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It doesn't need to be a simple bet. It could incorporate the volatility which Taleb might believe shouldn't be present in an unflawed model.
by mhb 8y ago
It doesn't need to be a simple bet. It could incorporate the volatility which Taleb might believe shouldn't be present in an unflawed model.
- lixtra 8y agoIndeed after skimming through the paper[1] (I find it hard to grasp without a solid background) it seems that Taleb wants to play this game every day before the election and expects to come out ahead on election day when all the bets are settled. [1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf