It should be more than mild skepticism. If they’re late 10% of the time and the odds of a flat tire are 1 in 1000 (based on my driving experience I’d say that’

It should be more than mild skepticism. If they’re late 10% of the time and the odds of a flat tire are 1 in 1000 (based on my driving experience I’d say that’s a high estimate, too) then you should start by assigning a probability of around 1% to the flat tire hypothesis. Then modify that based on how honest they typically are.