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But 538 was giving predictions for different events each day in the moving "now cast" so there was no arbitrage.
by lazyasciiart 8y ago
But 538 was giving predictions for different events each day in the moving "now cast" so there was no arbitrage.
- ericdykstra 8y agoThe forecast still fluctuated way too much to be correct, as can be seen in Taleb's paper, which cites the "forecast" and not the "now cast."