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I suspect the main reason he was attacked by Taleb was this misuse of language, which can be misinterpreted as meaning a 50-50 chance. Like others have said, he
by 0-_-0 8y ago
I suspect the main reason he was attacked by Taleb was this misuse of language, which can be misinterpreted as meaning a 50-50 chance. Like others have said, he could have said "far from impossible" or "entirely possible" to convey that he meant the estimate had a large variance. Then again, I think Taleb should have realized this and not attacked him for simply failing to convey variance correctly. This seems like another example of Twitter bringing out the wrost in people...
- kilburn 8y agoApparently there's people who have hard feelings in this argument too. I could understand people downvoting my comment (it may be interpreted as harsh even if that wasn't my intention) but... yours? Something weird is at play here.
- 0-_-0 8y agoMaybe it's just people being emotionally invested in Nate Silver being right (because they defended him publicly before for example), so they interpret any criticism of Nate Silver as a personal attack.