5 ms·

Facebook as a website can go the way of MySpace. But Facebook as a company will probably not. The subject is touched a bit toward the end of the article but the

by maeln 8y ago

Facebook as a website can go the way of MySpace. But Facebook as a company will probably not. The subject is touched a bit toward the end of the article but the reality is this: Facebook has reached a critical mass, as a company, that MySpace never did. As such, they can just continue to buy all the other new social network that pop-up and make sure that they have a dominant position in the social network market. Unless they make a big mistake (which completely possible), Facebook, as any modern dominant company, will just continue consolidating and securing their market share.

pavlov 8y ago
Facebook today is in the same place as Microsoft in 2003-2007. Bad old API decisions made in pursuit of quick marketshare have come back to haunt. The main product is seen as lackluster and stagnated. Entries into new markets are seen as "me too" and out of sync with the brand image (Portal and Lasso might be Facebook's Zune). Microsoft survived all that and is now the world's most valuable corporation again. Facebook isn't going to die either because it's effectively the Windows of people's lives.
- mr_toad 8y ago
  Microsoft lives on enterprise sales; AD domain servers, CALs, Exchange, SQL server. I’m not sure Facebook has an equivalent product.
  - johannes1234321 8y ago
    Instead of AD servers it has ad servers.
    - juststeve 8y ago
      and clients
  - kazen44 8y ago
    Also, mosts of microsofts enterprise products are of quite good quality. especially active directory. Not to mention the insane, massive momentum microsoft has in terms of MSP's/Partners..
  - loudmax 8y ago
    Microsoft's vendor lock-in is still very dominant, and a lot of sysadmins don't really have a deep understanding of anything else. Facebook's social network effects are analogous to Microsoft's vendor lock-in, but they aren't as deeply entrenched.
- flexie 8y ago
  Facebook is far from where Microsoft were in 2003-2007. Most people (90-something percent?) could chose between Microsoft or Apple or no computer at all. Ordinary consumers could not use a text editor, a spreadsheet, send an email, or browse the internet, without doing it form either a Windows or Apple computer. Apple was a secluded niche for graphical designers and the like. Almost everybody else used a Windows computer. There were whole industries where everybody only used Windows operating system and the Office suite and where you could not work without. Almost nothing ties me to Facebook and most businesses are not dependent on Facebook in any way. I can use computers, phones etc. without Facebook. I can contact people without it, write to them, see their pictures and videos etc. I can go online without. Most companies nowadays function perfectly fine without Facebook. If Facebook disappeared, only a few niches such as game studios, advertisers etc. would truly lose customers or the ability to work with others. Most advertising could be done through other channels in a matter of hours. Contacts with friends could be made in days using other platforms. I was going to say that Facebook is where Microsoft were at some point in the late 70s or early 80s when it was just one out of several alternatives, but the comparison is just not good.
  - toastal 8y ago
    That's you though.... In many countries, Facebook is the 'free' internet citizens can interact with friends on. It can be used to leverage and ruin your social cred because of how intertwined and unchecked Facebook is in places like Myanmar.
    - drdeadringer 8y ago
      I was thinking similar. What if OP was living in a place where a cell phone and Facebook were "The Internet"? What if that was all OP knew and understood regarding such topics?
  - maire 8y ago
    Sorry - but Facebook made it trivially easy for a small group to put up a website. This is why we depend on it more than you realize. You can go to a Facebook based business site without having a Facebook account. I try not to use Facebook. I had to let my family and friends know because they are setting up party invitations and making announcements on Facebook. OK - so far so good. They post on Facebook then send me a private message. Then the camp fire happened in California (the Paradise fire). My brother in law's house burned and he is staying with us. He is not technically literate. Butte county is putting all disaster recovery information and streaming town hall meetings through Facebook! So I am back on Facebook to help my brother in law rebuild his home!
lmilcin 8y ago
You need to finance any buyout. There are three main sources you can use: cash, loan or stake in the company. Stake offers and loans are largely dependant on the image of health of the company. Remember, the calculated market value of company is mostly a promise of future income. If this promise is seen as unrealistic or too risky then the market value will crash and the main sources of its buying power can vanish overnight.
jasode 8y ago
>, they can just continue to buy all the other new social network that pop-up Yes, many people have this fatalistic perspective about FB but they shouldn't because Zuckerberg can't buy all the competition. Buying a company requires a willing seller[0]. Consider that Facebook itself rejected offers from Viacom (~$1.5 billion), Yahoo (~$1 billion), Microsoft ($24 billion), etc.[1][2] The bigger companies such as Microsoft can't force Zuckerberg to sell if he doesn't want to sell. Likewise, Facebook tried to buy Snapchat for $3 billion but Evan Spiegel said "no". Yes, Snapchat is no longer a threat but that doesn't mean another superior competitor can't rise up as a new threat that MZ can't buy. [0] my previous comment with other examples: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15733501 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15733501 [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/all-the-companies-that-ever-tried-to-buy-facebook-2010-5#nbc-met-with-facebook-in-2005-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/all-the-companies-that-ever-... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/video/2016/10/21/steve-ballmer-microsoft-tried-to-buy-facebook.html https://www.cnbc.com/video/2016/10/21/steve-ballmer-microsof...
- user5994461 8y ago
  These offers were a joke. Try adding one zero. Pretty sure VC would give a billion with little strings attached to any company that's threatening Facebook. Every seller has a price. WhatsApp went for $16B.
  - rapsey 8y ago
    They were not a joke. They were at an earlier stage of growth and all those prices were fair for what it was at the time.
    - user5994461 8y ago
      Don't be surprised when a company in early stages of growth (tens of millions of users with great potential for more) prefers to continue than take an early exit. The Microsoft deal looks incredibly one sided: https://www.businessinsider.com/steve-ballmer-microsoft-tried-to-buy-facebook-for-24-billion-2016-10 https://www.businessinsider.com/steve-ballmer-microsoft-trie... Anyway, prices are up. There is more cash available now than there was 10 years ago, not to mention than being acquired by Google/Facebook/Microsoft is a better brand name than Viacom. With funding rounds in over a hundred millions, the founders might not even get a good cut out of a (single) billion dollar sale.
buboard 8y ago
It doesnt even need to continue as a social network. They have a strong foothold in AI and are leading strong with their own DL framework.
- giancarlostoro 8y ago
  Serious question but what are examples of this? I can usually think of all the AI things Google (and Microsoft, Apple and Amazon) is (/are) working on, I'm not all that familiar with Facebook and AI.
  - kgraves 8y ago
    https://research.fb.com/category/facebook-ai-research/ https://research.fb.com/category/facebook-ai-research/
  - buboard 8y ago
    Pytorch
- maeln 8y ago
  I am far from being a expert in this field but isn't Facebook big advantage in AI is being a social network and having access to a huge amount of data ? As such, isn't their AI business very reliant on them being in the social network market ?
- jcfrei 8y ago
  I'm pretty sure the profit margins and revenue for their potential AI applications are nowhere close to what they get from advertisements right now.
WhompingWindows 8y ago
What are examples of a big mistake, in your eyes?

by maeln 8y ago

pavlov 8y ago

Facebook today is in the same place as Microsoft in 2003-2007. Bad old API decisions made in pursuit of quick marketshare have come back to haunt. The main product is seen as lackluster and stagnated. Entries into new markets are seen as "me too" and out of sync with the brand image (Portal and Lasso might be Facebook's Zune). Microsoft survived all that and is now the world's most valuable corporation again. Facebook isn't going to die either because it's effectively the Windows of people's lives.

mr_toad 8y ago
Microsoft lives on enterprise sales; AD domain servers, CALs, Exchange, SQL server. I’m not sure Facebook has an equivalent product.
- johannes1234321 8y ago
  Instead of AD servers it has ad servers.
  - juststeve 8y ago
    and clients
- kazen44 8y ago
  Also, mosts of microsofts enterprise products are of quite good quality. especially active directory. Not to mention the insane, massive momentum microsoft has in terms of MSP's/Partners..
- loudmax 8y ago
  Microsoft's vendor lock-in is still very dominant, and a lot of sysadmins don't really have a deep understanding of anything else. Facebook's social network effects are analogous to Microsoft's vendor lock-in, but they aren't as deeply entrenched.
flexie 8y ago
Facebook is far from where Microsoft were in 2003-2007. Most people (90-something percent?) could chose between Microsoft or Apple or no computer at all. Ordinary consumers could not use a text editor, a spreadsheet, send an email, or browse the internet, without doing it form either a Windows or Apple computer. Apple was a secluded niche for graphical designers and the like. Almost everybody else used a Windows computer. There were whole industries where everybody only used Windows operating system and the Office suite and where you could not work without. Almost nothing ties me to Facebook and most businesses are not dependent on Facebook in any way. I can use computers, phones etc. without Facebook. I can contact people without it, write to them, see their pictures and videos etc. I can go online without. Most companies nowadays function perfectly fine without Facebook. If Facebook disappeared, only a few niches such as game studios, advertisers etc. would truly lose customers or the ability to work with others. Most advertising could be done through other channels in a matter of hours. Contacts with friends could be made in days using other platforms. I was going to say that Facebook is where Microsoft were at some point in the late 70s or early 80s when it was just one out of several alternatives, but the comparison is just not good.
- toastal 8y ago
  That's you though.... In many countries, Facebook is the 'free' internet citizens can interact with friends on. It can be used to leverage and ruin your social cred because of how intertwined and unchecked Facebook is in places like Myanmar.
  - drdeadringer 8y ago
    I was thinking similar. What if OP was living in a place where a cell phone and Facebook were "The Internet"? What if that was all OP knew and understood regarding such topics?
- maire 8y ago
  Sorry - but Facebook made it trivially easy for a small group to put up a website. This is why we depend on it more than you realize. You can go to a Facebook based business site without having a Facebook account. I try not to use Facebook. I had to let my family and friends know because they are setting up party invitations and making announcements on Facebook. OK - so far so good. They post on Facebook then send me a private message. Then the camp fire happened in California (the Paradise fire). My brother in law's house burned and he is staying with us. He is not technically literate. Butte county is putting all disaster recovery information and streaming town hall meetings through Facebook! So I am back on Facebook to help my brother in law rebuild his home!

lmilcin 8y ago

You need to finance any buyout. There are three main sources you can use: cash, loan or stake in the company. Stake offers and loans are largely dependant on the image of health of the company. Remember, the calculated market value of company is mostly a promise of future income. If this promise is seen as unrealistic or too risky then the market value will crash and the main sources of its buying power can vanish overnight.

jasode 8y ago

>, they can just continue to buy all the other new social network that pop-up Yes, many people have this fatalistic perspective about FB but they shouldn't because Zuckerberg can't buy all the competition. Buying a company requires a willing seller[0]. Consider that Facebook itself rejected offers from Viacom (~$1.5 billion), Yahoo (~$1 billion), Microsoft ($24 billion), etc.[1][2] The bigger companies such as Microsoft can't force Zuckerberg to sell if he doesn't want to sell. Likewise, Facebook tried to buy Snapchat for $3 billion but Evan Spiegel said "no". Yes, Snapchat is no longer a threat but that doesn't mean another superior competitor can't rise up as a new threat that MZ can't buy. [0] my previous comment with other examples: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15733501 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15733501 [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/all-the-companies-that-ever-tried-to-buy-facebook-2010-5#nbc-met-with-facebook-in-2005-8 https://www.businessinsider.com/all-the-companies-that-ever-... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/video/2016/10/21/steve-ballmer-microsoft-tried-to-buy-facebook.html https://www.cnbc.com/video/2016/10/21/steve-ballmer-microsof...

user5994461 8y ago
These offers were a joke. Try adding one zero. Pretty sure VC would give a billion with little strings attached to any company that's threatening Facebook. Every seller has a price. WhatsApp went for $16B.
- rapsey 8y ago
  They were not a joke. They were at an earlier stage of growth and all those prices were fair for what it was at the time.
  - user5994461 8y ago
    Don't be surprised when a company in early stages of growth (tens of millions of users with great potential for more) prefers to continue than take an early exit. The Microsoft deal looks incredibly one sided: https://www.businessinsider.com/steve-ballmer-microsoft-tried-to-buy-facebook-for-24-billion-2016-10 https://www.businessinsider.com/steve-ballmer-microsoft-trie... Anyway, prices are up. There is more cash available now than there was 10 years ago, not to mention than being acquired by Google/Facebook/Microsoft is a better brand name than Viacom. With funding rounds in over a hundred millions, the founders might not even get a good cut out of a (single) billion dollar sale.

buboard 8y ago

It doesnt even need to continue as a social network. They have a strong foothold in AI and are leading strong with their own DL framework.

giancarlostoro 8y ago
Serious question but what are examples of this? I can usually think of all the AI things Google (and Microsoft, Apple and Amazon) is (/are) working on, I'm not all that familiar with Facebook and AI.
- kgraves 8y ago
  https://research.fb.com/category/facebook-ai-research/ https://research.fb.com/category/facebook-ai-research/
- buboard 8y ago
  Pytorch
maeln 8y ago
I am far from being a expert in this field but isn't Facebook big advantage in AI is being a social network and having access to a huge amount of data ? As such, isn't their AI business very reliant on them being in the social network market ?
jcfrei 8y ago
I'm pretty sure the profit margins and revenue for their potential AI applications are nowhere close to what they get from advertisements right now.

WhompingWindows 8y ago

What are examples of a big mistake, in your eyes?