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Using the phrase "extremely possible" as an expert is either a gross mistake or intentional misguidance. "Possibility" is like "optimality" in the sense that t
by kilburn 8y ago
Using the phrase "extremely possible" as an expert is either a gross mistake or intentional misguidance.
"Possibility" is like "optimality" in the sense that they are binary attributes and thus don't admin grades. Something either is or isn't possible. Qualifying something as "more possible" is a mistake, and qualifying it as "extremely possible" is just nonsense.
A guy who lives from probabilistic analysis should now better.
- 0-_-0 8y agoI suspect the main reason he was attacked by Taleb was this misuse of language, which can be misinterpreted as meaning a 50-50 chance. Like others have said, he could have said "far from impossible" or "entirely possible" to convey that he meant the estimate had a large variance. Then again, I think Taleb should have realized this and not attacked him for simply failing to convey variance correctly. This seems like another example of Twitter bringing out the wrost in people...
- kilburn 8y agoApparently there's people who have hard feelings in this argument too. I could understand people downvoting my comment (it may be interpreted as harsh even if that wasn't my intention) but... yours? Something weird is at play here.
- 0-_-0 8y agoMaybe it's just people being emotionally invested in Nate Silver being right (because they defended him publicly before for example), so they interpret any criticism of Nate Silver as a personal attack.