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Nate Silver always calls the nowcast (blue line) for what it is - a forecast for if the election was held that day. The forecast, made a few days before electio
by cm2012 8y ago
Nate Silver always calls the nowcast (blue line) for what it is - a forecast for if the election was held that day. The forecast, made a few days before election day, is the official forecast and the one that beats most other estimates.
- MAXPOOL 8y agoI'm just eyeballing it, but it seems like linear trend line of the nowcast (blue line), would be very close to the official forecast (red dot).
- OscarCunningham 8y agoThat blue line is a record of Silver's forecast, not the nowcast. You can compare them here https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/