4 ms·

am i nuts or did the bubble already lose all of it's air? MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG have lost 20+% of their market cap since the peaks at end of august/mid s

by mylons 8y ago

am i nuts or did the bubble already lose all of it's air? MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG have lost 20+% of their market cap since the peaks at end of august/mid september. S&P500 and DJI are at 52 week lows after people proclaimed another 3-5 years of The Golden Bull Run on CNBC. the crash happened, it just took months, not seconds.

singularity2001 8y ago
honey, you haven't witnessed deep recessions.
- mikestew 8y ago
  One of the “words of wisdom” I filed away years ago was spoken by a guy who at the time was about my age, a middle-aged guy who had been investing for decades. In the early 2000s during during the dot bomb collapse, he said, “a lot of the problem is that younger people haven’t been through a true bear market.” As you said, you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. But the lesson to be learned from us oldsters is, sit tight and buy cheap stocks for your 401K for a while. It’ll come back, it always does, and timing the market is a fool’s errand (DAMHIK). You’re not retiring tomorrow, and if like me it’s coming soon, absolute worst case is it gets put off for a few years. But losing a year’s worth of gains? Welcome to the stock market, it does that sometimes.
- dang 8y ago
  Personal swipes aren't allowed here. Please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and follow the rules.
ceejayoz 8y ago
The 2008 recession saw the Dow retreat to a two decade low. Losing a year of market gains certainly doesn't indicate things are over. A recession hasn't even started yet.
- onlyrealcuzzo 8y ago
  Ray Dalio wrote a book about the different kind of debt cycles. Just because 2007 was bad, doesn't mean this recession will be equally bad. There are short term debt cycles and long term debt cycles.
  - ceejayoz 8y ago
    I'm not saying the next recession has to be equally bad. I'm saying the next recession hasn't even started yet, let alone being nearly finished.
  - naravara 8y ago
    >Ray Dalio wrote a book about the different kind of debt cycles. Just because 2007 was bad, doesn't mean this recession will be equally bad. Our response to 2007 was functionally just stopping the bleeding and tying a tourniquet. We never actually managed to push through many of the substantive economic reforms we needed, so we're functionally in an even worse position now to address a future contraction. We didn't replace the steady jobs, we replaced them with contractor and gig work which will fall away much more rapidly if the economy slows down. The deficit is higher and the tax base is lower, meaning we have less room to do spending programs to give the economy a boost. We didn't address the massive pile of consumer debt, and we now sit on a $1 Trillion+ student loan bomb coupled with unsustainably high rents and home values in most of the largest job markets. This means much of the working class has limited savings and no cushion for when a crisis hits. At this point the risks of a recession aren't just losing investment value. We're risking pretty serious cases of social breakdown. I would expect rioting in the streets.
- dragontamer 8y ago
  Say it with me: The stock market is NOT the economy. A recession is a decrease in the GDP of the USA. This means people are LAID OFF, as companies don't have enough money to keep everyone on staff. Because people are laid off, there are fewer people buying stuff, which causes more people to be laid off. The stock market can go up during a recession. Its a bit unusual, but it isn't unheard of. Usually, the stock market goes down because people start to lean on their emergency savings, and are forced to sell off stocks while they're in between jobs. That, combined with lower profits (from the overall recession) makes people retreat towards safer investments, like Bonds. But otherwise, the stock market isn't really "the economy". Its just that Americans TEND to sell stocks and buy bonds when they see the signs of a recession. When you're worried about your job prospects, you act differently. When a lot of Americans are worried about their job, you can see it in various indicators.

by mylons 8y ago

singularity2001 8y ago

honey, you haven't witnessed deep recessions.

mikestew 8y ago
One of the “words of wisdom” I filed away years ago was spoken by a guy who at the time was about my age, a middle-aged guy who had been investing for decades. In the early 2000s during during the dot bomb collapse, he said, “a lot of the problem is that younger people haven’t been through a true bear market.” As you said, you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. But the lesson to be learned from us oldsters is, sit tight and buy cheap stocks for your 401K for a while. It’ll come back, it always does, and timing the market is a fool’s errand (DAMHIK). You’re not retiring tomorrow, and if like me it’s coming soon, absolute worst case is it gets put off for a few years. But losing a year’s worth of gains? Welcome to the stock market, it does that sometimes.
dang 8y ago
Personal swipes aren't allowed here. Please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and follow the rules.

ceejayoz 8y ago

The 2008 recession saw the Dow retreat to a two decade low. Losing a year of market gains certainly doesn't indicate things are over. A recession hasn't even started yet.

onlyrealcuzzo 8y ago
Ray Dalio wrote a book about the different kind of debt cycles. Just because 2007 was bad, doesn't mean this recession will be equally bad. There are short term debt cycles and long term debt cycles.
- ceejayoz 8y ago
  I'm not saying the next recession has to be equally bad. I'm saying the next recession hasn't even started yet, let alone being nearly finished.
- naravara 8y ago
  >Ray Dalio wrote a book about the different kind of debt cycles. Just because 2007 was bad, doesn't mean this recession will be equally bad. Our response to 2007 was functionally just stopping the bleeding and tying a tourniquet. We never actually managed to push through many of the substantive economic reforms we needed, so we're functionally in an even worse position now to address a future contraction. We didn't replace the steady jobs, we replaced them with contractor and gig work which will fall away much more rapidly if the economy slows down. The deficit is higher and the tax base is lower, meaning we have less room to do spending programs to give the economy a boost. We didn't address the massive pile of consumer debt, and we now sit on a $1 Trillion+ student loan bomb coupled with unsustainably high rents and home values in most of the largest job markets. This means much of the working class has limited savings and no cushion for when a crisis hits. At this point the risks of a recession aren't just losing investment value. We're risking pretty serious cases of social breakdown. I would expect rioting in the streets.
dragontamer 8y ago
Say it with me: The stock market is NOT the economy. A recession is a decrease in the GDP of the USA. This means people are LAID OFF, as companies don't have enough money to keep everyone on staff. Because people are laid off, there are fewer people buying stuff, which causes more people to be laid off. The stock market can go up during a recession. Its a bit unusual, but it isn't unheard of. Usually, the stock market goes down because people start to lean on their emergency savings, and are forced to sell off stocks while they're in between jobs. That, combined with lower profits (from the overall recession) makes people retreat towards safer investments, like Bonds. But otherwise, the stock market isn't really "the economy". Its just that Americans TEND to sell stocks and buy bonds when they see the signs of a recession. When you're worried about your job prospects, you act differently. When a lot of Americans are worried about their job, you can see it in various indicators.