> it seems to be common knowledge in the startup community( and everywhere else? ) that a recession is just around the corner. Is it based on gut feeling or s

> it seems to be common knowledge in the startup community( and everywhere else? ) that a recession is just around the corner. Is it based on gut feeling or something else? Because there has been talk of recession since the last recession. People talking about how the last recession is going to become bigger and bigger. And while stock and other assets form the bigger outer picture where people can see the recession that is not the complete picture. One of the biggest things happens during recession is risk aversion. So, people stop investing in risky assets like stocks and riskier stuff like equity in startups are worse off. This has a knock on effect where companies have less money to spend on stuff. So, they cut down on spending which then affects projects, jobs etc. That said, we don't really have a strict metric to actually gauge if recession has arrived. Some believe in looking at oil prices while others at fiscal deficits. I personally believe in Michael Burry's (from The Big Short) interpretation of recession. In his 2006 letter he said: Take (the company) Nordstrom, a higher-end retailer benefiting from most every macro trend today. Its 11,5% pre-tax margin in 2005 surpassed 10% for the first time since the company went public in 1971, and its margins rose from 1,5% to greater than 7% in the last four years. Net income is five times what it was in 2001, and return on equity rose nearly fourfold. Similar stories abound, though not necessarily to all to this degree. If this is not a peak in a dramatic debt-fueled economic boom, well, it certainly looks like one. We are seeing something similar happen right now. But it certainly doesn't mean that recession is just around the corner, rather it is slowly coming.