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>I suspect Blue Apron will survive as it will probably be taken over or bought out. It's kinda the leader of the pack and the market will eventually consolidate

>I suspect Blue Apron will survive as it will probably be taken over or bought out. It's kinda the leader of the pack and the market will eventually consolidate. It also helps that I might have helped I bought about $1000 discounted gift cards at Costco. I'm not so sure. Even most people I know who have tried Blue Apron tend to either regress back to not cooking or they "graduate" to buying their own ingredients and planning their own meals. It's not like grocery delivery is that different or hard to do. I actually think it is pretty great as a way to build the habit of cooking at home and to get comfortable enough in your kitchen. But it only takes about a month to do that. Afterwards it's so much cheaper and easier to just handle the recipes and cooking yourself. Once you get a feel for proportions and learn some staple recipes Blue Apron adds very little extra value and a lot of extra headache (no flexibility in the menus, fixed proportions, etc.) So there isn't much point in doing it. Also, their vegetarian options too often tend to either be carbs + cheese or bland vegetables. I'd much rather just make Indian food at home.

chad_strategic 8y ago
Well... that's what makes a market... Differing opinions. I will probably pick up some stock in the next few months. Because I will put my money where my mouth is. (pun intended) They are changing their business strategies and growing in different ways. (They sell prepackaged food in Costco in California).
Retric 8y ago
As long as you have low customer acquisition costs you can still have a large stable business like this. Look at huggies diapers, some kids spend a lot longer in diapers than others but generally it’s a short but profitable window.
- naravara 8y ago
  >As long as you have low customer acquisition costs Blue Apron doesn't though. And it doesn't seem like they have much luck lowering their customer acquisition costs. There are a lot more options for feeding yourself at or below $10 per meal than there are for containing poop.
- jonwachob91 8y ago
  >>> Look at huggies diapers, some kids spend a lot longer in diapers than others but generally it’s a short but profitable window. Diapers are a much more stable market, with predictable values in birth rates that can be used to expand or contract the business as needed. Excess supply can also be stored for an indefinite period of time. With food and home cooked meals, you never know when someone is going to wake up decide they want to learn to cook. Do they decide to learn to cook when they are 18? When they get married? When they have kids? When they get diagnosed with some diet related health condition? There is too much uncertainty about when someone will enter the target segment for there ever to be a stable market. Excess supply also doesn't store well, it'll go bad before the market can absorb the excess supply ;) Perishable goods have a very different business model than non-perishable goods ;)
bduerst 8y ago
Yep - I'm in the latter. Did Blue Apron for about 9 months and then "graduated" to making my own recipes based on my experience cooking with them. Just last night I made gnocchi with a gorgonzola cream sauce. It's a great way to learn how to cook, and though I cancelled a while ago, I do sometimes miss their precise portioning. That is probably Blue Apron's best long-term value for customers: accurate grocery delivery.
hn_throwaway_99 8y ago
Completely agree. Blue Apron occupies a very unstable niche, with high customer acquisition costs to boot. I'm in the "former" category, where after about a month I realized (a) I like to eat more than I like to cook, and (b) the time it took me to prepare 3 meals a week made it actually more of a stress-inducing thing to me than a relaxing thing.

chad_strategic 8y ago

Well... that's what makes a market... Differing opinions. I will probably pick up some stock in the next few months. Because I will put my money where my mouth is. (pun intended) They are changing their business strategies and growing in different ways. (They sell prepackaged food in Costco in California).

Retric 8y ago

As long as you have low customer acquisition costs you can still have a large stable business like this. Look at huggies diapers, some kids spend a lot longer in diapers than others but generally it’s a short but profitable window.

naravara 8y ago
>As long as you have low customer acquisition costs Blue Apron doesn't though. And it doesn't seem like they have much luck lowering their customer acquisition costs. There are a lot more options for feeding yourself at or below $10 per meal than there are for containing poop.
jonwachob91 8y ago
>>> Look at huggies diapers, some kids spend a lot longer in diapers than others but generally it’s a short but profitable window. Diapers are a much more stable market, with predictable values in birth rates that can be used to expand or contract the business as needed. Excess supply can also be stored for an indefinite period of time. With food and home cooked meals, you never know when someone is going to wake up decide they want to learn to cook. Do they decide to learn to cook when they are 18? When they get married? When they have kids? When they get diagnosed with some diet related health condition? There is too much uncertainty about when someone will enter the target segment for there ever to be a stable market. Excess supply also doesn't store well, it'll go bad before the market can absorb the excess supply ;) Perishable goods have a very different business model than non-perishable goods ;)

bduerst 8y ago

Yep - I'm in the latter. Did Blue Apron for about 9 months and then "graduated" to making my own recipes based on my experience cooking with them. Just last night I made gnocchi with a gorgonzola cream sauce. It's a great way to learn how to cook, and though I cancelled a while ago, I do sometimes miss their precise portioning. That is probably Blue Apron's best long-term value for customers: accurate grocery delivery.

hn_throwaway_99 8y ago

Completely agree. Blue Apron occupies a very unstable niche, with high customer acquisition costs to boot. I'm in the "former" category, where after about a month I realized (a) I like to eat more than I like to cook, and (b) the time it took me to prepare 3 meals a week made it actually more of a stress-inducing thing to me than a relaxing thing.