My investment approach is stocks, for long-term investment, based on fundamental valuation metrics (CAPE etc). YTD result is roughly -5% on paper, before tax.

My investment approach is stocks, for long-term investment, based on fundamental valuation metrics (CAPE etc). YTD result is roughly -5% on paper, before tax. Current allocation is about 40% stocks, 22% bonds, 3% reit, 35% cash. Ignoring the cash, YTD result is about -8%. I sold ~ 1/4 of stock portfolio in January and moved moved the resulting cash into bonds or saving accounts. At the start of this year I believed that US equities were over-valued compared to their historical valuation, I still believe they are. The current large allocation to cash is to give flexibility (to e.g. buy cheap stock or for a down payment on a house) in scenarios where there is a large drop in stock market prices and I need to avoid selling any stock for 5-10+ years until prices rise. Some interesting reading for stock market valuation: https://www.starcapital.de/fileadmin/user_upload/files/publikationen/Research_2016-01_Predicting_Stock_Market_Returns_Shiller_CAPE_Keimling.pdf https://www.starcapital.de/fileadmin/user_upload/files/publi... http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2018/01/future-u-s-equity-returns-a-best-case-upper-limit/ http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2018/01/future-u-s-equ...