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To continue the dice analogy- I can imagine a world where gambling sharks arrive at the roulette wheel in casinos, wearing hidden google-glass-ish devices, and
by CompelTechnic 8y ago
To continue the dice analogy-
I can imagine a world where gambling sharks arrive at the roulette wheel in casinos, wearing hidden google-glass-ish devices, and place bets while the ball is in motion. Unbeknownst to everyone else, their device performed real time computation based on the position and velocity of the ball and wheel, and gave an output of a tight probability distribution (10% chance 25 red, 35% chance 29 black, 40% chance 12 red, 10% chance 8 black, 5% other). The sharks place bets based on these distributions, and make a bunch of money over the course of a few games.
This raises the questions:
1. To the public (not the sharks), all of the possible outcomes of the game have equal probability. Would it be correct to say that all of their uncertainty regarding the outcome of the roulette wheel is aleatory?
2. To the card sharks, they DO have a model with knowledge of game outcomes. So should one say that the distribution output by the device is aleatory uncertainty, and the remaining uncertainty (the fact that there is a distribution instead of a single predicted outcome) in the system is epistimic?
3. #1 and #2 differ in presuming that such a device is present. In absense of such a device, or in general, in absense of a tested model, is it correct to say that all uncertainty is epistimic?
- mercutio2 8y agoYou don’t have to just imagine such a world. This actually happened in the 1970s (although it was a shoe computer and a team of well trained physicists, not Google Glass)! https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Eudaemonic_Pie https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Eudaemonic_Pie