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After the 2007/2008 financial crisis—the worst financial crisis in the history of the US—the S&P500 dropped 54.1% from peak to trough. BTC is currently down ove

After the 2007/2008 financial crisis—the worst financial crisis in the history of the US—the S&P500 dropped 54.1% from peak to trough. BTC is currently down over 80% since its peak. Let's also make sure we understand that the S&P500 (or any stock ownership) is owning _business(es)_. Businesses make money, and they return that money to their owners. Bitcoin is purely speculative and depends on someone else buying it from you, presumably for more than you bought it for. Good luck finding another batch of suckers to fall for this after that last round.

ScottAS 8y ago
Have you ever heard of gold?
- berbec 8y ago
  Gold has a very long history, useful applications in industry, jewelry etc and is a defacto currency the world-wide. Crypto is... None of these. Whatever crypto is or will become, gold it, currently, is not.
  - ScottAS 8y ago
    We value 3 swimming pools of an arbitrary substance at 7 trillion dollars. Any utility for it is irrelevant at this valuation - it does not produce dividends. Gold is a brand, and the value of gold is a shared illusion. Bitcoin is much newer brand but it's not inconceivable that it could maintain a similar shared illusion.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
tim333 8y ago
If you look at the history of Bitcoin's price, it has dropped 80+ % about three times before and then bottomed and gone up like 10x over the next three or so years. I find that quite a good argument to put to the next bunch of suckers.
- tim333 8y ago
  as in https://twitter.com/PhillipNunnUK/status/1073977573145788416 https://twitter.com/PhillipNunnUK/status/1073977573145788416
- the_gastropod 8y ago
  Bitcoin has about 9 years of history. And until ~October 2017 it was a pretty obscure thing, primarily known about by “nerds”. That is no longer the case. I will leave myself a calendar reminder to check this thread in 5 years. I will be very surprised if BTC is trading higher then than it is now (~$3500).
  - jki275 8y ago
    Bitcoin hasn't been obscure since 2011 or so. As far as 5 years from now -- who knows where it will be trading. I suspect it will be higher than it is now, but there's never a guarantee on any of this.
    - dagw 8y ago
      Bitcoin hasn't been obscure since 2011 or so. My father-in-law didn't know what Bitcoin was in 2011, nor were the sort of newspapers he read covering Bitcoin in prominent articles. Neither of those things are true in 2018.
    - the_gastropod 8y ago
      > Bitcoin hasn't been obscure since 2011 or so. Obscure for who? I doubt very much your average grocery store cashier, barber, or airline pilot had ever heard of Bitcoin. The farthest-back data I can find (from 2013) shows BTC had a market cap of ~$800 Million. At its peak, it was over $600 Billion. Amongst the HN crowd, BTC was not obscure in 2011—you're right.
      - jki275 8y ago
        That doesn't make it obscure. MtGox wasn't a secret. It was relatively well known and covered in the news, and I don't mean tech news. 2011, maybe 2012, was when bitcoin entered the public lexicon and it's only become more and more ubiquitous since.

ScottAS 8y ago

Have you ever heard of gold?

berbec 8y ago
Gold has a very long history, useful applications in industry, jewelry etc and is a defacto currency the world-wide. Crypto is... None of these. Whatever crypto is or will become, gold it, currently, is not.
- ScottAS 8y ago
  We value 3 swimming pools of an arbitrary substance at 7 trillion dollars. Any utility for it is irrelevant at this valuation - it does not produce dividends. Gold is a brand, and the value of gold is a shared illusion. Bitcoin is much newer brand but it's not inconceivable that it could maintain a similar shared illusion.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

tim333 8y ago

If you look at the history of Bitcoin's price, it has dropped 80+ % about three times before and then bottomed and gone up like 10x over the next three or so years. I find that quite a good argument to put to the next bunch of suckers.

tim333 8y ago
as in https://twitter.com/PhillipNunnUK/status/1073977573145788416 https://twitter.com/PhillipNunnUK/status/1073977573145788416
the_gastropod 8y ago
Bitcoin has about 9 years of history. And until ~October 2017 it was a pretty obscure thing, primarily known about by “nerds”. That is no longer the case. I will leave myself a calendar reminder to check this thread in 5 years. I will be very surprised if BTC is trading higher then than it is now (~$3500).
- jki275 8y ago
  Bitcoin hasn't been obscure since 2011 or so. As far as 5 years from now -- who knows where it will be trading. I suspect it will be higher than it is now, but there's never a guarantee on any of this.
  - dagw 8y ago
    Bitcoin hasn't been obscure since 2011 or so. My father-in-law didn't know what Bitcoin was in 2011, nor were the sort of newspapers he read covering Bitcoin in prominent articles. Neither of those things are true in 2018.
  - the_gastropod 8y ago
    > Bitcoin hasn't been obscure since 2011 or so. Obscure for who? I doubt very much your average grocery store cashier, barber, or airline pilot had ever heard of Bitcoin. The farthest-back data I can find (from 2013) shows BTC had a market cap of ~$800 Million. At its peak, it was over $600 Billion. Amongst the HN crowd, BTC was not obscure in 2011—you're right.
    - jki275 8y ago
      That doesn't make it obscure. MtGox wasn't a secret. It was relatively well known and covered in the news, and I don't mean tech news. 2011, maybe 2012, was when bitcoin entered the public lexicon and it's only become more and more ubiquitous since.