedcorn" and ... well good luck with that.
fiblye 8y ago
>Children are massively expensive, especially to the parents. Parents, especially those who work, can't be "compensated" for the work, costs and risks of raising children. The motivation to raise children is entirely irrational from the perspective of the individual. So, essentially, no reasonable person would have children. Instead we should have an underclass of people who were, in your words, "irrational" enough to have children to move to another country to work for very low wages and serve and literally change the diapers of the aging, enlightened elite who were rational enough to not have children. Raising birth rates to a sustainable level is a long term investment and stable solution. Mass immigration just kicks the can down the road. And currently, only two neighboring countries have birth rates above replacement rates: Indonesia and the Philippines. Their birth rates will likely drop below the replacement rate by 2050, in which case mass immigration from those countries to other countries deprives them of a stable future and royally screws countries who were dependent on immigrants who will no longer exist.
- bayesian_horse 8y ago
  Nothing wrong with a solidly irrational motivation. The desire to become parents seems to be a neuro-biological thing, influenced by genetics, random stuff and psychological factors. I don't believe that getting children for the greater good is a massive thing. And again, there still is no proven way to increase birth rates short of authoritarian measures.