I think this is a mischaracterization of Nate's own words. He certainly stakes his own reputation on the accuracy of his forecast. They spend a lot of time look

I think this is a mischaracterization of Nate's own words. He certainly stakes his own reputation on the accuracy of his forecast. They spend a lot of time looking back and seeing how accurate the model was for the election as a whole. There are two kinds of things Nate is saying here, and they are related but distinct: 1. Educating readers/listeners about how 20% chances happen all the time 2. Internal analysis and external reporting of how often his 20% predictions were right. If 538 predicts a group of 100 congressmen to all have a 20% chance of being elected and then 21 do get elected, the model did well and Nate's work is worth money to ABC and his reputation is improved (or maintained). If instead 33 of those congressmen get elected, the opposite result happens.