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However, FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 30% chance of winning, and in the days before the election was stressing the fact that a Trump win was very possible. The
by FactolSarin 8y ago
However, FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 30% chance of winning, and in the days before the election was stressing the fact that a Trump win was very possible.
They didn't predict his win, but they did better than anyone else in the mainstream.
- scott_s 8y agoI agree. I think people's shock was a failure of imagination. They couldn't imagine a Trump win, so even though the polling data showed he could, they discounted it. That, I think, explains why Silver was criticized so heavily for saying what he did days before the election: they couldn't imagine a Trump win, therefore he must lose, which Silver must also think, therefore Silver is trolling.
- paganel 8y ago> They didn't predict his win, but they did better than anyone else in the mainstream. Kind of proving my point, as it shows that Nate Silver was the best at crystal-balling the election result. Afaik 30% is still bellow the 50% (or 0.5/1) threshold generally needed to make a decision, as the article also mentions.