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So far Bitcoin investor behavior has been remarkably consistent. https://plot.ly/~unchained/37/bitcoin-utxo-age-distribution/#/ https://plot.ly/~unchained/37/b
by Obi_Juan_Kenobi 8y ago
So far Bitcoin investor behavior has been remarkably consistent.
https://plot.ly/~unchained/37/bitcoin-utxo-age-distribution/#/ https://plot.ly/~unchained/37/bitcoin-utxo-age-distribution/...
There's a lot to dissect in this chart, so take some time with it. Some observations:
* Most of the market is traded during bull runs. Each bull run sees a large segment of year+ holders take profits. Between bubbles, price-discovery is driven by short-term trading.
* Bear markets see remarkably little activity from holders. 'Hold waves' form between bubble cycles that clearly demonstrate that the majority of coins are held by 'firm hands' that bought in bull runs.
* Right now, a large segment of people that bought in the 2013 bull are starting to mature into the 5+ year bracket. A significant amount of coins are still being held in this way. It's remarkable to see it in real time. Neither the crash to $150 or the run to $20k motivated a large selloff.
* It took about 2 years after the 2017 bull for <6month bracket to fall to ~25%. It only took one year this time.
* Age distribution is becoming more bimodal: stubborn holders and large healthy active market.
* The current price crash is rather anomalous. An incredible 4% of coins in existence moved out of 3+ year bands very suddenly. This is among the 3 or 4 largest shifts, the others occurring in much different contexts. Given how sudden it was, and how specific the age band, I have my guess as to whether this is a cause or effect of the drop.
The main takeaway from this is that Bitcoin investors are remarkably willing to hold. "Hodl" is more than a meme, and the current crop seems about the same as previous ones in this regard, with a growing 'hold wave'.
I also think the last 'pop' was a lot worse due to the looming existential scaling threat. This has been addressed in an unoptimal way, but one that is remarkably true to Bitcoin and overall encouraging.
- majewsky 8y ago> The main takeaway from this is that Bitcoin investors are remarkably willing to hold. How does this look like in other markets? It sure tastes like survivorship bias. As in: "Investors are willing to hold" because everyone else already quit.