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Do you have dates for those quotes? I suspect many (if not all of them) refer to pre-nomination model. Silver explicitly addressed how he messed up the primary
by grzm 8y ago
Do you have dates for those quotes? I suspect many (if not all of them) refer to pre-nomination model. Silver explicitly addressed how he messed up the primary model by not trusting the numbers in his 18 May 2016 blog post "How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump: Trump’s nomination shows the need for a more rigorous approach."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pund...
- leereeves 8y agoYes, they were pre-nomination articles. At that time Silver was acting in the way an earlier comment in this thread said he does not act: > saying things with false-certainty and then basking in self-proclaimed genius when luck happened to run in his favor Something seems to have gone wrong at 538 after their stellar performance in 2012. In 2016 even their Congressional predictions were only 90% accurate. Or perhaps 2016 was simply different from past elections.