4 ms·
Actually thoughtful and worth reading. The problem with climate change warnings is that they depend on a prediction about the long-term (30+ years) future. And
by tlb 8y ago
Actually thoughtful and worth reading.
The problem with climate change warnings is that they depend on a prediction about the long-term (30+ years) future. And even people who understand the analysis find it hard to believe, deep down, any predictions about the world that far from now. From Malthus to Huxley and Philip K. Dick, to Millenarianism, almost all dramatic long term predictions turned out wrong.
- mikeash 8y agoSome long term predictions are extremely accurate. For example, there will be a total solar eclipse visible from Madagascar and parts of Africa on September 4, 2100. That’s pretty certain. Climate science isn’t anywhere near that level of reliability, of course. But it’s a hell of a lot better than novelists handwaving about the future.
- tlb 8y agoWhen predictions of what was then called the greenhouse effect first came to the public consciousness in the 1970s, they were pretty handwavy. So most people over 60 today would have dismissed those early predictions as yet another science fiction doomsday scenario when they first heard about it. That wasn't an unreasonable conclusion based on how reliable the science was in the 70s. They should, of course, update their beliefs based on 2018 science, but a lot of people stop doing that as they get older.