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If someone is always late to everything, and then one day they really do have a flat tire and are late for good reason, and you doubt them when they say they ha

If someone is always late to everything, and then one day they really do have a flat tire and are late for good reason, and you doubt them when they say they have a flat, and that person asks "What am I supposed to do to make you believe me when I have a good reason?" The answer, though it may seem unfair in this particular instance, is to not always be late to everything else. If you have a pattern of abuse even legitimate behavior may appear as abuse. The solution is to not engage in a pattern of abuse.

hnauz 8y ago
It's good that you say that and that so many people are upvoting you. It means that any kind of debate around this is not possible because most people here are just out there to badmouth Facebook as much as they can. I like it when people are honest.
skybrian 8y ago
While this happens, is it a good thing? Or should try to avoid logical fallacies? If you want an accurate understanding of what's going on in the world, then you should probably believe that people who are habitually late do sometimes also get flat tires. If they say they had a flat, the logical conclusion isn't blind trust or being sure they're lying, but mild skepticism.
- elefanten 8y ago
  GP's scenario poses that the late person asks in exasperation what they need to do to be believed -- there's no logical fallacy in telling them why perceptions are stacked against them. Or in your framing, why it's skepticism instead of presumptive trust. Yes, the goal should be for both parties to reach a correct understanding: not at fault this time, but often is. Facebook, to some, appears to be only loudly arguing about the specific injustices they feel, without giving up much ground on their habitual mistakes.
  - harlanji 8y ago
    I can empathize with FB leadership, not condone of course. 5 years in SF consumer ad tech turned me into a shell of a person who was coming to accept that reality is created by certain peoples’ wills, so the only lie was deviating from the company message. “Air tight” stories and containment seemed like the M.O. and with 5 figure severance packages and more, I have a hard time seeing many people being the first to be vocal. Everyone wants that money, and most will lie hard for it. Not saying I went full shill, but memories of that time are interesting to reflect on. Surreal, disidentified. I think my soul is growing back, thankfully.
- beat 8y ago
  People aren't rational. If you want to deal with human behavior, you don't start by faulting them for their irrationality, you start by acknowledging that it's part of the package.
  - hinkley 8y ago
    But it's perfectly rational to distrust someone who isn't trustworthy. The only irrational part is when there's a disproportionate response, and that comes with part of the social contract - outside of existential threat, repetition and duration require an escalation of response until a behavioral correction is observed. It's a feedback system and feedback is also rational (only the form of the feedback might be questionable).
- mikeash 8y ago
  It should be more than mild skepticism. If they’re late 10% of the time and the odds of a flat tire are 1 in 1000 (based on my driving experience I’d say that’s a high estimate, too) then you should start by assigning a probability of around 1% to the flat tire hypothesis. Then modify that based on how honest they typically are.
emiliobumachar 8y ago
Nitpick: I would absolutely believe a chronically late person who said they had a flat tire, unless they also had a history of lying. If they consistently "lost track of time" or "got caught up doing X" but they one day get a flat, why wouldn't I believe them? I don't know if or how this affects the analogy.
- davidgrenier 8y ago
  Trust is earned and spent. If you regularly make commitments to be somewhere at some specific time and fail to meet that commitment you loose people's trust. You can't do much over the behavior of people's whose trust you've lost, so if they don't believe your flat tire story, too bad for you. How is systematically not meeting your time commitment not straigth up lying?
miracle2k 8y ago
My question here is to the precise nature of Facebook's wrong doing in this instance, and why we don't expect the New York Times to provide specifics. I am don't think any alleged previous wrongdoing answers those questions, unless you are saying there is no specific evidence of any wrong doing in the latest revelations, but we should assume there to be anyway.

hnauz 8y ago

It's good that you say that and that so many people are upvoting you. It means that any kind of debate around this is not possible because most people here are just out there to badmouth Facebook as much as they can. I like it when people are honest.

skybrian 8y ago

While this happens, is it a good thing? Or should try to avoid logical fallacies? If you want an accurate understanding of what's going on in the world, then you should probably believe that people who are habitually late do sometimes also get flat tires. If they say they had a flat, the logical conclusion isn't blind trust or being sure they're lying, but mild skepticism.

elefanten 8y ago
GP's scenario poses that the late person asks in exasperation what they need to do to be believed -- there's no logical fallacy in telling them why perceptions are stacked against them. Or in your framing, why it's skepticism instead of presumptive trust. Yes, the goal should be for both parties to reach a correct understanding: not at fault this time, but often is. Facebook, to some, appears to be only loudly arguing about the specific injustices they feel, without giving up much ground on their habitual mistakes.
- harlanji 8y ago
  I can empathize with FB leadership, not condone of course. 5 years in SF consumer ad tech turned me into a shell of a person who was coming to accept that reality is created by certain peoples’ wills, so the only lie was deviating from the company message. “Air tight” stories and containment seemed like the M.O. and with 5 figure severance packages and more, I have a hard time seeing many people being the first to be vocal. Everyone wants that money, and most will lie hard for it. Not saying I went full shill, but memories of that time are interesting to reflect on. Surreal, disidentified. I think my soul is growing back, thankfully.
beat 8y ago
People aren't rational. If you want to deal with human behavior, you don't start by faulting them for their irrationality, you start by acknowledging that it's part of the package.
- hinkley 8y ago
  But it's perfectly rational to distrust someone who isn't trustworthy. The only irrational part is when there's a disproportionate response, and that comes with part of the social contract - outside of existential threat, repetition and duration require an escalation of response until a behavioral correction is observed. It's a feedback system and feedback is also rational (only the form of the feedback might be questionable).
mikeash 8y ago
It should be more than mild skepticism. If they’re late 10% of the time and the odds of a flat tire are 1 in 1000 (based on my driving experience I’d say that’s a high estimate, too) then you should start by assigning a probability of around 1% to the flat tire hypothesis. Then modify that based on how honest they typically are.

emiliobumachar 8y ago

Nitpick: I would absolutely believe a chronically late person who said they had a flat tire, unless they also had a history of lying. If they consistently "lost track of time" or "got caught up doing X" but they one day get a flat, why wouldn't I believe them? I don't know if or how this affects the analogy.

davidgrenier 8y ago
Trust is earned and spent. If you regularly make commitments to be somewhere at some specific time and fail to meet that commitment you loose people's trust. You can't do much over the behavior of people's whose trust you've lost, so if they don't believe your flat tire story, too bad for you. How is systematically not meeting your time commitment not straigth up lying?

miracle2k 8y ago

My question here is to the precise nature of Facebook's wrong doing in this instance, and why we don't expect the New York Times to provide specifics. I am don't think any alleged previous wrongdoing answers those questions, unless you are saying there is no specific evidence of any wrong doing in the latest revelations, but we should assume there to be anyway.