I appreciate the stuff about two types of certainties, but where are they actually arguing anything remotely relevant like that? As far as I can tell, based on

I appreciate the stuff about two types of certainties, but where are they actually arguing anything remotely relevant like that? As far as I can tell, based on what I see bubble up to my twitter feed and what tweets are displayed in this post, the disagreement is based entirely on Talib’s claim that Silver switched his prediction from 80% to 50%. This really has nothing to do with actually understanding probability or prediction models. It’s just Talib sharing some other pundit’s deliberate misinterpretation of a single phrase deliberately taken out of context in an interview with Silver. I don’t think their disagreement has much to do with science or mathematics. I think the two guys have big online followings, each leaning heavily toward two different political ideologies, and the two leaders just have to try to beat each other up on a Twitter to decide which side is better.