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But that doesn't seem to be the nature of their disagreement. Taleb's main complaint seems to be about how the swings in the prediction probabilities far out f
by dagw 8y ago
But that doesn't seem to be the nature of their disagreement. Taleb's main complaint seems to be about how the swings in the prediction probabilities far out from the event indicates a fundamental flaw in how the underlying model uses probability.
That being said it would be a fun little exercise to see who much money would be made if they bet had $1 on every race 538 predicted in 2016 and 2018 using the model odds.
- mhb 8y agoIt doesn't need to be a simple bet. It could incorporate the volatility which Taleb might believe shouldn't be present in an unflawed model.
- lixtra 8y agoIndeed after skimming through the paper[1] (I find it hard to grasp without a solid background) it seems that Taleb wants to play this game every day before the election and expects to come out ahead on election day when all the bets are settled. [1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf