4 ms·

In a world with 7.7 billion people, why are declining birth rates almost always described as problem?

by eeZah7Ux 8y ago

sannee 8y ago
Because children in Africa are not going to finance retirement of japanese elderly.
- david-gpu 8y ago
  Or at least, not without very substantial immigration.
  - chappi42 8y ago
    Of the former children from Africa, Syria, Afghanistan etc. which came to Germany (Europe) in the last three years a too high percentage does not seem to have the ability (or willingness) to replace a worker in Germany. Immigration alone doesn't help. It may even make matters worse if the 'wrong' people come. (I wrote 'seems' because it is difficult to get objective hard numbers for this emotional subject). Regarding birthrates/immigration: Help without conditions is wrong, I now think. NGO's should not be allowed to 'help in Africa' (and Afghanistan, ...) without making sure that the birthrates drop significantly. Providing modern medicine without enforcing the 'recipients' to adapt the culture/custom will lead to a desaster in those countries (and if 'everybody' migrates - in Europe also (will happen after my lifetime probably)).
    - david-gpu 8y ago
      When immigration is discussed, it is important to separate refugees, illegal immigration, and legal immigration. Being an island nation, Japan is in a good position to control their borders tightly compared with other countries like Germany. It then becomes a question of having a well-designed immigration process that selects young, healthy, highly-educated folks who, most importantly, must speak the local language fluently. Canada has a pretty good system in place for this.
  - saywhatnowman 8y ago
    Why do you think it's okay to make African children pay for elderly Japanese and Europeans? Why do you assume they would even want that? They are not instruments born to serve your desires.
- zozbot123 8y ago
  They might finance retirement of chinese, though. Immigration is nice, but it's far from the only path to sustained economic development.
Arnt 8y ago
If you stand with one foot in a bucket of ice cold water and one foot in a bucket of scalding hot water, you're not comfortable on average. The imbalance is a problem because of things like lone grandchildren inheriting the houses and wealth of four grandparents and others inheriting nothing. It's a problem because some areas have established fine education structures that cannot simply be shifted to another continent. It's a problem because the youths aren't where the jobs are, and haven't been educated by a system that's tuned to the jobs in that area. And so on.
- fulafel 8y ago
  Japan has a progressive inheritance tax so the wealth distribution problem is mitigated somewhat.
beerlord 8y ago
Because the population is decreasing in high-IQ countries, where the vast, vast majority of humanity's economic, scientific and cultural output is generated, and increasing in low-IQ countries, which are typically stricken by famine, warfare, poor human rights (particularly for women) and foreign aid reliance.
- faissaloo 8y ago
  Then things will simply have to change out of necessity, it's really quite simple. You don't seriously think people in 'low-IQ countries' aren't going to develop at astounding rates once the 'high-IQ countries' are gone right? Don't forget that modern western civilization came from the dark ages and modern Islamic civilisation came from the Islamic golden age. These things are cyclical, they come and go, there's really no reason to be panicking.
  - saywhatnowman 8y ago
    > there's really no reason to be panicking. The top comment here is a person who has had the unfortunate experience of realizing that their cultural and genetic family are at high risk of being trimmed away from the tree of life. That's a pretty serious existential dread to swallow. Have some sympathy for them. I mean, if all of humanity were going extinct could we say something like "well, at least there's a good chance that squids will evolve sentience someday so we will live on through squidkind no reason to panic" and make you feel better about it? And if that worked, maybe we ought not to even worry about the entire solar system being wiped out since there are plenty of other solar systems (no need to be such a xenophobic solist). And if that made you feel better maybe we ought to not mind the whole galaxy being wiped out because ... and etc... etc... c:
    - faissaloo 8y ago
      When all of humanity goes extinct (which is inevitable), I will be more concerned about the method of extinction than the extinction itself. Even the collapse of this reality, while grand is minor in the face of what I believe comes after. I prefer not to make too big a big deal out of the inevitable, at least not until I get there.

In a world with 7.7 billion people, why are declining birth rates almost always described as problem?

sannee 8y ago

Because children in Africa are not going to finance retirement of japanese elderly.

david-gpu 8y ago
Or at least, not without very substantial immigration.
- chappi42 8y ago
  Of the former children from Africa, Syria, Afghanistan etc. which came to Germany (Europe) in the last three years a too high percentage does not seem to have the ability (or willingness) to replace a worker in Germany. Immigration alone doesn't help. It may even make matters worse if the 'wrong' people come. (I wrote 'seems' because it is difficult to get objective hard numbers for this emotional subject). Regarding birthrates/immigration: Help without conditions is wrong, I now think. NGO's should not be allowed to 'help in Africa' (and Afghanistan, ...) without making sure that the birthrates drop significantly. Providing modern medicine without enforcing the 'recipients' to adapt the culture/custom will lead to a desaster in those countries (and if 'everybody' migrates - in Europe also (will happen after my lifetime probably)).
  - david-gpu 8y ago
    When immigration is discussed, it is important to separate refugees, illegal immigration, and legal immigration. Being an island nation, Japan is in a good position to control their borders tightly compared with other countries like Germany. It then becomes a question of having a well-designed immigration process that selects young, healthy, highly-educated folks who, most importantly, must speak the local language fluently. Canada has a pretty good system in place for this.
- saywhatnowman 8y ago
  Why do you think it's okay to make African children pay for elderly Japanese and Europeans? Why do you assume they would even want that? They are not instruments born to serve your desires.
zozbot123 8y ago
They might finance retirement of chinese, though. Immigration is nice, but it's far from the only path to sustained economic development.

Arnt 8y ago

If you stand with one foot in a bucket of ice cold water and one foot in a bucket of scalding hot water, you're not comfortable on average. The imbalance is a problem because of things like lone grandchildren inheriting the houses and wealth of four grandparents and others inheriting nothing. It's a problem because some areas have established fine education structures that cannot simply be shifted to another continent. It's a problem because the youths aren't where the jobs are, and haven't been educated by a system that's tuned to the jobs in that area. And so on.

fulafel 8y ago
Japan has a progressive inheritance tax so the wealth distribution problem is mitigated somewhat.

beerlord 8y ago

Because the population is decreasing in high-IQ countries, where the vast, vast majority of humanity's economic, scientific and cultural output is generated, and increasing in low-IQ countries, which are typically stricken by famine, warfare, poor human rights (particularly for women) and foreign aid reliance.

faissaloo 8y ago
Then things will simply have to change out of necessity, it's really quite simple. You don't seriously think people in 'low-IQ countries' aren't going to develop at astounding rates once the 'high-IQ countries' are gone right? Don't forget that modern western civilization came from the dark ages and modern Islamic civilisation came from the Islamic golden age. These things are cyclical, they come and go, there's really no reason to be panicking.
- saywhatnowman 8y ago
  > there's really no reason to be panicking. The top comment here is a person who has had the unfortunate experience of realizing that their cultural and genetic family are at high risk of being trimmed away from the tree of life. That's a pretty serious existential dread to swallow. Have some sympathy for them. I mean, if all of humanity were going extinct could we say something like "well, at least there's a good chance that squids will evolve sentience someday so we will live on through squidkind no reason to panic" and make you feel better about it? And if that worked, maybe we ought not to even worry about the entire solar system being wiped out since there are plenty of other solar systems (no need to be such a xenophobic solist). And if that made you feel better maybe we ought to not mind the whole galaxy being wiped out because ... and etc... etc... c:
  - faissaloo 8y ago
    When all of humanity goes extinct (which is inevitable), I will be more concerned about the method of extinction than the extinction itself. Even the collapse of this reality, while grand is minor in the face of what I believe comes after. I prefer not to make too big a big deal out of the inevitable, at least not until I get there.