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Nate Silver didn't always hedge his bets; early in the election he was making emphatic (and wrong) predictions like these: > The lesson, rather, is that Trump’
by leereeves 8y ago
Nate Silver didn't always hedge his bets; early in the election he was making emphatic (and wrong) predictions like these:
> The lesson, rather, is that Trump’s campaign will fail by one means or another.
> Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
> Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so.
- grzm 8y agoDo you have dates for those quotes? I suspect many (if not all of them) refer to pre-nomination model. Silver explicitly addressed how he messed up the primary model by not trusting the numbers in his 18 May 2016 blog post "How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump: Trump’s nomination shows the need for a more rigorous approach." https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pund...
- leereeves 8y agoYes, they were pre-nomination articles. At that time Silver was acting in the way an earlier comment in this thread said he does not act: > saying things with false-certainty and then basking in self-proclaimed genius when luck happened to run in his favor Something seems to have gone wrong at 538 after their stellar performance in 2012. In 2016 even their Congressional predictions were only 90% accurate. Or perhaps 2016 was simply different from past elections.