I don't think delusion is a fair take: FiveThirtyEight Prediction: 48.5% to 44.9% Real outcome: 48.2% to 46.1% I agree that the horserace coverage is silly (e

I don't think delusion is a fair take: FiveThirtyEight Prediction: 48.5% to 44.9% Real outcome: 48.2% to 46.1% I agree that the horserace coverage is silly (especially given how polling operations use sampling and such), but its better to look at aggregate trends in polling than to ridiculously overcover outlier polls. I also certainly don't think its fair to say "28.6% chance he wins" is a "massive win" prediction. Silver's take was regarded as indefensibly right-leaning and attacked.