She doesn't fit, but it isn't as extreme as you might think. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people https://en.wikipedia.org/wik

She doesn't fit, but it isn't as extreme as you might think. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_pe... there are 43 people who reached 115, and we know how old 40 of them turned out to be. 9 of those made it to 117. That fits pretty well with the 50% odds of dying each year. She supposedly lived about 7.5 more years after that point. What would her odds be? 0.5^7.5 = 0.0055242717280199 are pretty bad. But with a pool of 40, the odds that SOMEONE lived that long turn are 40x that, which is around 22%. When you combine worse healthcare, challenges around record keeping, and specific evidence of fraud, I am inclined to believe that she was fraud. But the statistical case for it isn't as overwhelming as I would naively guess. (That said, access to a larger data set could easily make the odds against her existence much more extreme.)