3 ms·
> basking in self-proclaimed genius when luck happened to run in his favor. I have read read Black Swan and I think Taleb's central thesis is there are valid e
by killjoywashere 8y ago
> basking in self-proclaimed genius when luck happened to run in his favor.
I have read read Black Swan and I think Taleb's central thesis is there are valid epistimic gaps in every model, and that suggest there is at least one family of hedge strategies where the goal is to think as creatively as possible about what we don't know, but what could be, so as to reframe that lack of knowledge as a plan to go tromping around in a jungle looking for holes. But to do so requires wide-ranging knowledge across many domains, which is hard to develop.
- mturmon 8y agoThis is a smart observation. There has been some theoretical work on the intersection of game theory and uncertainty quantification [1]. One part of it is a mathematical take on what you described - you have a system which is not pricing risk correctly, due over-confidence in model predictions. If so, there should be money to be made in placing bets on that system. [1] https://arc.aiaa.org/doi/pdf/10.2514/6.2017-1092 https://arc.aiaa.org/doi/pdf/10.2514/6.2017-1092